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<OCTOBER 30, 2008 Gap Narrows in Florida and Ohio, Not Pennsylvania

 

By SARA MUR

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

New polling suggests the presidential race is tightening in the battleground states of Ohio and Florida, though not in Pennsylvania, where Sen. John McCain is fighting to flip a big swing state into his column.

 

http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-AN477_McCain_D_20081029183947.jpg Associated Press Sen. John McCain gestures while addressing supporters during a campaign rally in Miami, Fla.

 

 

 

 

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Sen. McCain now is within striking distance in Florida, where Sen. Barack Obama leads 47% to 45%, a new poll by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute finds. Less than a week ago, Sen. Obama led by five percentage points there. (See the Qunnipiac poll.)

 

In Ohio, considered a Republican must-win, Sen. Obama still has a comfortable lead of 51% to 42%, Quinnipiac found. The good news for Sen. McCain is he appears to be closing the gap there; last week, Sen. Obama led by 14 points.

 

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In Pennsylvania, though, the news for Sen. McCain is gloomier. There, a new Quinnipiac survey finds that the race stands at 53% to 41% for Sen. Obama, almost unchanged from last week. Sen. McCain has been pushing hard for the state's 21 electoral votes with both campaign stops and advertising dollars.

 

The polls, conducted Oct. 22-26, have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6-2.7 percentage points.

 

In Florida, "McCain is rolling up a large margin...among non-college-educated whites," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of Quinnipiac's polling institute. "If McCain is going to make a comeback, he has to basically drive up margins in Ohio and Pennsylvania, as he has in Florida, among those voters."

 

With less than a week left until Election Day, the new surveys suggest a possible tightening of the race. For its part, the McCain campaign says it is optimistic about its swing-state performance. In a memo to the campaign Tuesday, lead pollster Bill McInturff wrote, "The campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states...with our numbers IMPROVING sharply."

 

Still, the surveys also show how daunting the task remains for Sen. McCain. Other polling in crucial states also points to Obama advantages. New polls from the Associated Press, for example, show Sen. Obama leading by two points in Florida, seven points in Ohio and 12 points in Pennsylvania. Those polls have a four-point margin of error.

 

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Battlegrounds Test Obama, McCain

 

3:00 Presidential candidates Barack Obama and John McCain are racing for control of battleground states Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute discusses the latest polls. (Oct. 29)

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll shows a closer race in Ohio, with Sen. Obama leading 48% to 45% among likely voters -- within the 3.5-percentage-point margin of error.

 

Sen. McCain also has a problem on his hands in other hard-fought states, most notably Virginia. The AP's survey shows Sen. Obama leading 49% to 42% in the commonwealth, a traditional Republican stronghold in presidential elections.

 

It would be difficult for Sen. McCain to win without both Florida and Ohio. He also may need to pick up either Pennsylvania or Virginia to offset losses in smaller, traditionally Republican states. If Sen. Obama turns some of those smaller states to his favor, victories in Ohio and Florida by Sen. McCain probably won't be enough to get him to the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

 

That's why the Republican senator and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, have been making an intense push in the Keystone State. They also have increased their television ads in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The McCain campaign was directing roughly 78% of its TV ads to those three states as of Monday, according to Nielsen Co.

 

For Sen. Obama, one cautionary note comes from analysts who say he can't consider states safe unless he's above the 50% mark in pre-election polling, because it's unclear how many undecided voters will break his way on Nov. 4.

 

"Historically, the undecided break against the party in power," Mr. Brown said, but "Sen. Obama is relatively new to the political landscape. There are people who question his experience."

 

Write to Sara Murray at sara.murray@wsj.com