Spinoff: stock buy investment bp/gs

[Stallion Motorsports1647545491]

without putting alot of thought into this lets talk about the way long term with these two...

 

1) BP-BP-sure this spill is going to cost a ton however, if it gets to the $35-$40 range...profit?

2) GS-Goldman Sachs Group Inc.-possible law suit, federal court, blah blah, however if it goes to $100-$120...profit?

 

once again, this isnt something i am sold on just yet, however, these are two major players in the games they are in, sure there is a huge risk with both, but isnt that what it is all about? there are tons of people smarter than me at this...thoughts?

 

tom

[nurkvinny]

Interesting ideas. No idea.

[zeitgeist57]

I recommend waiting on BP and TransOcean (RIG) for a couple of weeks then buy and profit.

[Guest 614Streets]

I think both companies face long term trouble and liquidity. GS will be fine either way even under a severe short I see a funnel that makes them billions on the way down. Both will become trader stocks and be very liquid IMO. I do not see either doing well long term. Both companies have tarnished reputations and thats a very bad thing. Luckly they are both very wealthy. But I see both being hammered even more.

 

This could add a little warmth to biofuel plays....

 

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=GS,PLPCWANRBR[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G

 

 

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=bp,PLPCWANRBR[P][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G

 

Long I like Ford and Mcdonalds.

Edited May 2, 2010 by 614Streets

[2highpsi]

I told myself earlier I would be done with this conversation, but since it warranted a spinoff thread I will reply.

 

This is my personal opinion and what I look for. As far as I am concerned, REAL long term market moves are based on two things: profit and growth. Now can a stock go through the roof without profit and growth? Sure they can. Look at the tech boom of the late 90s early 00s. Stocks had N/A PE due to zero profit. People still watched stocks go from $50 to $1000. Everyone said it was different this time. What followed was one of the biggest bubble explosions ever and most of those stocks all but disappeared. The reason being is simple, and I just can't believe how many people over look it. When you buy stock, you literally own part of the company. Now do you want to own a company that makes money or loses money?

 

So then the question becomes how do you make money on companies that make money and have good growth. Well these companies are usually already established and aren't "home run" stocks. You aren't going to double your money in a year. But you also don't have to worry about the stock going away either. So what I look for are value moves. Good stocks that are down because of market over reactions, ie. GS and BP. Buying at 52 week highs aren't going to net you double digit one year returns usually, so you almost have to wait for some sort of bad news to come out to get in at a lower entry point.

 

GS, for example, regarless of what happens with the investigation WILL MAKE MONEY. In fact a large source of thier revenue is thier Wealth Management division. They make a percentage of the assets that they manage, and as the market goes up the value of those accounts go up as do the fees. So they are looking to grow, make good money, and are trading well below the 52 week high.

 

BP also WILL MAKE MONEY this year. The estimates I seen as far as what the clean up will cost the company came in around 3% of what the company will make this year. So I see a 17% share price drop as a market over reaction. The best part of this stock is that it pays a healthy dividend. Meaning, even if the stock is still around the same price next year, atleast you would make 6.4% on your money via dividend and given the current rate enviroment that's not too bad.

 

Now I am not saying these companies can't drop a little more. They very well might. I don't look for ROCK bottoms because you miss too many oppertunies doing so. For example I started gettin in Ford @5 all the way down to 2. Cost averaged at 3.50. I am out now. They have rising costs, share prices are at a 5 year high, and I look for some sideways movement before it starts the climb again.

 

You also need to spread your risk and diversify properly. So depending on how much you have in assets and where else you are currently invested makes a big difference on what you should buy. It is not a one size fits all kind of thing.

 

I hope that helps some and make a little bit of sence. Again, everyone has different view points. Do some research, work with someone you trust, and never do anything you don't personally believe in.

[Supplicium]

I would stay away from BP atm. I heard the govt is tryin to go after them for them 300 billion cleanup cost. Also, I would buy call options if you want to go long GS

[ImUrOBGYN]

I would stay away from BP atm. I heard the govt is tryin to go after them for them 300 billion cleanup cost. Also, I would buy call options if you want to go long GS

 

Yep, plus some. I know at least two of their plants, one in Ohio and one in Texas City are under serious threat govt. Here's an article on the Texas City debacle. I wish I could find the original story I read recently about their mulitple investigations of BP.

 

http://www.csb.gov/newsroom/detail.aspx?nid=215

[ImUrOBGYN]

Little BP info from before the recent spill, etc:

 

Timeline: BP's Woes

January 16, 2007 10:32 a.m.

BP is struggling to put behind it a series of problems in the U.S., including a refinery explosion in Texas killed 15 people in March 2005 and an oil spill in Alaska discovered earlier this year. Below is a timeline of the energy giant's woes.

 

2002

June: BP agrees to a $45.8 million settlement with the state of California, resolving allegations that dozens of service stations it now owns in the state didn't make required safety upgrades.

 

2005

March: A deadly explosion at BP's Texas City, Texas, refinery kills 15 workers, all of them employees of contractors doing work at the plant. It was the third fatal accident at the petrochemical and refining facility in the past year and the deadliest U.S. petro-chemical accident in 15 years.

 

April: The U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration puts BP on a safety watch list.

 

May: BP backtracks on an earlier statement that blamed managers and other workers for the March blast at its Texas refinery....

 

August: The Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board calls on BP to set up an independent panel to review safety across its U.S. refining operations. Former Secretary of State James Baker is eventually tapped to lead the report.

 

September: BP agreed to pay workplace-safety regulators $21.4 million in fines for scores of "egregious" safety violations tied to the March 23 explosion. The fine is the largest industrial-accident settlement of its kind....

 

2006

March: Several thousand barrels of crude spill from a ruptured pipeline at Alaska's Prudhoe Bay field.

 

April: U.S. environmental regulators conduct a criminal investigation into BP's management of pipelines in Alaska's North Slope. BP said it has found another pipeline break caused by corrosion at a BP-operated facility on the Alaskan North Slope. OSHA fines BP $2.4 million for alleged safety violations in its Ohio refinery. In May, the agency later opened an investigation after a contract worker suffered severe burning....

 

August: BP shuts down its Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska following the discovery of a corroded pipeline and small leak there. Federal investigators probe changes made to a report commissioned by Alaska state officials on BP's operations there after the oil giant complained the report was overly negative.

 

September: BP says it had spilled about 1,000 barrels of a refined petroleum product into the port of Long Beach, Calif., the latest in a series of environmental, safety and compliance lapses in the U.S. A House committee grills BP executives on problems at Prudhoe Bay, the first of a series of harsh congressional sessions on the matter. BP will further postpone the start-up of its long-delayed Thunder Horse oil field in the Gulf of Mexico

 

October: The Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board, a federal agency, says cost cutting by senior executives led to the Texas refinery explosion. BP announces it is replacing Steve Marshall, the head of its Alaska division.

 

November: BP makes a last-minute settlement in a civil lawsuit stemming from the Texas explosion, including donating $32 million to institutions to aid health care, worker training and safety and education in Texas, Louisiana and Tennessee. The plaintiff received an undisclosed financial settlement. Indiana workplace-safety regulators propose fining BP about $384,000 for a series of violations at the company's Whiting, Ind., refinery....

 

2007

.... Jan. 16: An independent panel set up to review BP's refinery operations in the U.S. said company goals, such as cost-cutting, often overrode safety concerns at its plants.

[2highpsi]

Sweet, my first limit order just filled. ; )

[Supplicium]

whats your play?

[Guest 614Streets]

double post

[Guest 614Streets]

whats your play?

 

Yeah whats your play? Im sitting on the sidelines with cash.

[LJ]

BP will probably sue Cameron, the producer of the BOP, and a lot of the blame actually lies with them, as it was THEIR BOP that failed causing the spill. In a normal situation, the rig and pipline should be able to disappear from the face of the earth and the BOP would shut the well off from the ocean floor.

[2highpsi]

whats your play?

I had a buy BP limit @ 48

Have a couple more, but it never hit the lower thresholds yet.

[Supplicium]

I had a buy BP limit @ 48

Have a couple more, but it never hit the lower thresholds yet.

 

nice, I like the entry.

 

I also heard some news HAL is to blame

[LJ]

nice, I like the entry.

 

I also heard some news HAL is to blame

 

The only company at fault for the actual spill is Cameron, who manufactured the BOP that passed all testing, but actually failed when push came to shove (the BOPs are tested by the EPA every 7 days).

[Supplicium]

Thanks for the info LJ.

 

I am thinking about playing sometype of spread on CAM.

[LJ]

Might be too early for a CAM play. I don't know what kind of insurance policy they have or anything like that.

 

My guess would be that A few years from now they get sued and end up being owned by BP.

[Tractor]

GS I know nothing about and ain't gonna touch it due to having no clue. BP I'm watching closely and will be day/swing trading it over the next few months/years because I already have some experience in offshore drilling and energy stocks with TEC (now gone, but was great for day trades), VAL, and DO both good swing trades at times.

[Tractor]

The only company at fault for the actual spill is Cameron, who manufactured the BOP that passed all testing, but actually failed when push came to shove (the BOPs are tested by the EPA every 7 days).

 

If they are really tested like that then thats gonna be some law suit and interesting investigation and it also makes playing BP a much safer bet then it seemed to be.

[LJ]

If they are really tested like that then thats gonna be some law suit and interesting investigation and it also makes playing BP a much safer bet then it seemed to be.

 

lets not forget the fact that BP only owns the lease to the well, none of the equipment was theirs.

[LJ]

How'd everyone do with the Flash Crash today?

[Guest 614Streets]

How'd everyone do with the Flash Crash today?

 

I pulled out 100% of siri last week at 1.20 , rebought yesterday at 1.11 and resold at 1.13 , made 1200 yesterday laying in bed ,on the sidelines for next two days....

 

Wish I had traded today I missed 15 grand swing on siri 1.11 to .86! and then back to 1.04! Wow.

 

 

Anyways get ready for GS , I will be eyeing how you guys do with that play , Im not touching gs

[AWW$HEEET]

I pulled out 100% of siri last week at 1.20 , rebought yesterday at 1.11 and resold at 1.13 , made 1200 yesterday laying in bed ,on the sidelines for next two days....

 

Wish I had traded today I missed 15 grand swing on siri 1.11 to .86! and then back to 1.04! Wow.

 

 

Anyways get ready for GS , I will be eyeing how you guys do with that play , Im not touching gs

 

Im up 70% on FITB, I may exit my FITB position and get into GS, likely with some cash as well.

[Tractor]

I was hoping BP would come down more, but looks like someone read Lance's above posts about BP's liability in the matter because their stock price has basically shrugged off any negative news already. I didn't end up buying it when I saw it was holding pretty well at 48-49 the other day.

 

 

I was just telling my wife that if she wanted now would be a good time to sell her FITB and mess with something else. She's up 400% over 12 months and I'm not expecting FITB to do anymore than $16 for a few years. She wants to go long though.