The evidence is more on the side of a 2012 ban no matter what, per statements the NCAA has made. As long as OSU hires Urban Meyer before the NCAA rules on their sanctions, OSU is getting a 2012 ban. They didn't get a bowl ban because of tats. They got a bowl ban for improper benefits, the coach covering it up, then players still taking improper benefits. The issues in winter and spring sealed the repeat offender status (even though the basketball program basically put OSU into that status). OSU is lucky that they didn't get hit with LOIC. We should be happy what we got is ALL we got.
Also, I don't "love Gene Smith". I just think that most OSU fans are idiots when it comes to balancing the positive vs the negative. Apparently 1 negative = -500 points, 1 positive = 1 point.