CoronaVirus

[wagner]

Real and unbiased information here. Not a single finger being pointed, just real facts on what's happening.

 

[Tractor]

My problem with that video saying that China has been showing good signs of recovery is that China is an exporter which means they build things and they sell it to us. We on the other hand are a consumer economy which means it will take us longer because we need people earning money and consuming (chinese goods) and domestic services. My region here at Myrtle Beach and South Carolina in general is going to be hit very hard because the area is 90% or more hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment. My county does about $2.5 billion in tax revenue for the area and state so its gonna be fun here the next couple years.

[Forrest Gump 9]

Tomorrow will be four weeks of not working for me.

[wagner]

My problem with that video saying that China has been showing good signs of recovery is that China is an exporter which means they build things and they sell it to us. We on the other hand are a consumer economy which means it will take us longer because we need people earning money and consuming (chinese goods) and domestic services. My region here at Myrtle Beach and South Carolina in general is going to be hit very hard because the area is 90% or more hospitality, restaurants, and entertainment. My county does about $2.5 billion in tax revenue for the area and state so its gonna be fun here the next couple years.

 

That's something that wasn't addressed in the video. I trust The Economist overall based on their reputation, we used them as a source a lot in grad school.

 

It's a scary time for sure and I don't think there's a way to really quantify the level of impact this is going to have in the long run. This is a Chernobyl type situation, the initial explosion is horrific and then the lingering problems just keep the pain coming.

[Buck531]

I just want to have my furniture delivered in May so I can move back into my damn house and do random house things and drink beer in the garage.

[Brandon]

I think the idea that only the unhealthy are the only people dying from this needs to be addressed. It's not just the old, sick, fat, multiple comorbidity people that are dying. Predominantly? Yes. But there are still a fair number of younger healthy folks who are getting wrecked by this. I know everyone is itching to get out of the house and get back to work, but we really need to let this settle down a bit first. Its going to be really hard to support your family if you're dead.

 

This is not and attack to undermine the risks you are taking to help save and lessen the suffering. That risk you are taking is paramount to all those families and people whom are ill from this virus, thanks to your efforts today, tomorrow and in the future for all illness beyond just this about face of cov2.

 

Playing contrarian for the sake of discussion.

 

What is a fair number in which our nation has taken to lock down a nation of statistically healthy people (not just quarantine the sick)?

 

Should we lock down for .08 - .03% of people WHOM have Covid-19 and die under the age of 54? (.000006 of the population)

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

 

Again cases are real, and a very small amount of folks under 54 will suffer but the context is important. We know that the data we are utilizing today is going to be adjusted by orders of magnitude. That doesn't change the lives affected I will admit, however this is affecting more then just the sick, also by orders of magnitude. It is a hard "number" to get right.

[Gergwheel1647545492]

It's only a matter of time before people really start to turn against the restrictions and the real trouble starts.

 

Like PA stopping the sales of liquor? How soon before pittsburgh and philly riot?

[spankis]

...What is a fair number in which our nation has taken to lock down a nation of statistically healthy people (not just quarantine the sick)?

 

Should we lock down for .08 - .03% of people WHOM have Covid-19 and die under the age of 54? (.000006 of the population)

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm

 

Again cases are real, and a very small amount of folks under 54 will suffer but the context is important. We know that the data we are utilizing today is going to be adjusted by orders of magnitude. That doesn't change the lives affected I will admit, however this is affecting more then just the sick, also by orders of magnitude. It is a hard "number" to get right.

 

Couple things.

 

First, the "under 54" mantra is silly.

 

Second thing, the problem too few people are discussing is that people are on average dumb and selfish. Telling the public in mass to "use their own judgment" to do the right thing won't work. That was pretty well proven when more lax orders to stay home and avoid large groups were issued. Restaurants were still packed, bars were packed, stores were still reasonably busy, folks were still filling the Discount Tire waiting room to get their essential new rims, etc.

 

Without accurate large volume testing, what would government direction to roll back lockdowns look like?

 

• - Only continue to maintain stay at home orders if you're over XX age?
  
• - Only continue to stay home if you're overweight, have COPD, have Asthma, have a history of pneumonia, have a weakened immune system, are a smoker, are pregnant, etc. etc.
  
• - Only continue to stay home (and do so for 14 days) if you have ANY symptoms, have travelled recently, have tested positive or have been exposed to anyone who's tested positive, etc. etc.
  
• - Continue to stay home if anyone in your household, anyone you provide care for, or anyone you must closely interact with fits any of the criteria above?
  

 

Etc. Etc. Etc.

 

The fact is it can't be enforced or even accurately followed by the public voluntarily. I think if we're all honest with ourselves we would all come to the same conclusion. As is the case with most governing, you have to manage to the lowest common denominator. Billy, Sally, and Stevie can't follow the rules and throw rocks during playtime, so outdoor recess is cancelled for everybody.

[KentStateTsi]

Yes, because mass punishment works so well. The more you regulate, the more people will defy that regulation.

[Tractor]

Maybe some are willing to risk death for freedom against the exact type of tyranny that would be required to save as many lives as possible.

 

Asking for a friend;-)

[greg1647545532]

Yes, because mass punishment works so well. The more you regulate, the more people will defy that regulation.

 

Unfortunately people will also be inclined to defy regulations if they believe bullshit pushed by propagandists and con-men. Examples include,

 

"It's just another flu!"

"It's not that bad if you're under 55!"

"States are inflating their numbers!"

"It's actually caused by 5G towers!"

"Democratic hoax!"

"The cure is worse than the disease!"

 

Some douchebag once said "Facts don't care about your feelings," and that works both ways. If people feel like they're being oppressed unnecessarily the virus don't care.

 

It seems inevitably at this point that uninformed pushback in red states will cause social distancing measures to be lifted without regard for the consequences, and we'll see a huge surge in deaths later this year.

[KentStateTsi]

Didn’t you say something about being in the military for quite a while? The greatest social experiment on earth. You know that policing everyone for actions of a few will just push more of those that usually fall in line to disregard these regulations. If we’re all subject to the same action, why not do what we want right?

[spankis]

Yes, because mass punishment works so well. The more you regulate, the more people will defy that regulation.

 

Along those same lines, let's start rolling back some other regulations. Why require speed limits? Why require seatbelts? Not that many people speed, not that many people get in accidents. Might as well let people voluntarily choose to drive safely and hope it all works out. People who can't avoid accidents and can't drive reasonable speeds should just stay off the road... Not sure I'd call that mass punishment but more just law and order.

 

You know that policing everyone for actions of a few will just push more of those that usually fall in line to disregard these regulations. If we’re all subject to the same action, why not do what we want right?

 

These are great questions, but do you have any great answers?

 

I on the whole don't get this mentality, not just in this context but in daily life, decision making at work, and more. It's this idea of "letting the perfect be the enemy of the good" that I've always felt is nonsense. You don't choose to do nothing/almost nothing while spinning your wheels trying to develop a solution that 100% of people are okay with. Every solution is imperfect in some way, and to quote Teddy Roosevelt "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are."

[KentStateTsi]

I don’t have any good answers, only observations from my time in the Army. While an incredibly small portion of society, I still believe general constructs and behaviors are similar enough to make those statements. What I’m getting at is this: People want to work and have been living as advised for a few weeks now. That stimulus check is going to be spent faster than a tax return and will not support a large portion of the population through May/June. Similar in fashion to how much of our criminal deterrents no longer work. If there aren’t examples of specific enforcement, those people that want/need to work/find work will do so without regard.

[Mace1647545504]

Along those same lines, let's start rolling back some other regulations. Why require speed limits? Why require seatbelts? Not that many people speed, not that many people get in accidents. Might as well let people voluntarily choose to drive safely and hope it all works out. People who can't avoid accidents and can't drive reasonable speeds should just stay off the road... Not sure I'd call that mass punishment but more just law and order."

 

I like this idea..and those that do 65 in the passing lane without moving should be eliminated with extreme prejudice

[greg1647545532]

Didn’t you say something about being in the military for quite a while? The greatest social experiment on earth. You know that policing everyone for actions of a few will just push more of those that usually fall in line to disregard these regulations. If we’re all subject to the same action, why not do what we want right?

 

Yes, the military is very big on leadership. I've been in 18 years, from day 1 I've been hearing nonsense like "Back in my day we were told to just shut up and color, now I give this new generation of airmen an order and they want to know why!"

 

There is certainly a time and a place for shut up and color, or to follow orders without questioning why, but by and large effective leadership requires buy-in from your subordinates. Explain why life has to suck and if your troops respect you, and they see that you've got their best interests at heart, they'll do what's necessary. Bark orders that seem to contradict reality without offering an up explanation and you're going to get bitter troops, foot dragging, general malaise and possibly revolt.

 

It's certainly hard to be an effective leader if you have bad actors in your ranks spreading misinformation. That's all I'm saying.

[BuckeyeROC]

I like this idea..and those that do 65 in the passing lane without moving should be eliminated with extreme prejudice

 

That's a quick way to get rid of CRV drivers.

[xlr8tn]

The science is there.....there will be a 2nd wave. How big is up to us. Lift the orders too soon and we'll be repeating them at some point.

[gillbot]

The science is there.....there will be a 2nd wave. How big is up to us. Lift the orders too soon and we'll be repeating them at some point.

 

I agree. and if there is a 2nd wave of lockdowns the dissention will only be worse. We can see that tension building even in this very thread.

[Mallard]

The guy professing states rights from the beginning of his campaign, who claimed no responsibility in the disbanding of the pandemic response team, who claimed it's up to governor's in individual states to manage their own response, is now claiming he has "absolute authority" over the states. He doesn't. But it's clear he is willing to use his power to withhold resources from states in an effort to coerce governor's.

 

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[wagner]

I agree. and if there is a 2nd wave of lockdowns the dissention will only be worse. We can see that tension building even in this very thread.

 

That tension is all over the place and when it lets go things are going to get ugly. You've got people on one side screaming the sky is falling and we have to take these extreme measures. On the other side, you have those seeing the real-world reports and data about hospitals that are empty and the system isn't being overwhelmed.

 

It's not a good situation at all and there's no correct answer. The call has been made to burn down the house to kill the spiders so we just have to ride it out and try not to get burnt.

 

Wait until football gets delayed/canceled...

[Mallard]

You've got people on one side screaming the sky is falling and we have to take these extreme measures. On the other side, you have those seeing the real-world reports and data about hospitals that are empty and the system isn't being overwhelmed.

 

I don't think that's a fair characterization. There are hospital systems that are completely overwhelmed. There's still a massive shortage of PPE and testing. That's real world data, not propaganda.

 

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[BuckeyeROC]

Wait until football gets delayed/canceled...

 

As a college football fan, I don't think there is any way they let 100k+ people sit smashed together in a few months.

[spankis]

I don't think that's a fair characterization. There are hospital systems that are completely overwhelmed. There's still a massive shortage of PPE and testing. That's real world data, not propaganda.

 

As I've said already, perspective matters. From here in Ohio and other locations that have mitigated this reasonably well you hear "open 'er back up fer bidness". From other places that have suffered a lot more and continue to do so, you don't hear any of that. Even from here within Ohio, you don't hear people close to this (paramedics, hospital staff) screaming to open shit back up, only the folks sitting back away from it at home itching to end their annoyance.

 

Also - every state has a medical representative, and I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest they're far better at interpreting data than all of the armchair epidemiologists and statisticians in this thread. I don't hear too many of them suggesting there's much to support alot of the "open back up" suggestion you hear, in Red or Blue states. At what point did we begin disregarding these people's professional opinions to instead fall in line behind the politicians who yell loudest? Crazy times indeed.

 

Also also - The right have for years preached about the value of "a life". Now, in a discussion that largely boils down to how human life is valued in comparison to quantifiable economic loss, I hear a lot of "if some die it's no big deal" type conversations. Anybody want to hazard a guess about what changed?

[oh8sti]

As a college football fan, I don't think there is any way they let 100k+ people sit smashed together in a few months.

 

being in the entertainment industry we are seeing some pretty alarming things coming.

 

I do think by the fall they will allow smaller gatherings (concerts/shows for less than 2500 cap or so I think). But I would be surprised if they allow arena tours to go out. I have 1 arena tour that was scheduled for April-May that got moved to Late Sept-early Nov. Im worried that one wont go on. That alone is 10's of millions in lost revenue for 1 single business.

 

Keeping my fingers crossed though..