GSXRAntwon Posted January 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 id think like 8 or 9 to one. either way, youll see some plowable snow. especially on the north end of the city. Nice, we shall see. Thanks weatherman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 clear your inbox. btw http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snowfcst/snow.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Cleared. People on other sites are saying 1-2" today and 1-3" tomorrow? Any truth to this in the models? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrs.cos Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 I'm on my phone so I don't feel like searching the forums right now, but what other weather forums do you guys read? I'd love to learn more. I <3 weather maps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Cleared. People on other sites are saying 1-2" today and 1-3" tomorrow? Any truth to this in the models? about as safe as it can get. once again, amounts higher north of the city tomorrow. My thought with the mixing is that theres going to be a 2" layer of snow on the ground, which will raise the temps of the air, much like ice cubes in a glass of water. Models generally dont understand this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 19, 2012 Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 -sn here in Delaware. tomorrow nights system has trended in our favor! GFS; take it with a grain of salt. about 60 miles further south than 2 days ago http://img857.imageshack.us/img857/319/usaasnowipersfc048.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 Looking better Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 19, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2012 got about a half inch here so far...looks like an early morning salt run will be in order Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam1647545489 Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Jeff, if I am reading that model right, it says possible 3 inches of snow tomorrow. Why are the weather idiots on tv saying just an inch or so with mixing rain. Why are they not seeing the same models as you are showing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Jeff, if I am reading that model right, it says possible 3 inches of snow tomorrow. Why are the weather idiots on tv saying just an inch or so with mixing rain. Why are they not seeing the same models as you are showing? probably because they know more than i. im just an amatuer. plus, if they overforecast it makes them looks worse than under forecasting. I just got home from class, lemme take a look at the latest models Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 heres why: http://i.imgur.com/2yleF.gif http://i.imgur.com/9o6eA.gif http://i.imgur.com/Sx92s.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Can you explain? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 basically it seems the forecasters are favoring the NAM model. This is a NAM map. The blue line represents the freezing line at 10,000 feet. It shows the 10k freezing line being up near the OH/MI border. Meaning, its raining at 10k feet here in central ohio since its warmer than 32. http://i.imgur.com/RFCnG.gif Now, below is a temperature map for the same hour at the surface, as in the ground. It shows the freezing temp being the around i70 line. So in that space where the surface temp is less than 32, but the upper atmosphere temp is above freezing, it rains then freezes as it hits the ground. http://i.imgur.com/XvGkL.gif basically between i70 and i80 there should be an ice accumulation according to the NAM Now, The GFS is a different story. It shows the 10k freezing line at 70. http://i.imgur.com/XC3r1.gif and the surface freeze line from dayton to WV/PA line. So according to the GFS, we would stay all snow, maybe a very brief period of sleet. http://i.imgur.com/AC9TI.gif The ECMWF (euro) never shows the 10k (or 850mb) temp rising north of 70; http://i.imgur.com/pMTA9.gif http://i.imgur.com/4chzM.gif i had to post 2 images because it only goes in 24 hour increments. I dont understand why their hugging the NAM, but whatever. the 6z nam is running now, so we;ll see what it says Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 the GGEM also stays all snow north of 70\ http://i.imgur.com/mtpjh.gif AND THE UKIE, for what its worth: http://i.imgur.com/LEoce.gif i need a beer after that explanation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Awesome, appreciate the effort you put into that for the semi-newbs. Keep us updated as usual buddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 might want to refresh and reread, i edited like 6 times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yea I saw it after I wrote it lol. Probability of Freezing rain/Ice: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwprobs/zr_probabilities.php Doesnt look like much rain/ice probability Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yea I saw it after I wrote it lol. Probability of Freezing rain/Ice: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwprobs/zr_probabilities.php Doesnt look like much rain/ice probability Anything could happen at this point. the NWS has waldo (just north of delaware city) getting 3-5 tomorrow night. thats only 25 miles from the top of the belt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 :snowdance: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Things are in our favor. point and click for Delaware city has them down for 2-4 tonight. Thats a combo of the GFS and the NAM. If the GFS were to verify, hold onto your hats. That thick yellow line is the 32* surface temp line %5Bimg%5Dhttp%3A//i371.photobucket.com/albums/oo160/jeffro1265/Weather/Untitled.jpg[/img] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Aw shibby Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
im faster Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Did you guys get anything up there? around 70/75 looked like 1in ish when i was up there last night.. here in dayton we got a dusting. I want snow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffro Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 got around an inch. MAYBE inch and a quarter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSXRAntwon Posted January 20, 2012 Author Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Freeze line looking good so far http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c381/hlfvipr/8a2faa61.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LJ Posted January 20, 2012 Report Share Posted January 20, 2012 Did you guys get anything up there? around 70/75 looked like 1in ish when i was up there last night.. here in dayton we got a dusting. I want snow! East of Columbus we had ice under about 1in of snow. I'll take 6in of snow if that means 0 ice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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