I think there's a shot (50 percent, if I had to put odds on it) we get in with a win, regardless of what everyone else does - provided that the committee puts their money where their mouth has been all year long and they give preference to conference champions (and champions who won through a championship game). I believe Ohio State will have the better SOS (vs. either Baylor or TCU) and they will be the only one of those three to have played in a conference championship. So, on paper, there's reason to argue they deserve to be in over either of those teams. The problem, of course, is Ohio State's loss, which is worse than either Baylor's or TCU's - however, the committee could easily list the losses as being as lesser importance than other things, like SOS and overall body of work.
If TCU loses, we are in.
If Florida State loses, I would assume we are in (barring some catastrophic, weird scenario in which the committee put both Baylor and TCU in and left us out).
If Bama loses, I would assume we are in (barring the committee keeping Bama in and only dropping them to #4).
Baylor winning today helps keep the pressure on the committee to not put TCU in above them in the final rankings. That, in a weird way, helps Ohio State, since Baylor is below Ohio State. Thus, logic would dictate if Baylor must be over TCU (by virtue of head to head), and Ohio State must be over Baylor (by virtue of SOS), then Ohio State must be over TCU.
Alternately, if Baylor loses today, then it weakens TCU's SOS and further exacerbates their only loss. That could be enough to vault Ohio State up above TCU even with a TCU win.
Who knew we would care this much about Baylor football at the beginning of the season?