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Wx: 2010/2011 Winter Forecasts


jeffro

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Just about every storm this season has tracked further south than the long range models have shown.

 

Although i agree with this statement, they ALL say its going north. gfs has it even futher north west now. one thing keeping hope alive, plus the fact that the models dont account for the current snowpack keeping surface temps down.

 

 

so gay.

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ICE LOL

 

http://www.columbusht.com/ice.jpg

 

850 MB temps shifted south on the nam. keep going baby!

 

im moving home for the next few days if this ice doesnt veer off. they got a wood burning stove with plenty of wood(thats all they use to heat the house). 10 degrees on thurs and friday will be cooooold.

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Winter storm watch for our area ladies and gents.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/iln/

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH

349 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

 

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

 

.A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY

LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WINTRY

PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE

POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS.

 

INZ058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ091>093-OHZ045-046-053>056-060>065-

070>072-077-078-310615-

/O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110201T1800Z/

FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-

BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-UNION OH-DELAWARE-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-

LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-

BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE...

VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...BURLINGTON...

INDEPENDENCE...ALEXANDRIA...MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...SPRINGFIELD...

LONDON...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...

WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...

LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CINCINNATI...MILFORD

349 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

 

PERIODS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

TUESDAY MORNING. THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY TAKE

THE FORM OF SNOW AND SLEET...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION

IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER

AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

 

SOME AREAS MAY SEE UP TO A QUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. TOTAL

SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND AN INCH OR

LESS.

 

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE

FOR A HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER EVENT IN OR CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA.

 

keep in mind were on the northers fringe of the above watch, and on the south side of this watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

314 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

 

...WINTER STORM TO HIT THE REGION...

 

.A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48

HOURS. A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN

OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND SPREAD A WINTRY MIX

OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO

MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

 

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-310415-

/O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0001.110201T0300Z-110203T0000Z/

LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-

CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-MARION-MORROW-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN...PORT CLINTON...

FREMONT...SANDUSKY...FINDLAY...TIFFIN...NORWALK...

UPPER SANDUSKY...CAREY...BUCYRUS...MANSFIELD...MARION...

MOUNT GILEAD

314 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY EVENING.

 

SNOW WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING ALONG A

WARM FRONT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY

NIGHT WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF SNOW.

 

THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FOR A PERIOD OF TIME

TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST SURGE OF SNOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA...THE

SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AN

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

 

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SNOW WILL BECOME MIXED WITH

SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTH

AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH TO AFFECT THE REST OF THE AREA

TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

THE SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN COMBINATION IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN IT WILL THEN CHANGE BACK TO

ALL SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END WEDNESDAY EVENING FROM WEST

TO EAST AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW AND OR SIGNIFICANT ICE

ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY

TUNED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER

SOURCE FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS

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gonna take a shot here. im gonna go out on a limb and say that the rain stays to our south, and get get a sloppy mix of freezing rain, and mostly sleet/snow, with a total accum of about 5-6" when all is said and done. surface temps are just too cold.
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So what is the deal with this? People in my office are freaking out citing this article

 

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/01/31/winter.storm/index.html?hpt=T2

 

They are already calling off work and stoping work trips.

 

I just want to plan ahead if class will be a no go or not.

 

i dont fucking know man, i just dont know. were soo close to the line that it could go either way.

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i dont fucking know man, i just dont know. were soo close to the line that it could go either way.

 

Damn it Jeffro "Olli" Williams I need to know what the Black-u-Weather forcast is! Stormteam 4 is all naked rubbin each other so they are wothless!

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Damn it Jeffro "Olli" Williams I need to know what the Black-u-Weather forcast is! Stormteam 4 is all naked rubbin each other so they are wothless!

 

NAM is showing light snow, then heavy rain, then a mix, then back to snow. Thats my story and im stickin to it.

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NAM is showing light snow, then heavy rain, then a mix, then back to snow. Thats my story and im stickin to it.

 

so some ice, some snow, then everything melting off, then all the moisture freezing?

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i just cant see this happening:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=120170

 

hr 42 NAM 2M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110131/12/nam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip.gif

hr 42 NAM 850M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110131/12/nam_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

hr 48 NAM 2M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110131/12/nam_namer_048_10m_wnd_precip.gif

hr 48 NAM 850M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110131/12/nam_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

hr 54 NAM 2M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110131/12/nam_namer_054_10m_wnd_precip.gif

hr 54 NAM 850M

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110131/12/nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

48 hr precip for the storm. seems a little bit south compared to yesterday, which could be why the first image has us getting that much snow.:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110131/12/nam_namer_060_precip_ptot.gif

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