- 500 points and counting.

[thorne]

-500 points

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI

[nurkvinny]

Oil down to 89.90 and counting. Yay.

[HAOLE]

-500, and it only cost us 700 billion.

[Kevin R.]

-500, and it only cost us 700 billion.

 

We didn't spend a dime of that 700 billion yet. It is down because investors want to know how it is going to be allocated exactly as that has not even been made clear yet.

 

[Alex1647545498]

I hate our gov'

[Casper]

I hate our gov'

 

Agreed.

[twistedfocus1647545489]

If they screw things up so bad that I lose any more retirement money - I'm seriously going to cash out and move to the Virgin Islands. True story.

 

No that I think their economy is any better, just that if I'm going to be poor I'd rather be poor in the tropics.

[Scotty2Hotty]

Oil down to 89.90 and counting. Yay.

I want Exxon to get screwed

[Farkas]

I saw gas was almost under $3.00 at the pump!

[wagner]

buckle up this is just the start. all the firms i deal with are either dead or getting ready to start the bankrupcy fun.

[Science Abuse]

Bouncing. The day aint over until the markets close.

[LJ]

Bouncing. The day aint over until the markets close.

 

the day is over...

 

it closed at -315 and is settling around -360

[87GT]

It is going up already.

[Conesmasher]

Dollars to dognuts, market goes up tomorrow........

[mmrmnhrm]

Dollars to dognuts, market goes up tomorrow........

This is likely, but do not confuse a rally with a recovery. There's a LOT of pain yet to come. I'm being optimistic at 8000, realistic at 6000, and if we start having real bank runs and public defaults, 4000 within reach. Buffett called derivatives "Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction," and that's what we have going off right now.

 

If you've never talked with your grandparents about what was like in the Depression, now would be a good time. Ask about families and neighbors pooling and working together, scraping by, swapping clothes, turning lawns into gardens. If you've missed your chance, read and learn. Prepare. If you're in debt, get out. Student debt. Credit card debt. Auto loan debt. If you owe someone money, pay it back quickly. Read over your mortgage carefully. If there's any hint that your payments might rise, look into converting or refinancing. You do NOT want surprises.

[LJ]

This is likely, but do not confuse a rally with a recovery. There's a LOT of pain yet to come. I'm being optimistic at 8000, realistic at 6000, and if we start having real bank runs and public defaults, 4000 within reach. Buffett called derivatives "Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction," and that's what we have going off right now.

 

If you've never talked with your grandparents about what was like in the Depression, now would be a good time. Ask about families and neighbors pooling and working together, scraping by, swapping clothes, turning lawns into gardens. If you've missed your chance, read and learn. Prepare. If you're in debt, get out. Student debt. Credit card debt. Auto loan debt. If you owe someone money, pay it back quickly. Read over your mortgage carefully. If there's any hint that your payments might rise, look into converting or refinancing. You do NOT want surprises.

 

Let's worry about what to do with 1979 levels first

[Conesmasher]

This is likely, but do not confuse a rally with a recovery. There's a LOT of pain yet to come. I'm being optimistic at 8000, realistic at 6000, and if we start having real bank runs and public defaults, 4000 within reach. Buffett called derivatives "Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction," and that's what we have going off right now.

 

If you've never talked with your grandparents about what was like in the Depression, now would be a good time. Ask about families and neighbors pooling and working together, scraping by, swapping clothes, turning lawns into gardens. If you've missed your chance, read and learn. Prepare. If you're in debt, get out. Student debt. Credit card debt. Auto loan debt. If you owe someone money, pay it back quickly. Read over your mortgage carefully. If there's any hint that your payments might rise, look into converting or refinancing. You do NOT want surprises.

 

I was being facicious in regards to the short term market swings.

 

I have talked to my grandparents about the Great Depression. My great grandfather had a rather large farm. And when the problems hit, he lost his it. Forced to move to the city....depressed by the turmoil, blew his head off.

 

I'm good. I do worry about others too. My buddies with multiple credit cards, adjustable rate mortgages, and cars that they are backwards on.

 

I don't know about bank runs, but I've never experience anything like that in my life. I guess......we'll see.

[Science Abuse]

At least we're not lonely! Everyone took a shit today. From what you hear, you'd expect Paternoster Square to be littered with dead.

[mmrmnhrm]

Let's worry about what to do with 1979 levels first

On a pure numbers basis, I do not expect to see sub-1000, nor do I expect that we'll return to 2000 (1987). I believe there are enough dollars sloshing around in 401k funds to form an absolute floor somewhere around 3000-3500. However, you also need to account for inflation. A 2008 dollar ($1.00) is worth much less than 1929 ($12.49), and about a third of 1979 ($2.94).

[LJ]

On a pure numbers basis, I do not expect to see sub-1000, nor do I expect that we'll return to 2000 (1987). I believe there are enough dollars sloshing around in 401k funds to form an absolute floor somewhere around 3000-3500. However, you also need to account for inflation. A 2008 dollar ($1.00) is worth much less than 1929 ($12.49), and about a third of 1979 ($2.94).

 

I mean 1979 level of Economic activity.

 

On the DJIA... gramps says don't look for below 7500... he has been trading for ohhh.... 45-50 years.

 

Another person I talk to, PhD from London School of Economics and has been a fund manager for years says that the major major support level is 8500 as P/E will be bottoming out for many Dow stocks at about that level. People are going to start buying up stocks when they go "hey... buying GE at only 5 times earnings? Get serious... DuPont at 6 times earnings? you lie....

[Conesmasher]

George Bush has helped me get some of the cheapest stock I'll ever be able to buy. Thank goodness for him!!

[mmrmnhrm]

I mean 1979 level of Economic activity.

 

On the DJIA... gramps says don't look for below 7500... he has been trading for ohhh.... 45-50 years.

The rules have changed, but I also would prefer us not to drop below the 8000 I mentioned earlier

Another person I talk to, PhD from London School of Economics and has been a fund manager for years says that the major major support level is 8500 as P/E will be bottoming out for many Dow stocks at about that level. People are going to start buying up stocks when they go "hey... buying GE at only 5 times earnings? Get serious... DuPont at 6 times earnings? you lie....

I'm curious... looking over the chart, I do not see a resistance/support structure at 8500. I do see it at 10000 (tomorrow's action will be important), then 9500, 9000, 8000, and 7500. Curiously, there does not appear to be a "catch your breath" at 8500, though this is likely because the upwards tick was the leading edge of the dot-com bubble, while the downwards was part of a pennant at 8300ish that broke to the upside.

 

Though to be perfectly honest, I don't put a whole lot of faith in charting. They're good for identifying trends, but they don't tell you much about absolutes.

[LJ]

The rules have changed, but I also would prefer us not to drop below the 8000 I mentioned earlier

 

I'm curious... looking over the chart, I do not see a resistance/support structure at 8500. I do see it at 10000 (tomorrow's action will be important), then 9500, 9000, 8000, and 7500. Curiously, there does not appear to be a "catch your breath" at 8500, though this is likely because the upwards tick was the leading edge of the dot-com bubble, while the downwards was part of a pennant at 8300ish that broke to the upside.

 

Though to be perfectly honest, I don't put a whole lot of faith in charting. They're good for identifying trends, but they don't tell you much about absolutes.

 

Yeah, I asked him where it was on the chart and he said it was an actual value support level. He said that the P/E of many Dow stocks will be nearing 5 at that point and fundamentally we should see very very strong support to the upside. It was quite interesting I thought.

[LJ]

Oh, and I am calling this to be like 1979 because we are seeing the same credit problems.... but different circumstances..

 

in 1979, credit was 19% interest and no one could afford to borrow. Now credit just isn't out there and there is no one to loan you the money. We will see the same type of ecnomic activity.

[mmrmnhrm]

Yeah, I asked him where it was on the chart and he said it was an actual value support level. He said that the P/E of many Dow stocks will be nearing 5 at that point and fundamentally we should see very very strong support to the upside. It was quite interesting I thought.

Certainly a possibility, but one which assumes that earnings will remain somewhat constant. Companies in the "consumer non-durable" category (food and OTC drug companies like Kraft and Johnson&Johnson) should be able to maintain or even improve their earnings. Others (Citigroup, JPMorgan, General Motors) not so much. As earnings go down, the P/E ratio goes up, meaning further price reductions are required to hit that magical 5.

Oh, and I am calling this to be like 1979 because we are seeing the same credit problems.... but different circumstances..

 

in 1979, credit was 19% interest and no one could afford to borrow. Now credit just isn't out there and there is no one to loan you the money. We will see the same type of ecnomic activity.

Actually, I'd be willing to bet many folks not on some sort of promotional rate are in the 20-30% interest range, even those with flawless payment records and 750+ FICO scores. I'm one of 'em (I even called and asked why maybe two years ago... the CSR's response? "We've never made a penny off you."). So you start with people deep in debt who can't afford to borrow more and banks unwilling to lend to all but the most worthy, but in many cases, those who are worthy don't care to borrow anyways. So it's really from three directions that the so-called "velocity of money" (what Paulson and Bernanke euphemistically call "liquidity") is being attacked, not just the two you mentioned.