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Rumors of War...


ReconRat

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An American official “with knowledge of the situation” told Wired Magazine that “engineers working for the Assad regime in Syria have begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas.”

USA, Israel, Turkey, and Jordan were ready to go into Syria on Monday night and secure the chemical weapons.

edit: Oddly, the pentagon announce that activity by the Syrian engineers is not true. So one or the other is disinformation.

Oddly, the Israeli leaks are saying the Sarin gas was mixed, put on transport along with mobile artillery units, and is on it's way North to the city of Aleppo.

So pick one. signals are mixed. But there is no doubt a bunch of people are seriously worried.

Edited by ReconRat
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Not normally using this particular source, but it seems news worthy. I'll go with it since there was already distinct and unusual movement away from the Persian Gulf to "somewhere else":

"The USS Eisenhower Strike Group reached the Syrian coast Tuesday, Dec. 4 in a heavy storm after sailing through the Suez Canal from the Persian Gulf. Aboard are 8 fighter bomber squadrons of Air Wing Seven and 8,000 sailors, airmen and Marines. Together with the USS Iwo Jima, the US has now posted opposite Syria 70 fighter-bombers, 17 warships including three amphibious craft, a guided missile cruiser, 10 destroyers and frigates, and 10,000 American fighting men. Four vessels also carry Aegis anti-missile weapons."

A Russian carrier group is supposedly also on the way.

The actual point is; protecting Turkey, a NATO country, from any possible attack of any type. If truly serious, expect French, British, and a few other NATO vessels to join in.

It's bad stormy weather over there right now. Which means many things in combat and capabilities. Wait and see. Next move is Assad's. Actual targets were announced as being those military officers in charge. Making it personal. That's C3, command, control and communications.

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  • 8 months later...

Back again. Seems serious. Currently watching real time ship movements on-line, in the Western Mediterranean.

Military ships aren't labeled, but kinda obvious. Also obvious is when every one else moves away.

Watching to see if mystery ships make a run in toward shore for a launch.

Mostly want to see what range they like to launch from.

Mostly looks like players are circling near the Northern shore of the Med.

My guess would be out of all (effective) radar range, and sea skim to target below radar.

And TOT. Time on target. (All at the same time.)

Best guess is Sunday or Monday.

 

Old model sea launched UGM-109 TLAM has a range of 1550 miles.

Newer ones are 800 to 1000 miles.

 

Expect targeting to be net-centric real time updated by satellite, UAV, and stealth recon (various types).

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Rumor is that the Israelis had some one inside the Syrian unit that watches the units that handle the chemical weapons. I bet that person isn't there now. And that little bit of news probably vanished from the internet last night.

 

Israelis say Friday night or Saturday morning. Others say waiting for the UN team, and the UN team needs four days.

That would be Monday, maybe Sunday. But Britain thinks later in the week.

 

Still don't think it's going to change much over there. But that's not the point.

Edited by ReconRat
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recently released unclassified assessment of Syrian involvement in the gas attack:

http://www.cnn.com/interactive/2013/08/world/syria-documents/index.html?hpt=po_c2

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2013/08/30/text-of-u-s-assessment-on-syrias-use-of-chemical-weapons/

 

edit: UN team left. So did huge amounts of Syrian population. Short vacation out of country. Game is on, if it is on...

 

edit: The real time ship tracking on line, well, all the "unknown" ships vanished. Either left the area or turned their transponders off. Saturday morning. Alternatively, there is a sudden increase in cargo and tanker traffic. Maybe spoofing that transponder. (Aircraft carriers have to pretend to be tankers, because of their size.)

Edited by ReconRat
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Looks like a happy ending coming up. As happy as dread might be. Iran wants to move the Syrian chemical weapons to Iran for safe keeping under Iranian and Russian oversight. Or disposal. Might move back to Syria later, but that doesn't matter right now. Has to go. US retains the option to strike anywhere at anytime. This appears to be a Russian-American agreement in the works. Iran figured it out and offered as well.

 

I thought the Syrian chemical weapons were of Russian manufacture. Guess not. Maybe not even Iranian manufacture. Iran might have only supplied the supplies and instructions to Syria. Anyway it's looked at, the details originally came from Russia.

 

Not that we can claim innocence. We did the same shipping the same to Iraq, way back in the Iran-Iraq War. A mistake that we have since corrected at great expense.

 

Meanwhile, Congress gets to argue about it for a week or two. It's now their decision, although a presidental decision could still over-ride Congress.

Edited by ReconRat
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Looks like a happy ending coming up. As happy as dread might be. Iran wants to move the Syrian chemical weapons to Iran for safe keeping under Iranian and Russian oversight. Or disposal. Might move back to Syria later, but that doesn't matter right now. Has to go. US retains the option to strike anywhere at anytime. This appears to be a Russian-American agreement in the works. Iran figured it out and offered as well.

 

I thought the Syrian chemical weapons were of Russian manufacture. Guess not. Maybe not even Iranian manufacture. Iran might have only supplied the supplies and instructions to Syria. Anyway it's looked at, the details originally came from Russia.

 

Not that we can claim innocence. We did the same shipping the same to Iraq, way back in the Iran-Iraq War. A mistake that we have since corrected at great expense.

 

Meanwhile, Congress gets to argue about it for a week or two. It's now their decision, although a presidental decision could still over-ride Congress.

 

 

I read the other day that the materials were actually supplied to Syria by the UK. 

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  • 1 month later...
  • 2 months later...

Now that issues with chemical weapons has settled down...

 

A proxy war has developed between Iran and Saudi Arabia. It's in the news, but not making major headlines. And the way it's playing out, it should be. It appears to be developing into a serious war for control of a major portion of the Middle East.

 

Iran is in with Shiite control or influence over the major capital areas of Damascus in Syria, Baghdad in Iraq, and Beruit in Lebanon. Saudi Arabia is in with Sunni control or influence over Syrian rebels, and Al-Qaeda groups of each area. Western Iraq Sunni groups have also thrown in for now. Draw lines between (edit to be accurate: Aleppo, Mosul and Bagdad), and this is roughly the area of contention.The Sunni groups have some sort of control over everything in between the three cities, and are moving on the capitals themselves.

 

But... there's serious in-fighting in Syria between the rebel and Al-Qaeda factions. This happened after a rebel comeback against the Syrian Army into Aleppo. And Lebanon, of course, is no pushover with Hezbollah there.

 

And the most recent event is a Sunni rebel/Al-Qaeda move on Baghdad, after defeating the Iraqi Army and capturing to some extent the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi. This happened after the Iraqi Army made a move Westward toward the Syrian border to eliminate the threat. It didn't work. Heavy weapons and personal weapons were abandoned in the retreat to Bagdad and undoubtedly captured.

 

The odd part, is that the US is supporting the Iraqi Army with weaponry and technology, and Iran is supporting with Iranian backed militia groups located in Iraq. To some extent, we're in this together.

 

Their objective is to create a new Sunni state in this area. The major faction fighting that has declared this goal, is the ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham). Some unknown percentage of this group is Al-Qaeda. And the strange part, on any given day, it's not clear if the ISIS is supporting and fighting for the Syrian rebels, or Assad's Syrian Army.

 

The result is two (or more) fighting groups with unclear objectives, that are both equally dangerous to other countries in the area. It's become difficult to see which one should be supported or suppressed.

 

edit: Al Jazeera calls ISIS by the name ISIL (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant)

ergo al-Sham probably = Levant

Edited by ReconRat
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  • 4 months later...

Watching the D-Day movie this morning, and thinking again.

 

I see in the news that Europe has a bit of a response to Russia's "declarations of possession" in the Ukraine. They elected hard core right wing politicians in all the European elections.

 

Notice also that China's "declarations of possession" caused a backlash of increased military power in countries all around it.

 

This is where I get to say "careful what you wish for".

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  • 3 months later...

So anyway... no more "rumors of war". It's started (again), and it's Islamic State vs pretty much everyone else that won't join them.

 

So it's a caliphate. There have been so many caliphates, dynasties and empires, that they are difficult to count. Find the long list here.

 

The Ottoman Empire was the largest, and it existed until 1924. There are fundamental differences (problems) with Islamic State policy, that will potentially limit it's expansion in the extreme. But it is note worthy to point out that expansion at times in the past have spread to portions of Europe, Russia, Africa, and Asia. Yes, Europe has cause to worry. The potential to expand clearly exists.

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