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Wx: 2010/2011 Winter Forecasts


jeffro

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  • 2 weeks later...
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lets hope this doesnt verify. this would be an assload of rain for thanksgiving day.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p60_072m.gif

 

on another note, another system is developing for the first week of december. so far is looking like a good chance for snow, but as for how much, is still uncertain. also 10 days out, but something to keep an eye on. I think we could also see a brief period of lake effect as the lake temps are still above freezing.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-13767-1290497885.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

damn, this just out. id be happy with a slightly eastward shift, which is possible due to the massive cold front pushing down from canada, but overall this is looking to be insane. plus the winds behind this will be 20-40mph. Blizzard scenario. Dont forget the lake effect behind it again. This could get good.

 

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TP0-ZLBhbFI/AAAAAAAABKQ/LxnJrq_wo0s/s640/gfs_namer_162_precip_p36.gif

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True Wagnor. lol

 

different model from the last one, as this model is most favorable for our area. :)

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TP7oJV0_ntI/AAAAAAAABKk/xZkAPtL4fKo/s800/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06120.gif.jpg

 

Temps associated with the image above.

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TP7ozxRCCpI/AAAAAAAABKo/qNOzQTsfm4s/s800/12zgfs850mbTSLPNA120.gif.jpg

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Jeff, that looks like rain for us, not snow, snow should be northwest of the low would it not? That model would be drawing warm air up from the gulf.

 

Edit: For sure it would if you look at the temp map, we would be in the positive numbers Celcius. (above freezing)

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huge trough of cold air comming down out of canada. let me show you the timeline of where that 32* line is. Green/blue is precip, obviously. notice how it starts out with the 32* line just to our north, then slowly creeps south into the precip by hour 126. (keep in mind that it can snow with temps as high as 36*, and probably will, because the ground is so fucking frozen lol.)

 

Hour 114:

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TP7zd2TksaI/AAAAAAAABK8/NE5X2KBW5yA/s800/3.gif.jpg

 

120:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TP7oJV0_ntI/AAAAAAAABKk/xZkAPtL4fKo/s800/12zgfs850mbTSLPp06120.gif.jpg

 

126:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TP7y0zxVZwI/AAAAAAAABKs/7VQvoRp2jNo/s800/1.gif.jpg

 

hour 132:

http://lh4.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TP7y1a9guaI/AAAAAAAABKw/lJasHqRhFbE/s800/2.gif.jpg

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So like 2-4"?

 

i was thinking more like 6"-12". with even a 10:1 ratio, .50" of rain would be 5"

 

and theres going to be more than a half inch.

 

 

but, keep in mind that this is 4 days out and will change. however, its narrowing in, and i bet the oh/ind border is the bullseye.

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