Rumors of War...

[ReconRat]

I will not quote anything. Rumor has it that the US will be sending five US Navy carrier battle groups to the shores of Iran, later this year. Amphibious assault forces included. I think the USA hasn't sent out a battle group that size since World War II. We'll see what happens. Many times just the threat of doing so is enough to defuse a situation that requires the action. Although apparently nobody has made clear to the general public what the situation is that requires it.

I'm guessing that this will be about the time frame that an attack from Hezbollah in Lebanon is expected. And perhaps something from Syria. I also suspect that about the same time, North Korean will decide to mix it up in moderate combat with South Korea, just to distract from events.

That North Korea will do something, is currently expected. Guess-timates are that limited ground, air, and sea warfare between North Korea and South Korea will take place. This isn't actually a new war, it's an old war. The Korean War never ended, it was stopped in an armistice. Unfortunately, North Korea unilaterally withdrew from the armistice on May 25, 2009. So, currently at war again, we just missed the start.

Also if you missed it, this afternoon North Korea severed all ties with South Korea. This was after South Korea decided to quit sending anything to North Korea. Stuff like food, money, and goods.

And always a potential, the US is sending National Guard to our Mexican borders. Mexico has troops on their side of the border trying hard to control the border as well. If this sounds innocent enough, remember that Mexico has fought in Mexico; 4 wars/skirmishes with the USA, 2 with France, one with Spain, and 6 or 7 internal secessions, revolutions, or civil wars. Continuous police actions against guerrillas and armed bandits not counted.

Any wonder why the world markets are shook up?

Any good news? Well, the Euro has fallen to $1.22 USD, which is nice, so maybe a vacation to Europe is a good idea. You know, Europe, that place where more wars have been fought nearly continuously since time began, than any other place in the world.

[Disclaimer]

I was waiting for someone on here to acknowledge the NKorea, SKorea events of recent. I have a bad feeling about that.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100525/ap_on_re_as/as_skorea_ship_sinks

The US has also committed to doing some military exercises with SKorea attempting to intimidate the Kim Jong.

Spreading thin and costing us a pretty penny to fight this ideological wars...

[kawi kid]

tom you scare me cuz i can see it happening all before our eyes and everyone is blind to it.

[gen3flygirl]

[jagr]

Cool. Looks like a good time to re-up.

Recon. You ready to break out the M-1 Garand.

[mahdey]

yawn, more fear for the public. Nothings going to happen, go back inside people.

[kawi kid]

Cool. Looks like a good time to re-up.

Recon. You ready to break out the M-1 Garand.

ouch

[TopGun]

I have been waiting for this to come around for a long time. While I was working overseas. Iran tried to lure a few mk 5 seal boats into a confrontation by setting up wolf packs along the international waters. The boats went around the straights on one side was two boats on the other end were 5 boghammers waiting if out boats took action.

As for N Korea, that has been boiling for a long time, Problem there is The U.N will have no choice but to get involved as it was a U.N affair last time around. Either way this is gonna get shitty real fast!

[kawi kid]

u.n. is worthless.......... they proved that along time ago

[ReconRat]

I was waiting for someone on here to acknowledge the NKorea, SKorea events of recent. I have a bad feeling about that.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100525/ap_on_re_as/as_skorea_ship_sinks

The US has also committed to doing some military exercises with SKorea attempting to intimidate the Kim Jong.

Spreading thin and costing us a pretty penny to fight this ideological wars...

The problem in Korea. The initial onset of combat, would involve artillery fired from North Korea at Seoul, the Capital of South Korea, which is way too close to North Korea. It would be leveled. Again. The loss of life for civilians would be horrific. This isn't old style war, it would only take about two hours to complete the destruction of Seoul. Although from what I've seen, Seoul is actually out of range of almost all of the artillery. It would have to be moved forward to complete the task. (Or tunnels under the border that we don't know about would function for that purpose.)

I'd say 9 times out of 10, no matter how bad it looks, it will blow over, and no one will fight. Having said that, history shows that messing with an opponent for whatever gain, will eventually provoke a reaction.

It's war, one wins, and one loses. The winner is smarter (or lucky), and won't fight unless it's near impossible to lose. And even then, something must be gained. Seldom do people fight wars for nothing. Although what may be something to one side, is nothing to the other.

[ReconRat]

As for N Korea, that has been boiling for a long time, Problem there is The U.N will have no choice but to get involved as it was a U.N affair last time around. Either way this is gonna get shitty real fast!

Correct. It was and still is a UN police action, and the USA doesn't make the decisions. Which makes it a weak distraction to whatever might happen somewhere else. It will appear to be much more.

War often depends upon sustainability. how long can an opponent actually fight. The world worried about China for a long time, but reality is that they don't have enough fuel for fighting more than a week or two. Then they have to stop. Their mistake, they are working on correcting that.

edit: Unfortunately, the USA has demonstrated how to win a war in two weeks. The two battles in Iraq seriously shocked the militarys of the world. They had no idea that the blitzkrieg technique of World War II was still valid. Yes, yes it is. By using overwhelming technology.

[Fonzie]

This.....

The group, citing unidentified sources in North Korea, said the order was broadcast last Thursday on speakers installed in each house and at major public sites throughout the country.

.... Reminds me of what Hitler did in the 30's after his rise to power. The nazi's made sure every home had a government issued radio, to be able to listen to their propaganda

[Bad324]

so is this going to lead to World War III?

[DangBruhY]

Yeah... I worry about this as well.

[Cheech]

North Korea is doing what North Korea has done almost every year for at least the last 10 years, probably before that: start some shit to garner international attention so they can be "diplomatically talked down from the brink" with more free aid, both financial and humanitarian. What I find incredibly amusing is that everyone's mind just resets after a few months when nothing happens until the next time that they start shit, then no one knows what's going on.

The problem with this game is that you have to keep raising the ante of provocation otherwise your bark doesn't seem that menacing anymore. Last time around it was the nuclear test/missile tests, this time they one-upped it by attacking a warship. KJI got the front page headlines he wanted, if the UN is involved he's going to get the aid he wants (they don't know how to do anything else but) and everyone is going to sit back down again in about a month/2 months.

As for the NK offensive threat, yeah Seoul is pretty much screwed. The only issue is that the arti pieces that NK currently has pointed to Seoul are pretty old, and I would imagine they'd all have to be portable otherwise they'd be already targeted by US/SK batteries/airstrikes which would make quick work of them, but not before they were able to launch a volley or 5 and do some serious damage.

As for the Persians, would someone please scissor Xerxes so they can calm the fuck down?

[Cheech]

so is this going to lead to World War III?

No. NK basically has one ally: China. The diplomatic links are tenuous at best, China allows NK to do whatever as long as it doesn't pose a threat to their interests. SK is a decent sized trading partner with China, so if tensions were to escalate I'd look for Wen Jiabao to put some pressure on KJI to sit down.

[Bad324]

No. NK basically has one ally: China. The diplomatic links are tenuous at best, China allows NK to do whatever as long as it doesn't pose a threat to their interests. SK is a decent sized trading partner with China, so if tensions were to escalate I'd look for Wen Jiabao to put some pressure on KJI to sit down.

So basically NK is trying to flex its muscles but if anything were to get started they'd get owned? I get it now

I just wanted to know if I should use a possible WWIII as reason to expedite a new bike purchase

[ReconRat]

Yes, North Korea would get owned. Especially if they managed to anger the USA.

Estimates of North Korea's ability to survive a USA response, are at worst, 15 minutes, and it would be over. At best, two and a half days, and all the NK troops would surrender. (Ran out of food and water, most likely.)

That technology thing. Firing an ancient artillery weapon at someone high tech, would get one round right back at you, almost right down your barrel. And the high tech artillery that fired it, would be out of range of attack.

[ReconRat]

So China stands on the edge, deciding which way to fall. They want to see the data and evidence for themselves, from the recovered ship that sank, before deciding what to do. This is quite different than the normal response from China. Which is good. It might also be why North Korea suddenly decided to build a wall and barrier and tank traps across the North border between China and North Korea. The story continues...

Opinion: China is a good trading partner with both Koreas, and would only stand to win from a reunited Korea. North Korea's population wouldn't complain. Not with all the changes for the better that would happen. So the best thing that could happen? China invades North Korea and occupys it till things settle down and South Korea can take it over (voting/elections). Everyone's happy, USA helps out a bit with tactical strikes, China and USA get to be allies, which causes the world to go into shock again, and the new Korea probably becomes the 3rd or 4th greatest military power, allied with both the USA and China. And the USA and the UN wouldn't have to have troops there anymore. Win-Win.

[Lost]

I found this link to a study that doesn't paint such a rosy picture. I have always believed that the North Koreans will give us more war than I think the US is prepared for.......

They predict that once war commenced the US military presence on the ground would be gone in three hours.

http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm

good article take a read.

[ReconRat]

I found this link to a study that doesn't paint such a rosy picture. I have always believed that the North Koreans will give us more war than I think the US is prepared for.......

They predict that once war commenced the US military presence on the ground would be gone in three hours.

http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm

good article take a read.

Yup, Rense is always fun to read. He comes up with the weirdest stuff. He does tend to twist information to suit. It wasn't a bad read till he tried to compare the T-62 main battle tank to M1A1 Abrahms. He neglected to mention that 155mm main gun is an antique. The T-62 has to stop to fire, M1A1 can shoot while moving at top speed. 155mm shell will not hurt an M1A1 no matter how many times it tries. 120mm HESH or HEAT round will go clean through a T-62 and kill the tank behind it. etc, etc. Rense really doesn't have a clue. He's probably wrong on 80%-90% of what he discussed. Besides, the M1A2 is current, not the M1A1.

He forgot to mention:

1. North Korea has suffered energy shortages for many years, and any damage to that minimal capability to produce power would be serious. Most power plants would be destroyed or rendered out of action quickly.

2. Based on historical precedence in the Iraqi conflict, all communications and airbases would be destroyed first. Surface to air weapons and missiles rely on communications with radar units. Aircraft do also in typical North Korean order of battle. Most of these would be destroyed on the ground without resistance.

3. North Korea relies on importing food, and without the imports cannot sustain the civilian population. Military food sources are stockpiled. Which are targets. Food actually burns pretty well.

4. North Korea has no satellite intelligence capability. Information would be poor or out of date.

5. North Korea has no satellite communications, so would be out of communications if they left their bases. (All communications jammed except for direct point to point through satellites or fiber optics.)

6. Based on historical precedence in the Iraqi conflict, any military equipment that moved would be spotted and destroyed by weapons from aircraft or artillery that are out of range from counter attack.

7. North Korean ground and air assets typically don't do well at night or in poor weather. A serious disadvantage when facing an opponent that does.

8. Open terrain is easy to maneuver in, but rugged terrain is terrible for armor to try to attack through. Very easy to stop and destroy, if the aircraft or artillery are available to do so.

9. Nuclear is not an option, either because North Korea's abilities are weak, or because defensive laser and ballistic interceptors are available (including SM-3 Ship to Air right off shore on USN missile cruisers), or simply that a single USN submarine is independently capable of destroying the entire country of North Korea all by itself.

10. North Korea's air, land and sea equipment are far from modern, and consists of "modernized" elements of much older designs. All of which do not fair well in modern battle. So poorly from evidence, that most are a liability rather than an advantage.

[Fonzie]

I found this link to a study that doesn't paint such a rosy picture. I have always believed that the North Koreans will give us more war than I think the US is prepared for.......

They predict that once war commenced the US military presence on the ground would be gone in three hours.

http://www.rense.com/general37/nkorr.htm

good article take a read.

Interesting.... According to that paper, doesn't sound like we stand a chance

Curious to see what Tom's input on all that is

**NM.... He posted while I was reading/typing

[AOW]

All I can say on this matter is... I was contacted last week regarding performing site surveys and conversions for potential USA military establishments as well as recommissioning of now closed military sites.

[ReconRat]

All I can say on this matter is... I was contacted last week regarding performing site surveys and conversions for potential USA military establishments as well as recommissioning of now closed military sites.

interesting... reactivating old military and production sites owned by military is common. They come and go. Technology changes force most of it to happen, when it wasn't expected. I'm still waiting for the old plant out at the Columbus airport to open back up and produce little robot aircraft by the 10s of thousands. It's only a matter of time and history repeating itself. If it does, I will have a new job. One that pays probably two or three times what I make now.

[CBRunninfast]

Cool. Looks like a good time to re-up.

Recon. You ready to break out the M-1 Garand.

Just make sure your killstreaks are set appropriately. I would go with predator missile, harrier strike, and AC-130.