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Wx: 2010/2011 Winter Forecasts


jeffro

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My favorite time of the year is coming up for Wx observations. Similar to last year, this year i will be following storms weeks out and watch them develop as they get closer to forming. For those of you interested in learning about meteorology, head over to the Accuweather.com forums here: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showforum=11 Tons of interesting things to read/look at. There you can find long range models, make predictions, and watch them come to life.

 

adding a link for future models: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

 

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/38281/henrys-winter-forecast-for-dec-1-2010-to-march-31-2011.asp

According to Henry Margusity, a well respected forecaster from Accuweather.com, looks like we'll have an active winter, with lots of mixed precip and ice. video inside the link.

 

I know there are several people here involved with snow removal, so thought you'd be interested in what you have to look forward to.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2010/590x447_10041518_highlights.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2010/590x447_10041519_snowfall.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2010/590x447_10041517_precip.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2010/590x447_10041527_temps.png

Edited by jeffro
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I have seen 1 white with black about a month ago in hocking hills, 1 light brown today, and about 2,000 brown, most with black heads and or tails.

 

The head/tail parts are all black around here and are getting bigger. Ive seen one full black one and a couple all brown, no white at all though.

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i know this is a long way out, but it has potential to be our first snowfall of the year. this cold blows without the snow.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-16713-1289192113.gif

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_zt1IrYTCrOo/TNgPztP3F-I/AAAAAAAABHE/awqQU76MVHI/s640/first%20snow.jpg

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Business idea: Create a website where all these weather nerds can have a profile and predict the weather, etc. You can get "points" by being more accurate -- sort of like a game. Nerds can then compare their scores and epeens, level up, whatever.

 

(Assuming something like that doesn't already exist.)

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Fixed. Come up to Mentor or Chardon and live in the snowbelt for a winter. You can put that Audi to good use ;).

 

Cleveland is still nothing, try living where my fiancee is from or her best friend

 

Average snowfalls

Columbus - 28"

Cleveland- 61.4"

Buffalo NY- 95.4"

Syracuse NY- 121"

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My in-laws live up in WI and a couple years back that had several feet by thanksgiving.

 

Her parents live in the mountains south of Buffalo (think Holiday Valley) and had 6 inches on the ground before the end of Oct. It's insane up there

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Any predictions on just how cold it will be this season?

 

 

 

This is Joe Bastardi's forecast, he is a pretty highly paid meteorologist for accuweather and many companies pay him for forecasts for the year to plan business around weather.

 

Forecast for 09-10 (Spot on)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGfQQE3iLhI

 

His forecast for this year:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34891/winter-2011-heavier-snow-for-c.asp

 

Wintry Battle Zone But No Snowmageddon

In general, the East Coast will be granted a reprieve from the tremendous snowfall that caused 2009-2010's winter to be dubbed "snowmageddon."

This does not mean a free pass for the Northeast. Bastardi predicts late November and December could get winter off to a fast start in the East, with a major thaw coming for much of the country in January.

Bastardi makes the early cold connection between this year's active hurricane season and his winter forecast.

He said that years that see significant landfall, such as 1995, 2008 and 2005, usually also have cold for much of the eastern and central portions of the nation in December.

He said this year from the central Rockies to the Northeast a higher variance of temperatures will be present - "greater-than-normal swings between winter's coldest and warmest days." The conflicting warm and cold air masses contributing to these temperature fluctuations have placed this area into what Bastardi calls the "Wintry Battle Zone."

Despite the wild swings in temperatures, cities like New York, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C., will still have near-normal snowfall. To put this in perspective, New York City receives an average of 28.4 inches of snowfall during winter.

Edited by Benjamin
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