Potential Housing Plan

[LJ]

I didn't list any relavance, I didn't even say the recession is getting better or worse. I jsut said we're in one, and have been for a while. The meddling is what creates the fluxuations (as well as consumer confidence, but that's a psycology discussion), up-down-up-down, but the slope is still a downward one.

 

Also consider that this isn't just economics, it's macroeconomics. The last great depression was world-wide, and the next one will be, also. The world is ripe for it, it's not going to take much.

 

 

We are not in a recession

 

 

You can't be downward when there is growth

[Science Abuse]

We are not in a recession

 

 

You can't be downward when there is growth

lol that's cute.

 

You're focusing on a very narrow portion of a big big graph. 2 steps forward doesn't count as growth after taking 3 steps back.

[LJ]

lol that's cute

 

 

Oh, please explain it to the man with a B.S. in ECONOMICS

 

Positive cannot = negative

 

The GDP is still growing

[LJ]

please tell me what you are looking at... we have not had a negative GDP since mid 2004 I believe

[Science Abuse]

Stop looking soley at the cash dollar GDP line on your econ-hippy optimist chart and start looking at the debt and it's relation to it. They're getting closer together.

If you don't want to call that Recession per Websters dicionary, fine. "We are not in a recession at this time". But the trend is bad and getting worse, I think we can agree on that.

[TTQ B4U]

A recession is determined soley on GDP. It's defined as a "significant" decrease in economic activity over a sustained period of time. Typically, a recession is marked by two successive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product, but not always. You can still have growth on the positive side while sliding down hill fast as economic activity slows to a crawl and be in a recession with a positive GDP.

 

The determination of a recession also takes into account other factors such as payroll, sales, incomes and production levels by manufacturers, etc...

 

So let's recap....the GDP may be a tad positive (.6% in Q1... ) this time, and the Stimulus band-aids will help next quarter (see below) but there's no doubt the economy is lagging bad and slipping fast. Retail sales suck (slowest since the second quarter of 2001), our nations debts i through the roof, so the dollar sucks, thus energy costs are rising, food costs are leaping upwards, the job market isn't great, housing is fucked both from a value standpoint and new-build standpoint, credit is being crunched and thus big-ticket items sales are hurting, inventories are at a low point and in fact many folks are on a just-in-time ordering/manufacturing system....

 

hmmm....I'd call that a recession....but you won't hear it as that would panic the public...so instead the news is pushed to just tease people with talk around it. besides, it's impossible to tell for sure until we're actually in a recession as it takes time for the powers that be to compute all the numbers as they roll in.

 

Bush put the rebates everyone is getting in place to actually avoid the technical term as they know the money will be pumped right back into the economy and we'll see a slight "tick upwards".

 

Basically it will by them time before the election. Can you say Band-Aid? It's silly to expect a few hundred bucks per person to fix the problems.

 

We are not in a recession

 

 

You can't be downward when there is growth

[LJ]

A recession is determined soley on GDP. It's defined as a "significant" decrease in economic activity over a sustained period of time. Typically, a recession is marked by two successive quarters of negative growth in gross domestic product, but not always. You can still have growth on the positive side while sliding down hill fast as economic activity slows to a crawl and be in a recession with a positive GDP.

 

The determination of a recession also takes into account other factors such as payroll, sales, incomes and production levels by manufacturers, etc...

 

So let's recap....the GDP may be a tad positive this time, and the Stimulus band-aids will help next quarter (see below) but there's no doubt the economy is lagging bad and slipping fast. Retail sales suck, our nations debts i through the roof, so the dollar sucks, thus oil is on the rise, the job market isn't great, housing is fucked, credit for those that can get it is good, but the rest are renting, inventories are at a low point and in fact many folks are on a just-in-time ordering/manufacturing system....

 

hmmm....I'd call that a recession....but you won't hear it as that would panic the public...so instead the news is pushed to just tease people with talk around it.

 

Bush put the rebates everyone is getting in place to actually avoid the technical term as they know the money will be pumped right back into the economy and we'll see a slight "tick upwards".

 

Basically it will by them time before the election. Can you say Band-Aid?

 

 

I am not going all economic today, as it is my day off. but..

 

I believe we already hit bottom on this slip. The nation is STILL at full employment yada yada etc etc.

 

BTW there is no causality between the value of the dollar and anything. Fiat money is just that. $1=$1 but it being traded on the world market will have some correlation of price and events.

 

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article3876863.ece

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/08/news/economy/initial_claims/?postversion=2008050809

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/business/07leonhardt.html?ei=5124&en=dfe8da9a6e19cf12&ex=1367899200&adxnnl=1&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink&adxnnlx=1210348815-JFjnS1YCEHyBXW7XKWqzjw

http://instapundit.com/archives2/018982.php

 

deflation and inflation are cancelling each other

[TTQ B4U]

if you think the value of the US Dollar isn't impacting the economy and things I've mentioned, then you need to get out of school and go work in the real world with CEO's and Manufacturers. I guarantee you'll learn more in the first 6 months than in 18 years of books.

 

BTW there is no causality between the value of the dollar and anything.

[LJ]

if you think the value of the US Dollar isn't impacting the economy and things I've mentioned, then you need to get out of school and go work in the real world with CEO's and Manufacturers. I guarantee you'll learn more in the first 6 months than in 18 years of books.

 

 

ok asshole.. I am sucessfully self employed (well a contractor) and I work in the world markets and oil (quit my bum DFAS job).

 

Never anywhere did I say that the value of the USD is not affecting us. The value of the USD affects EVERYTHING we use on a world market scale, oil, gold, grain, etc. What i said is that what we do HERE has no causality link to the value of the USD on a world market. It is traded like a stock. The value can change on ANYTHING/ But if you have an understanding of fiat money, you will know that $1 USD will ALWAYS be $1 USD here in the United States. The traders on the world market are changing the value fo the USD worldwide. If you don't understand that, I can't help you.

[TTQ B4U]

I'm sorry you think I'm being an asshole. Not sure why I suppose I just don't see any correlation to your respones to my post about the GDP and recession. However, regarding your further comments:

 

What we do here in this country absolutely has an affect on the USD in the world market. We are suffering most from a huge federal budget deficit - annual government spending that is higher than tax revenues...yet giving away tax revenues in the form of a Stimulus package is Bushes way of solving the problem. It's simply his way of helping the republicans in the election and avoiding a public out-cry of a recession under his last few months of office.

 

We as a country buy more shit from other countries than we sell and what we're buying we are buying on credit because we have no money. The trade and budget deficits have doubled since 9/11 thanks to Bush and his way of running things....and that has impact on the value of the dollar in the market.

 

Job numbers are up, but payroll is down. We farm out everything and eliminate high paying jobs to bring in low paying ones. But I suppose they feel we'll make up the loss in numbers or at least the Mexicans will be less likely to come here for jobs as the money they will be getting paid in won't be worth shit. They'll soon be paddling for Europe.

 

As a result foriegn investers are pulling out they have zero faith in our system...the once strongest economic system around. If you're in Oil, then you'll recall the OPEC meeting last fall and how they are calling for oil to be paid for in non-US Dollars. That's it's...we're victims now. Victims of our own demise. If we keep it up, it won't be long before Gold follows suite. Say goodbye to the Petrocurrency market we've had for so many years.

 

Korea, China, Russia and others are selling off our bonds and threatening to sell off more. That' directly weakens our dollar and thus causes us to pay more dollars for everything, including said oil. Trading of the USD is in the toilet compared to what it used to be because of our

 

Winners play with winners and what's happening today is the winners in foriegn countries no longer see our USD as a viable investment because of what we here have done. We are no longer seen as the winners we once were and they don't want to play (invest) with us. I agree with last years statement by Alan Greenspan that the euro could replace the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. We're so fucking dumb I'm sick to keep thinking about it.

 

We are a nation that has massive uncontrollable spending of borrowed money. No different that you or me if we maxed out our credit cards. The value of our money (or our net worth) would be shit.

 

So if you still think what we are doing here doesn't inflict causality to the value of the USD on a world market I am the one who can't help you.

 

ok asshole.. I am sucessfully self employed (well a contractor) and I work in the world markets and oil (quit my bum DFAS job).

 

Never anywhere did I say that the value of the USD is not affecting us. The value of the USD affects EVERYTHING we use on a world market scale, oil, gold, grain, etc. What i said is that what we do HERE has no causality link to the value of the USD on a world market. It is traded like a stock. The value can change on ANYTHING/ But if you have an understanding of fiat money, you will know that $1 USD will ALWAYS be $1 USD here in the United States. The traders on the world market are changing the value fo the USD worldwide. If you don't understand that, I can't help you.

[Science Abuse]

Never anywhere did I say that the value of the USD is not affecting us. The value of the USD affects EVERYTHING we use on a world market scale, oil, gold, grain, etc. What i said is that what we do HERE has no causality link to the value of the USD on a world market. It is traded like a stock. The value can change on ANYTHING/ But if you have an understanding of fiat money, you will know that $1 USD will ALWAYS be $1 USD here in the United States. The traders on the world market are changing the value fo the USD worldwide. If you don't understand that, I can't help you.

That is a true and misleading statment. Of course 1 USD will alsways = 1USD. The amount of work the USD will do is constantly slipping. The world is flat, we can't escape the effects of what our dollar is doing out there.

 

Bushes actions are the actions of any politician in his postion: No one wants to be another Hoover. Creating destructive policies and "simulus" packages are their way of passing the buck on to the next generation. "I don't want my name in the history books next to The Second Depression". Subsequently, they are making the end result (depression) worse and more difficult to recover from. We may be putting it off, but the end result may be something that we cannot recover from and remain The United States of America.

[LJ]

I'm sorry you think I'm being an asshole. Not sure why I suppose I just don't see any correlation to your respones to my post about the GDP and recession. However, regarding your further comments:

 

What we do here in this country absolutely has an affect on the USD in the world market. We are suffering most from a huge federal budget deficit - annual government spending that is higher than tax revenues...yet giving away tax revenues in the form of a Stimulus package is Bushes way of solving the problem. It's simply his way of helping the republicans in the election and avoiding a public out-cry of a recession under his last few months of office.

 

We as a country buy more shit from other countries than we sell and what we're buying we are buying on credit because we have no money. The trade and budget deficits have doubled since 9/11 thanks to Bush and his way of running things....and that has impact on the value of the dollar in the market.

 

Job numbers are up, but payroll is down. We farm out everything and eliminate high paying jobs to bring in low paying ones. But I suppose they feel we'll make up the loss in numbers or at least the Mexicans will be less likely to come here for jobs as the money they will be getting paid in won't be worth shit. They'll soon be paddling for Europe.

 

As a result foriegn investers are pulling out they have zero faith in our system...the once strongest economic system around. If you're in Oil, then you'll recall the OPEC meeting last fall and how they are calling for oil to be paid for in non-US Dollars. That's it's...we're victims now. Victims of our own demise. If we keep it up, it won't be long before Gold follows suite. Say goodbye to the Petrocurrency market we've had for so many years.

 

Korea, China, Russia and others are selling off our bonds and threatening to sell off more. That' directly weakens our dollar and thus causes us to pay more dollars for everything, including said oil. Trading of the USD is in the toilet compared to what it used to be because of our

 

Winners play with winners and what's happening today is the winners in foriegn countries no longer see our USD as a viable investment because of what we here have done. We are no longer seen as the winners we once were and they don't want to play (invest) with us. I agree with last years statement by Alan Greenspan that the euro could replace the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. We're so fucking dumb I'm sick to keep thinking about it.

 

We are a nation that has massive uncontrollable spending of borrowed money. No different that you or me if we maxed out our credit cards. The value of our money (or our net worth) would be shit.

 

So if you still think what we are doing here doesn't inflict causality to the value of the USD on a world market I am the one who can't help you.

 

You do not understand the difference between correlation and causality so I will no long be continuing this discussion.

 

That IS what is happening to the dollar, but you are using causality wrong, which is causing you to not understand what I am saying.

[LJ]

That is a true and misleading statment. Of course 1 USD will alsways = 1USD. The amount of work the USD will do is constantly slipping. The world is flat, we can't escape the effects of what our dollar is doing out there.

 

Bushes actions are the actions of any politician in his postion: No one wants to be another Hoover. Creating destructive policies and "simulus" packages are their way of passing the buck on to the next generation. "I don't want my name in the history books next to The Second Depression". Subsequently, they are making the end result (depression) worse and more difficult to recover from. We may be putting it off, but the end result may be something that we cannot recover from and remain The United States of America.

 

 

I don't discuss politics, I discuss economics.

[Science Abuse]

I don't discuss politics, I discuss economics.

You can't discuss one without the other.

It seems you're just harping on semantics now.... I guess that means you've conceded defeat?

[LJ]

You can't discuss one without the other.

It seems you're just harping on semantics now.... I guess that means you've conceded defeat?

 

I believe the president has less of an effect on the economy than most people believe. When people start bringing the President into it, I usually stop. I know what I am talking about, I work in the markets and the economy 100% directly affects my pay (moreso than the average worker) and I have a degree in Economics. I refuse to discuss issues with someone who doesn't know the difference between "correlation" and "causality" because those are 2 MAJOR statistical measures in economics. Plus I just really don't like getting into politics because EVERYONE in the gov't is involved in one way and cannot just be blamed on 1 office.

 

Plus gov't factors merely have a "push" or "shove" effect on the economy. A mere correlation. If spending goes up this fall after all these checks go out, it may or may not be tied to the stimulus... mere correlation.

[JuicedH22]

I tell you what...

 

Why dont all of you give me say... $300 a piece. I will then use all that money wisely in the appropriate areas of the market to stimulate the economy, raise GDP, and turn around the housing crisis.

 

You can message me or email me as to where and how to transfer the funds into my account.

[Science Abuse]

...$300 a piece.

How about I just give you "a peice", will that work?

[TTQ B4U]

well, I'm not sure where you were going with your last several posts anyway. seems you measure the economy solely on GDP and buy into the skewed unemployment stats that the trade rags report...like the fed do you strictly follow the core rate of inflation or do you look at a realistic view of inflation? ....all of which tell a pretty bleak story.

 

...and with your communication issue, none of us can continue the discussion so /of thread I suppose and the fact that we are way :offtopic:

 

I refuse to discuss issues with someone who doesn't know the difference between "correlation" and "causality" because those are 2 MAJOR statistical measures in economics.

[Conesmasher]

I love the arguing, but you all sound like a bunch of housewives screaming that you've got a "better double-oven".

 

I think we all can agree that things are not as good as they used to be.....it seems that most of us are pretty well educated on this fact....in addition most folks here seem to realize that economic growth and contraction is cyclical.

 

 

 

Now while we could bicker like housewives, let's talk about some real economic theories that I am begining to think are more like "proofs", as outlined in this thread. Most of us know the economic graph, where it shows this perfect out line of "expansion, peak, contraction, valley".....and I think that most of us were taught that we KNOW when we are expanding and when we are contracting(typically*wink*)....the uncertainty lies in knowing if we are hitting the top or at the bottom.

 

 

Politics/Government + Business NEVER equals a better, well informed, more effcient economy/consumer. It makes slugs who throw ripples in economic trends instead of letting the free market do it's job. It's just like the folks who want the gov't to do something about the gas prices.....STFU.......the best thing that gov't can do for the LONG TERM ECONOMIC STABILITY OF AN ECONOMY........is to STAY THE HELL OUT!!!!!!!!!!!

 

We are supposed to be a free nation........and aside from civil rights, fairness should never be discussed. Everyone has the right to get screwed, as they have the right to prosper. Welcome to America, don't let the door hit you on the way in or out.

[Tractor]

We are supposed to be a free nation........and aside from civil rights, fairness should never be discussed. Everyone has the right to get screwed, as they have the right to prosper. Welcome to America, don't let the door hit you on the way in or out.

 

 

That right there is the truth.

 

Evan