JuicedH22 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Everyone who answered is a part of Johnny boy's social experiment. I refuse to be experimented on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Jones Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Everyone who answered is a part of Johnny boy's social experiment. I refuse to be experimented on. By even posting that, you fall into another category... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flyin Miata Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 The wikipedia article on this is super interesting. My answer before reading the explanation would've been that it doesn't matter. Makes sense now after understanding the statistics behind it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Otis Nice Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Have fun with this: http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm Just did a quick 3000 runs with the option to change the choice. 65% car, 35% goat. Sorry Mitch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furloaf Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 I think of it as being able to pick 2 doors instead of one when asked to switch. With your first pick you have 1/3 chance of having the car. The other two doors have 2/3 chance of the car. Revealing that one of the other two doors does not have the car doesn't change the chance that those two together had 2/3 chance of the car, so now the unopened door you didn't pick is 2/3 chance by itself - since the host will always open a door containing the goat. The revealed door is not picked at random so that is why it can "modify" the chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mowgli1647545497 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is the goat on tour with Taylor Swift? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sol740 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Probability aside, it would suck ass to switch, knowing the math, and lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mensan Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 It wouldn't suck that bad, it's only a 2:1 chance. You HAVE to go with the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImUrOBGYN Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Before I read anything else but the OP's post... STAY with my original door. It's statistically a safer bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mensan Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Before I read anything else but the OP's post... STAY with my original door. It's statistically a safer bet. You literally couldn't be more wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ImUrOBGYN Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Was already planning on changing it. Wrote that wrong. Should've thought about it more, first. I have to say, I coulda sworn I had seen something on this long ago. Ah well, memory ain't what it used to be. haha Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pomade Posted February 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 What would you do op? I would always switch doors. This is my reasoning. If you don't switch doors, then you have a 50% chance of getting the car. (Actually, it's only 1/3, but when the other goat is revealed then I know I at least have a 50-50 shot that my door hides the car.) However, if you switch doors, then you have a 67% percent chance of getting the car. If you switch doors, there are only three outcomes possible, and 2 of the 3 result in you getting the car. 1: you picked a goat. Goat revealed. You switch and get the car. 2: you picked the other goat. Goat revealed. You switch and get the car. 3: you (were unlucky enough to have) picked the car. Goat revealed. You switch and get the goat. At the get-go, what are you more likely to pick - a goat or a car? Well, your odds are 2/3 for a goat and only 1/3 for a car. By switching your pick after a goat is revealed, you get to flip those odds in your favor: 2/3 of the time you'll get the car and only 1/3 will you switch and get a goat. This is what I tried to explain to my friend, who, by all accounts, is a highly intelligent, very accomplished individual. (He has a doctorate in psychology and a law degree as well.) However, he was having none of it, and argued vehemently that there was no statistical advantage to switching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mensan Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 This is what I tried to explain to my friend, who, by all accounts, is a highly intelligent, very accomplished individual. (He has a doctorate in psychology and a law degree as well.) However, he was having none of it, and argued vehemently that there was no statistical advantage to switching. There are a couple of reasons for arguing. The first, for me, is to bring my point of view to someone else so they can see they're wrong. If this is not possible, I argue loudly so other people can see they're ignorant and I am smarter. If neither of these things will happen I stop arguing, and just tell people they're right, and they are happy in ignorance. Sometimes I am the other person in this scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87GT Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 There are a couple of reasons for arguing. The first, for me, is to bring my point of view to someone else so they can see they're wrong. If this is not possible, I argue loudly so other people can see they're ignorant and I am smarter. http://memegenerator.net/instance/25717989 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furloaf Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 It relies on the revealed door not being randomly chosen. If it was randomly chosen then there wouldn't be any advantage to switching from the original choice. The host deliberately picks to reveal a losing door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pomade Posted February 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 There are a couple of reasons for arguing. The first, for me, is to bring my point of view to someone else so they can see they're wrong. If this is not possible, I argue loudly so other people can see they're ignorant and I am smarter. If neither of these things will happen I stop arguing, and just tell people they're right, and they are happy in ignorance. Sometimes I am the other person in this scenario. You're brilliant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iwishiwascool Posted February 27, 2013 Report Share Posted February 27, 2013 C'mon guys, you are better at the Internet than this. These guys explain complex topics well: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuicedH22 Posted February 27, 2013 Report Share Posted February 27, 2013 By even posting that, you fall into another category... :no: ...a highly intelligent... individual. (He has a doctorate in psychology...) Isn't that an oxymoron? There are a couple of reasons for arguing. The first, for me, is to bring my point of view to someone else so they can see they're wrong. If this is not possible, I argue loudly so other people can see they're ignorant and I am smarter. If neither of these things will happen I stop arguing, and just tell people they're right, and they are happy in ignorance. Sometimes I am the other person in this scenario. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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