Rumors of War...

[ReconRat]

12,000+ special operations troops are in Jordan for a joint "training" exercise. On the Syria border. US, British, French, Canadian, Saudi, etc, 19+ different countries. It's actually an annual event that Jordan sponsors.

Eager Lion 2012

American amphibious ship Iwo Jima berths at Jeddah port

Edited May 10, 2012 by ReconRat

[ReconRat]

Time for another little update:

Russians launch an mobile ICBM from a military base in South East Russia as a test. It was visible in Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, etc (and Iran, but Iran doesn't say one word about it). Moving away to the East, to land in a testing area about 1000km away. What isn't mentioned, is the the military base is one of the closest to Tehran, across the Caspian Sea. Which means Tehran is within range of that launch. Point-Iran, Counter Point-Russia. Thinking it makes a little statement there. Don't mess with Russia.

Syria threatens/intends to move all their mobile Scud missile launchers across the border into Lebanon where "they will be safer". Israel intends to turn them into smoking holes in the ground if they do.

Somehow Syrian rebels got over to the Syrian army and air force bases near the Israeli/Syria border and destroyed the aircraft and helicopters (and got away). Using mortars, RPGs, and maybe some small missiles. Serious business, not much news.

Politically, the UN decides to let Russia & etc lead on dealings with Syria. Part of it is the deployment of several thousand Russian special troops to secure Syrian locations storing WMDs, mostly chemical gases and nerve agents. Reason is to prevent such from getting into the hands of actual terrorists. Since it's pretty much known that Al Qaeda and similar are on both sides of every conflict everywhere over there. Sort of hired guns. And most are already known to want and be planning getting those WMDs. Russia is ok with Assad leaving, but everyone has no clue how and when. Nobody wants to actually go and fight, except France, which came up with a plan to just bomb the Hell out of Assad. This would probably actually work, since Assad and crew are all holed up in a small obvious fortress. edit: oops, situation completely flipped. Russia declines completely. Preferring to do nothing at all. Iran links nuclear talks to Syria, so both become stalemated.

USA admits that we have been at war in Pakistan near the Afghanistan border (North Waziristan and etc) for a long time. Almost entirely drones. Drone War, and it works.

Pakistan extorts cost of running supplies into Afghanistan from Pakistan. So supplies switch to next best location, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan (all the other borders). Pakistan decides to reverse decision. In part, because NATO forces invite India to participate and take an interest in the Afghanistan/Pakistan border. That caught somebody's attention.

Situation made more complicated, by military deals between Israel and Azerbaijan. As well as high dollar trade deals on gas and oil. Some of the Azerbaijan oil/gas fields border those in Iran. Israel locks down a large portion of Azerbaijan oil/gas as exports. Logical after Egypt shuts their supply off after their revolution. Actions also include Russia stepping in and buying major stakes in recent Israeli gas and oil exploration (Azerbaijan got a portion also). Yes, complicated.

edit: Cyprus oil/gas discoveries are part also, partnered with Israel. And is one of the main reasons why Turkey is "all mad bro" and now messing with Israel, when previously a partner.

Edited June 30, 2012 by ReconRat

[kawi kid]

My brain is numb.

[ReconRat]

Rumors have it that there are a lot of troop movements in Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Don't know yet, it's very hard to find a second source of info.

What is true. Syria is falling apart. It won't take too long.

The new Syria might not be much better, but at least the fighting will slow down.

Humor: So talking to a guy at work, and he suddenly says Turkey has all Russian and old Soviet equipment. I'm stunned, I know they certainly do not. So I tell him "No they don't". And he insists they do. I give up after a while and walk away.

He probably confused Egypt. There it would be true. Turkey has F-4E Phantoms and F-16s and is on schedule to buy F-35s. Their army has German Leopard main battle tanks, M-60T Patton, rebuilt M-48s, and a lot of old M-47s. Most everything else, Turkey creates and manufactures in Turkey. They have the skill, and are the third most powerful NATO member in military assets.

Why does Russia care about Syria? It's one of their last places of influence (and sales of arms exports). More importantly, Syria is the last location of a Russia seaport outside Russia. The one at Tartus, Syria. Without that, Russia isn't the world power they once were. Granted, it's not much having lost all the others, but it would be "the last straw".

[smashweights]

Why do I have this sneaking suspicion the Pentagon has had a "Disabling North Korea in 24 hours or less" plan for a while now? It can't be that hard, 3.6 times smaller than Iraq.

[ReconRat]

I've often insisted that lack of water will cause most of the future warfare.

Not too crazy, since any map of where wars are fought, matches where water is found. Hard to tell if water is necessary for war, or war is necessary for water. Quite noticeable in the Middle East where water is scarce.

A recent UN sponsored study says the Earth can sustain a maximum population of 262 billion people. The remainder of the planet's surface has to produce food. We wouldn't run out of water on the average, but it would be problematic in certain areas. It already is.

The guesstimate is for around 2100, 50% of the population could suffer water shortages. It would also mean roughly a quarter of the water resources would have to be under strict government control.

[ReconRat]

Why do I have this sneaking suspicion the Pentagon has had a "Disabling North Korea in 24 hours or less" plan for a while now? It can't be that hard, 3.6 times smaller than Iraq.

Terrible place to try and deal with. An awful lot of weaponry. Everything is buried in tunnels and bunkers. Everyone is in the military. They are very well trained. They won't even turn on the lights so you can see to navigate. Your best bet is to find the military food supplies, suddenly destroy a large percentage of it and cut and run. Sit back and wait.

But to answer the question, battle simulations are run on huge computers for everything in the world. They run them until it's clear how to win. Then they do some more simulations. Yeah, there are answers.

Edited June 30, 2012 by ReconRat

[Strictly Street]

Turkey has scrambled six F-16 fighters jets near its border with Syria after Syrian helicopters came close to the border, the country's army says.

Six jets were sent to the area in response to three such incidents on Saturday, the statement said, adding that there was no violation of Turkish airspace.

Last month, Syrian forces shot down a Turkish jet in the border area.

The incident further strained already tense relations between former allies.

Turkey's government has been outspoken in its condemnation of Syria's response to the 16-month anti-government uprising, which has seen more than 30,000 Syrian refugees enter Turkey.

===========

People are real twitchy it seems. With the political troubles in Syria it's starting to look like the military flexing of muscles might get out of hand. Three times in one day?

[ReconRat]

Warning: perhaps not safe for work or children - death depicted

Two Taliban commanders wanted the same woman. So they executed her for being an adulterer.

And we want this country to be a semi-NATO ally? What's wrong with them? What's wrong with us?

edit: Both Taliban commanders were subsequently killed by a third Taliban commander.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=d07_1341759976

Edited July 9, 2012 by ReconRat

[ReconRat]

Ok, that was a surprise. Not totally unexpected though.

Rumor is the Russians have almost completely abandoned their base/seaport in Syria.

No big deal, except that's where Assad's weapons, ammo, spare parts, material supply came from. That now stops, except for what Iran can deliver. That won't be very much.

Iran is in the hole for a billion dollars so far, trying to prop up Assad and Syria.

Russia probably left because Syria wasn't paying for stuff anymore.

Bait for the varmint. Iran needs to move troops (more than they have) to Syria or get out and drop support. Now it's getting close to the end, or close to the start, whichever way anyone wants to view it.

(edit: ok, that prediction came true, now didn't it? Late September and Iran is moving troops into Syria.)

Does this timing have anything to do with an upcoming US election?

Of course it does, but it really shouldn't. That's just bad behavior to play that card.

Edited October 6, 2012 by ReconRat

[attentiongetter92]

Warning: perhaps not safe for work or children - death depicted

Two Taliban commanders wanted the same woman. So they executed her for being an adulterer.

And we want this country to be a semi-NATO ally? What's wrong with them? What's wrong with us?

edit: Both Taliban commanders were subsequently killed by a third Taliban commander.

LiveLeak.com - Taliban publicly execute woman near Kabul

What a fucked up country.

[ReconRat]

How quickly scenarios in the Middle East change.

Turkey and Syria now not friends.

My Spidey sense is tingling on this one. Not much in the news.

Iran-Turkey border. They share a common border and a common enemy in the separatist PPK rebels (Kurdistan Worker's Party) that camp out around there. So here's what's happening, that is not in the news. Despite the nicey nice news articles about opening a new border crossing in such a friendly way. When relations got completely reversed between Syria and Turkey, Iran got attitude and removed all of their troops from the Kurdish areas near Turkey, and allowed them to operate against Turkey. Turkey noticed. More recently, Syria has let it be known to Turkey, that Turkey would have to fight their way through the Kurdish rebels to get to Syria. That's a threat times two.

Now add in the shelling across border into Turkey. It started Wednesday, but has continued every day since. Turkey has put out a third warning, and this time has declared it will not be tolerated under any circumstances. Add in a legislative directive in Turkey authorizing military action, and a UN admonishment against Syria that got ratified by everyone including China and Russia. That generally only happens right before some action takes place.

But the Iran-Turkey border is completely quiet (in the news), and that's interesting.

I expect Turkish airstrikes across the Iranian border into Iran to hit the PPK Kurdish rebels. This already happens on a regular basis across the border into Iraq. Recently both Turkey AND Iran were shelling across borders at Kurdish rebels in Iraq, at the same time. Turkey may elect to carve a chunk out of Syria along the border. That's the plan, but it hasn't happened yet. News is that Syrian rebels are now organized and directed by Turkey, without Turkey crossing the border.

A little history. Way back when tribal groups ruled the area of Persia (Iran), much of Iran was over run by invasions from the area of Turkey (Ottoman Empire). So there really is a deep seated background between the two areas. Not to mention a couple of historical conflicts and invasions with Russia (Prussian) against both Turkey (Ottoman) and Iran (Persia), at separate times.

edit: Historically, both Ottoman and Persian empires had over run most of the Middle East, at the height of their power.

So both really still are major players in the area.

edit again: And yes, there is some thoughts that Iraq would join with Iran, if Syria were to fall to Turkey.

Now that's a major game changer. It has all the potentials of being a conflict to rival the Vietnam War.

ESSENTIAL FRIENDS AND NATURAL ENEMIES:

THE HISTORIC ROOTS OF TURKISH-IRANIAN RELATIONS

Edited October 6, 2012 by ReconRat

[vf1000ride]

Just push the button and end all the fighting. One big sheet of glass.

Granted, if they are so busy fighting each other, maybe terrorism around the rest of the planet will be reduced. We should let them have their war and then we only have to wipe out the winners.

[ReconRat]

...We should let them have their war and then we only have to wipe out the winners...

A time honored tradition in combat. Always an option. Often taken advantage of.

[ReconRat]

Sooo... troop movements again. Game is changing.

Other than the task force exercise in the Gulf, which followed the mine sweeping exercise in the Gulf. And other than the missile defense exercise on the ground in Israel. (And whatever troops aren't doing in Jordan.) Other than Iranian troops moving to Syria and back to Iran again.

Turkey has pointed out in the news the border defenses they have spent years creating along the Turkey-Iran border. It's for finding smugglers, but interesting they pointed it out right now. About 24 tall watch towers to prevent incursions. Nearly completed, it took years.

Turkey continues to reinforce and defend their Turkey-Syria border. Turkey so far refrains from air strikes with aircraft.

Hezbollah is moving rockets and missiles and artillery out of Lebanon and back into Syria. Supposedly for use against rebels, but if it goes to the Turkish border, the situation changes quickly.

Russia, moves S-400 anti-aircraft batteries to their border closest to Turkey. I have no idea what that is about yet. Look at the map, it's closer to Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. And not that far from Iran. The only thing that makes sense, is to quietly load them on ships and move them to Iran. Another game changer.

Unnamed US aircraft squadron moves from unnamed middle eastern country to another unnamed middle eastern country. This one is actually pretty significant, but let's not hand out details yet, since it's very much not in the news at all.

Iran is doing the weasel, since the timing of an attack around the election is making them nervous. It's possible, so they are "willing to negotiate" currently. Won't work, because item one is Obama wants 24/7 inspections on the nuclear stuff. They won't do it. No attack seen coming, but everything is pretty much in place to begin doing so. Letting the negotiations continue is a pretty good idea. Doesn't help in Syria though. Over there it's still thought that Assad won't make it more than 6 more months. As said before, Syria is a country that averages a war, revolution, insurrection, every 2 or 3 years on the average. So it's really not something to get deeply involved in. Better to just defend the borders around Syria and protect the refugees fleeing.

[Pokey]

I predict WWIII before my lifetime.

[kawi kid]

WwIII

[ReconRat]

So what's the deal with shooting at that drone near Iran. I'd think that would have been a regular deal, observing along the coast. At 4am in the morning. I'm guessing that Iran was doing something that day that they didn't want people to see. So they chased the drone away. Probably moving stuff around related to Syria. Iraq has been allowing Iran to sneak stuff through Iraq and over into Syria. The drone was up near the Iran-Iraq border, over the gulf.

And that Iranian helicopter drone over Israel? Iran is arguing that it wasn't brought down intact for examination. The rumor is that Israel brought it down with a cable tangled in it's helicopter blades. From another aircraft. Not the explosion shown that would have completely destroyed it. What I want to know, is that if it had video and flight up-link capability, wouldn't the Iranians have seen that and know if it came down intact? Or were the signals jammed at the time?

[ReconRat]

I've been noticing some troop and equipment movements this last week. All going to the East. They are on the way to the Mediterranean & Egyptian Sinai desert.

An agreement was made just prior tho the end of Israeli-Gaza conflict. Americans will take over the hunt for arms smugglers in the Sinai, along the Suez canal and Gaza border. A previous agreement was to build a Suez canal fence and patrol it. But this is more direct. This is actually action against Iranian routes of equipment moving into Gaza.

Or in other words, America's first direct action against Iranian interests.

[ReconRat]

Not good. Syrian chemical weapon stockpiles are showing activity. Not the normal patterns. More like readiness to operate and deploy. Don't think that this was not expected. Estimates are 75,000 American/NATO troops will be needed to secure all the chemical weapons.

See post above. Material and supplies were already in motion. Expect more equipment to move. If you know what to look for, you'll see it when trains go past.

Assad and Syrian government have taken several severe setbacks lately. Patriot missiles in Turkey would deny that airspace adjacent to the border. US naval vessels off shore would deny the airspace adjacent. One of the three large Syrian radars was captured by rebels. The one opposite the Israeli border. So most of the country will lose government air cover.

Last week the Syrian internet and phone systems went off line. 100% gone. It's back on line after a day or two. It appeared to be a test of the capabilities to shut it all down.

Speed and stealth are vital to secure the chemical weapons.

Notice that Gaza isn't a topic. That's more of a political thing where votes are made with rockets.

edit: There's a rumor that Assad is dead or gone, but not likely. Considering the extents necessary to prevent assassination or poisoning, Assad isn't seen very often. Nor is his location known at any time.

Edited December 2, 2012 by ReconRat

[scottb]

Recon, thank you for these posts. I have not been following world events and really not sure what to make of alot this information. Other then, stuff may be about to happen that will involve the US military?

It seems that some of these countries have been flying below the radar so to speak and now may become major players in world events?

[ReconRat]

It's like designing an aircraft. 9 out of ten never fly. They don't get off the paper.

Conflicts are the same way. 9 out of 10 are solved some other way, or are over before anyone else can get involved.

Sometimes just promising to get involved will prevent it in the first place. Or stop it once it starts.

Those countries that want to be "major players" have a lot of learning to do. The real major players are way ahead and ready.

edit: Be aware that when political or military items make it into the news, that a lot of it is disinformation.

It's often hard to figure out what is actually happening or going to happen. It's all guess work by all parties involved.

Last week stuff looked like it was going to Egypt/Sinai desert. Not so sure this week.

And remember that an incredible amount of force is already there, and not being discussed openly.

edit2: The naval forces of the USA and Russia that went to Israel to stand by to "evacuate citizens", both quietly sneaked off to "off the coast of Gaza". All of that was disinformation. Both groups sneaked off to the Syrian coastline, where they are now as far as anyone knows.

Edited December 2, 2012 by ReconRat

[whaler]

Wonder where all of those Syrian chemical weapons came from...hmmmmm?

[ReconRat]

Wonder where all of those Syrian chemical weapons came from...hmmmmm?

Most are straight up sales from Russia. But rumors still persist about Iraqi WMDs hidden in remote locations of Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. Some of which have strong evidence behind the claims, but all require way too much effort to track down. Easier to just wait till somebody snitches the location. It's a cat and mouse game. Too easy to move and hide in a new spot.

[BikerBoy]

Warning: perhaps not safe for work or children - death depicted

Two Taliban commanders wanted the same woman. So they executed her for being an adulterer.

And we want this country to be a semi-NATO ally? What's wrong with them? What's wrong with us?

edit: Both Taliban commanders were subsequently killed by a third Taliban commander.

LiveLeak.com - Taliban publicly execute woman near Kabul

Just for the record , this is way fucked up and doesn't reflect religion view.