Brandon

If you want to set and forget, find some nice Vanguards and ETF's. Cathie Wood is all the rage atm. ARKK ARKG ARKS She has a lot of "disruption funds" you can see her performance and the volume of flows into the funds, its worth potentially a gamble on some of them, she also publishes models, thesis's ect which is nice to help decisions. There is some risk due to her consolidation into small cap companies being up to 10% or more of many holdings in the companies, IE systemic risk to weigh. Right now, ride the wave and volume of printing. Maybe some peace of mind, https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/12/what-if-you-only-invested-at-market-peaks/ IMO also do a little stock picking. Pick winners, big ones. Google Mircosoft Netflix Disney Apple, they likely will return outpaced yields to you. REITs are interesting, homebuying is an all time high, commercial not some much. Be careful on several of these IMO. I am bearish on the holdings and lease rates that drive leveraged FCF returns to their holders. Energy and financals are still laggards on the recovery side, XOM will have 15-20% upside this year imo on top of a 7% balance sheet backed dividend they will pay out. Some will argue that companies paying dividends are not utilizing their capital ccorrectly to grow and offer better yielding reutrns longer term then a dividend does. I hold XOM bought a fair position back in november, its been a nice return recently. Also I like to allocated 10% for moon shoot bets, no harm if you hit 1 for 10x vs 9 at zero. Good luck, and like others taking it into your own hands isnt bad. Reasonable approaches work fairly. Finally remember the rule of 72. Set a target for your IRA say 8-10% or whatever based on your risk profile. As such take that target return and divide it, EG: 15% / 72 = 4.8, the number of years it takes you to double your money. So that 6k at a 15% IRR will be about 100k after 20 years (No contributions) NOW 15% is likely high but you can see how that rule works

Fair analysis Tim! How does the expected mortality rates pre covid track YOY post covid, so expected Oct 19' vs expected Oct 20'. Just curious.

Side car to the Greg Panduh debate. Perhaps we can now drop the 'both sides' equivalence and admit why the US cities boarded-up last week? Fears of looting and arson were only if Trump got re-elected. A self questioning left should reflect here: Are you happy about having become the 'side' of implicit, expected violence?

Ridden my bike up and down Evans, its fun. Saw goats at the top. A little intimidating to descend if you peak over the edge. Stayed in Frisco for the Leadville mountain bike race, riding a lot of those trails you are driving on is great fun. That thin air is also fun to master!

Hypothetically if we are drastically under counting that would be a positive on all measurable tail effects?

Clever. You have one upped me. The author of the meme is crafting a false narrative with incomplete data; I thought that was only something conservatives practice? The authors basic math skill is accurate, I will credit that. Spending 5 minutes searching CDC, WHO, general search for "hospitalization rates, stokes, ect" all tail effects on COVID-19 shows nothing really lines up with the authors inputs, he is acting on hyperbole to express his opinion. (however valid current information is to be believed. And it is near* certain this data will be adjusted down by magnitudes of 3-10x based upon historical analysis of pandemic information). My mistake is me being snarky.

That meme is false and misleading. This statement saves me a lot of typing...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/elon-musk-calls-for-amazon-split-after-alex-berenson-claims-censorship.html Just interesting. Additionally my hunch is there will be no significant increase in covid cases from all of the protesting, beyond the established SI modeling rates. The increase if reported likely will be again due to testing increases. Is anyone concerned that Fauci softly back tracked his "second wave" comments thesis? He is playing the fence quite a bit now, maybe as he realizes the information he was sourced to help craft decisions was very poor? I do not know but it seems something to this effect.

The way those rolls weigh on NAV, they are literally trying to float the share price up to keep it listed to survive, because as it stands if they dont they know the pps will dip below 1 and thus render them in danger of delisting. People are also silly thinking buying USO as "cheap" oil is a good bet, they do not understand how that etf works... They have 150k contracts or so to dump in june they paid 25 bucks for or so, and you can see the june rolls around 15 now or what ever, but it will dive again with storage at its limit, and those contracts will be worthless again. Big haircuts. They are doing some serious shennigans to uncouple the fund from its NAV. The SEC blocked share creation as well I believe I read yesterday, which is interesting. The fund also is buying out into july and august now to help, vs its traditional short contract structure. It is very fishy. There is a lot of pressure on that fund right now, I had some put options that did well, and a few more. Fair chance it goes to zero poof if those june prices flatten baring government intervention however, which at this time is likely. About 175k call options bought yesterday however, so some are bullish clearly, but in the short term I would not place money in this equity, if you do use options to limit your exposure.

This is not and attack to undermine the risks you are taking to help save and lessen the suffering. That risk you are taking is paramount to all those families and people whom are ill from this virus, thanks to your efforts today, tomorrow and in the future for all illness beyond just this about face of cov2. Playing contrarian for the sake of discussion. What is a fair number in which our nation has taken to lock down a nation of statistically healthy people (not just quarantine the sick)? Should we lock down for .08 - .03% of people WHOM have Covid-19 and die under the age of 54? (.000006 of the population) https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm Again cases are real, and a very small amount of folks under 54 will suffer but the context is important. We know that the data we are utilizing today is going to be adjusted by orders of magnitude. That doesn't change the lives affected I will admit, however this is affecting more then just the sick, also by orders of magnitude. It is a hard "number" to get right.

I am ready to pay a fair price to test as well, for sure. I think most people would love the peace of mind. The key is also to make sure the test validate the right covid-19 some out there are only 95% accurate and showing positive for similar corona virus. Although some may not, "what I don't know cant hurt me"...Pretty ignorant

Again small sample sizes but the early results are what seems a logical hypothesis. This is matching up with Germany https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says Stanfords data should be out this week early. What if there was never a flatten the curve? What if they missed that window altogether (to mitigate) and like many countries once testing came on board (much later here) we are all experiencing a very similar curve (which appears to be the case)? If R0 is 2-2.5 and by CDC estimates 1 out of 31 imported shed on air travel from China at the early start of the virus back in late November would put around 3-5 million folks conservatively having the virus by the beginning of the "stop the spread" lock down order. https://www.contagionlive.com/news/statistical-models-forecast-locations-likely-to-see-covid19 People said Acton was clueless when she came out early with over 100k people having the virus, that doesn't seems too far reaching really. It certainly would not take long to get to 1000 important cases in the USA and around the globe at that rate in and out of Wuhan. If we humor the early model of 2.2 million dead. We have a fairly close guess on a known start date, we know the transmission spread rate, we know the air travel import rate, assuming 1000 cases by Dec 17th which is probably generous, we can essentially double on 4.x days, as well as adding 1000 spreaders every 5-7 days until the travel ban...These are CDC numbers, you get to around 3 million conservatively and that is with out adding more imported cases from Europe ect during that time line. If you use this basic math (which is off I know, I am sue I will get hammered) 29 days in feb, 15 in march 44 days and 11 doubling its like 6 billion, so uhhh...what. So clearly there is someone a little loose on the data here. Was it doubling because they were testing or spreading? https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/ Its likely just been lurking here, if COVID-19 was really on the rise the number of positive results would follow the number of tests given line closer or even close in on it? I would imagine. Data gathered in a pandemic is a huge problem to solve because its horribly unreliable. Look at the correction of H1N1 by and order of magnitude of 10 after the dust settled. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/ In the end It is likely plausible that SARS-COv2 is going to have a very high R knot but likely are very low CFR almost the same as the flu potentially lower once you uncover the underlying data. Novell virus's have historically followed a 3-4 month peak followed by flattening and sharp decline. If you think that it started here late December then it would appear to be peaking near the draconian lockdown measures? (Maybe) You can see this in some data...? You can point out this is when (march 15) physical distancing starts which may explain the leveling, however you could also say that it should still be doubling growing with bars restaurants spring breakers ect all out and about still that first week. I read the thread and see people complaining "no one taking it serious". But maybe it took a more historical course? Maybe I do not know. It is all just very interesting, to think in a different direction potentially. Maybe the market knew as well about peaking, as we know greed trumps all and transposing it is interesting. I know its a real threat, I am not intending to undermine those ill, just as I wouldn't with those struggling with cancer or another disease. But it is all just interesting to exercise ideas with in reason. A little tin foil, but not with fake numbers. Just a thought, and yes a low educated not and epidemiologist not and expert; ill sit back down thought. Back to antibody tests, really praying those show what we are seeing early signs of and we can kick this pandemic to the curb.

Stanford is assuming they have some herd immunity and hypothesize that the virus was in California much earlier then predicted. Which potentially could explain lower counts. Like in Germany they took a 2500 person sample to simulate information in santa clara. Eager for the results. Testing is the only way forward, and tons of it. Bill gates wants to essentially issue vaccination digital certs and testing certs to track folks. While I like this idea to actually just quarantine the sick, there could be far reaching implications. Even if this looks to be less of and impact at the moment, that flattened curve is just at bay right now, the transmission rates are the same as they were in February...We are just borrowing time, unless some of this data shows a lot more antibodies out in the population which is the best news to short term v shaped recovery vs a protracted u shaped tail. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-begins-blood-tests-coronavirus-immunity-reports-052340457.html SBA PPP program is moving the goal posts daily, its fun to watch. Its also interesting to ever assume they would be able to process all these loans based on their annual thresholds. Nice thought on the program, but bad execution thus far, par for the course. And funny enough I read it before applying and you could see a lot of scenarios where IF things are opened back up in july that many could* come out on top...And some other speculative scenario I thought up like these guys...https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arcadia-returns-ex/exclusive-wall-street-firm-dangled-up-to-175-returns-to-investors-using-us-aid-programs-idUSKCN21R1DV

I agree with that. Follow the protocol until we can see a little clearer, early indications are we can certainly be strategic and beat this. We all are good at juggling, this is just a new ball.

Dewine has done a good job, bought some short term time. There is not a solution outside of keeping this deferral at bay vs the reality which is we can not essentially think this is solved by a certain date by staying put. The likely hood is similar amounts of people die maybe a little more maybe a little less (although some of this distancing now is potentially harmful by some expert calculations), they just don't pull that date far enough out as to not completely overwhelm people over a surge number that *potentially is not a high. Models are always wrong by there nature of assumptions with action, they are designed this way to some extent, just close, but how close... You can not return to 100% normal, as in life before Covid-19, with out a global vaccine. If we believe we can shelter until May 1st, reality seems to make us reconsider that thought for 11 more months in a good case scenario upon delivery of a vaccine. Otherwise we can not live in fear and must live in reality. Fauci is telling us this weekend that this potentially goes for a year...6.6 million unemployed turns into 60 million pretty fast, and that is a different rabbit hole. Clay, the #winning hashtag while a dig at Trump, this has never been done in modern times to shut down and entire country which is what the doctors asked him to do...Tail effects are wide ranging and massive. Yes the date of lock down can be called into question, but not outcome which is out of his and the governments control IMO. This doesn't preclude him from criticism, but blaming him for the unemployment number which is a no brainer when you say, yeah close it all down...Duh. This is also where you have to balance having the country led by multiple experts and not just a doctor in a certain data set, its essentially the American project (I am not implying the information Fauci, Brix is bad, just we typically balance many experts in many fields to direct policy. Certainly not Trumps strong suit either). It sucks, but this isn't a lives vs money argument, its a lives vs lives, there has to be a strategy to allow movement and herd immunity. This is a population control bug, sadly. It loves the co-morbidity's and the weaker older populous, and our health care system for all the criticism has otherwise done a phenomenal job of keeping these at risk people alive for much longer with better quality off life, however this scernario exposures the chinks in that armor, just life. Serological testing hopefully solves the void in data they need to feel comfortable to send the herd back out. It needs to get moving and moving soon.

If the exposure risk is low and follows cdc guidance (the way I see it); then why is that irresponsible. Your risk of contraction is higher getting groceries/essentials...That to me is virtue thinking. Most courses are not allowing carts, club houses are closed, online tee times only scheduled with a starter, and you just have to walk and or carry. They are putting in good safe protocols to help people enjoy something. The Four some at most can all easily stay 6 feet apart, and no flags are pulled, cups are shallower for contact to the cup ect. The mental health benefit for many of these golfers is big, keeping people from pure outright depression lock out is important. Seeing the traffic on hoover the other day you'd be better shutting down paths ect...but you can never have everyone agree

85% of the worlds antibiotics come from china and the lombardy region in Italy, you cant make this shit up. Which the way I have understood it is all but guaranteed to get and infection during ventilation and making these meds mandatory essentially and not having access. Yikes

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/pence-task-force-coronavirus-aid-157806 In summary, it appears we are sending loads of PPE to other countries when we have a shortage here, in hopes that down the line, these countries can make PPE for us when a second wave hits... Seems like a flawed strategy that we are into IMO, but I hope I am wrong. If you read the article they are showing no difference in 2 weeks to 2 months, none, but the collateral damage is potentially far greater. Offering some buffer to scramble is important, clinical ect. Brix and Fauci are both adamant that these trials while great they are happening rapidly are ad minimum a year away...You simply cant do this for a year. You can not. To me I would argue get as prepared (seems to be happening//who says we did it the best?) as you can, we are mostly there, get the serological test out asap to control the asymptomatic and immune reentry and affect the transmission rates, and get people back at it, build the herd, shelter the weak, put in place mild distancing measures and get things going back to normal. The out come as it is understood is not changing thats what this is saying just delaying the suffering and has a high potential to be worse waiting. The sliver of hope for a miracle drug repurposed on a unheard of timeline is a nice thought to advocate for the delay tactic (and I would love that) but it has a 6-10 trillion dollar cost maybe larger and maybe more life lost then just letting this proceed in short fashion with the short term extreme controls and then longer term moderate measures. I hope things change.

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b I wonder when the reality will set in that this will never be a manageable load thru mitigation as it stands. It is just a mechanism to buy time (not arguing that is not bad for a short timeline) and frankly you can not, will not be able to do so for a year or longer which is what is needed for a vaccine, therapeutic....There are models (among models and models and assumptions and assumptions) showing that once May 1st hits this thing spikes in the same method it was originally going to and all we keep doing is delaying the spike, not preventing it, doing nothing to the total number of cases/deaths, and barely putting a dent in manageable load. In fact this strategy "could" be worse if evidence by the Spanish flu with not allowing more social gathering (irony) and the weather (uv radiation ect) to help combat/allow herd immunity. "two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations" ... "Unfortunately, extreme mitigation efforts which end (even gradually) reduce the number of deaths only by 1% or so; as the mitigation efforts let up, we still see a full-scale epidemic, since almost none of the population has developed immunity to the virus." ... Buying time is good at this point, but some measure of reality needs to bestowed upon us these dates are false hopes. Lets hope the rate changes, I am not sure how that happens under this guideline but am certain smarter people then me are working towards that.

Sorry my intent was not to direct that comment at your response at all. Moreover that virtue signaling/ or self righteous is rampant as and observation I have been seeing in general.

Compound growth, yes get it. I am not stating that is is overblown I believe the necessary steps are being taken at this moment, as not to say that can change either direction. Being optimistic is not a crime, the self righteous statements blow me away and the need to spiteful, desire to feel validated with the "I told you so" idiocy it more depressing then the virus. But thats culture today. Taking away some limbic functioning and enlisting pre frontal cortex and this problem looks different especially with proper anti body testing protocols and quality data (all not easy tasks). Thats my take away. I am curious to understand the true scope of this which is likely much greater then our comprehension as it stands currently. It would be very interesting to know that the mortality rate is lower, the contraction rate is higher, along with higher levels of immunity; which doesn't change the fact the system is still overwhelmed sadly I get that. We will likely never know saturation data at this point in time, or points in time to justify policies and actions taken. This information is interesting from the princess cruise ship in a hyper infectious environment micro study. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-asymptomatic-tests/index.html?fbclid=IwAR1WRanLFKGUr6O7qGjd2I66qeFlU8NWgxoU7DxvKs_VUfgiN-yw00V1ioE I do feel life is greater then economics, hopefully everyone makes it thru this.

Along those lines, reports from two docs I talk with regularly at Ohio Health / riverside is they operate around 800-900 beds on a regular basis, and are running around 300 right now. Due to non electives and shelter in place aka stay away if at all possible. They are sending doc's and Nurses home to help save labor costs currently as they wait for the barrage which is told to be coming. The hospital systems in Ohio also are standing to loose 30 billion due to this, taking local small hospital systems to the brink solvency. Ohio Health no, they have 480 days of burn rate ready to go, Fairfield and your rural hospitals avg just 90 days. Just to draw some relation to the economic impacts, in and even essential environment. Yes this some 1st hand intel with some off the cuff banter, and it could/ probably will change with time to and overwhelmed system. But it sounds like the prep level is decent considering a lack of precedence. We just really cant get the anti body test fast enough. (HSIC is claiming to have it) It will paint the clearest picture of where the country stands and how we can move forward; the current testing protocols and data set really are poor examples of the large picture, which is why so many models are being updated and thankfully downgraded on severity. My personal opinion (from reading a large amount none professional aka meaningless) is this virus has penetrated 4x 5x the amount of cases we know about like Dr. Acton mentioned claiming around 100,000 Ohio-ians 'likely' have had or have the virus. It sounds to me the Fed is thinking about a potential strategy to release restrictions on areas where say 20% or a determined amount of the localized area is tested then crosses a threshold for herd immunity which allows the hospitals to stay under capacity and operating. Thus allowing the work force to get back to it with relative normalcy. I believe they are going to district these mandates and shrink the scope of restrictions to much more tightly managed areas and try to juggle this virus as it crops up in areas vs broad casted nets. Just a hunch, at-least until the magic bullets Trump thinks exist, actually exist.

It will never be 39k ... Ask model 3 owners haha But it will push the market along. Still would much prefer another format other then BEV...EV sure, but BEV just doesnt excite me in the least; feels like a cd and walkmens are about to hit the market.

sounds dumb... but check bikeflights.com

Got around to (mostly) finishing the patio a while ago. Built the paver walls and columns. Never did paver work really, but it was not too bad, cutting each stone on a curve is a semi pain but it turned out nice enough. I have the hardscape and wall lights to install, just not much time recently; all the wiring is run ready to go. I also have to finish the Built in grill station...Another weekend some time. All the kids are over all the time so don't mind the stuff. dice animation Made the table as well out of cedar. Wife wanted a thanksgiving sized table for all the feasts we (don't) have...But its nice, will put a light stain on it once it finishes breathing.