mmrmnhrm
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Everything posted by mmrmnhrm
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Global auto market may "collapse" in 2009: J.D.Power
mmrmnhrm replied to copperhead's topic in Passing Lane
+1 for you as well. That pretty much sums up what's wrong with GM... Too many product lines. -
Cameron > Summer Glau Other hotties appearing in Firefly.... Morena Baccarin (did a stint on Stargate SG-1) Jewel Staite (regular on Stargate Atlantis)
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I would, except I'm in clutter reduction mode myself. $250 is a very fair price for what you're offering, though.
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I started to fall asleep, so I flipped over to my DVR of last night's Terminator. Did I miss anything?
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Huh? Do you understand what an ETF is?
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Growth does not necessarily require debt or leverage. Buffalo Wild Wings has been growing quite deliciously using operating cash flow. Yes, correct usage of debt makes growth much easier, but it's not an absolute requirement. Yes, I do borrow short term, but it's because: 1- It's safer to use a credit card than to use a debit card 2- BofA gives me anywhere between 1-5% back on purchases 3- JPMChase pays absolute shit for interest on checking accounts 4- It's a lot easier to write one check/month for all my trips to Chipotle, CVS, Krogers, etc, than to do it nickle/dime fashion As I said, it's paid in full every month. Cutting my cards up, sticking them in the freezer, or otherwise removing them would be an annoyance since I'd have to carry a higher balance in my checking account (and suffer the indignities of 0.05% interest), but except for the possibility of large expenditures (car repairs, in particular), it would not be a game-changer. Likewise, any company larger than just a handful of locations *should* be able to grow organically, without the use of commercial paper. Is it a pain? Yes, but it's also a nice, big, "BUY MY STOCK" sign when they're able to do this (see aforementioned B'Dubs, though they were a little too rich when I looked a few days ago).
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Certainly a possibility, but one which assumes that earnings will remain somewhat constant. Companies in the "consumer non-durable" category (food and OTC drug companies like Kraft and Johnson&Johnson) should be able to maintain or even improve their earnings. Others (Citigroup, JPMorgan, General Motors) not so much. As earnings go down, the P/E ratio goes up, meaning further price reductions are required to hit that magical 5. Actually, I'd be willing to bet many folks not on some sort of promotional rate are in the 20-30% interest range, even those with flawless payment records and 750+ FICO scores. I'm one of 'em (I even called and asked why maybe two years ago... the CSR's response? "We've never made a penny off you."). So you start with people deep in debt who can't afford to borrow more and banks unwilling to lend to all but the most worthy, but in many cases, those who are worthy don't care to borrow anyways. So it's really from three directions that the so-called "velocity of money" (what Paulson and Bernanke euphemistically call "liquidity") is being attacked, not just the two you mentioned.
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The rules have changed, but I also would prefer us not to drop below the 8000 I mentioned earlier I'm curious... looking over the chart, I do not see a resistance/support structure at 8500. I do see it at 10000 (tomorrow's action will be important), then 9500, 9000, 8000, and 7500. Curiously, there does not appear to be a "catch your breath" at 8500, though this is likely because the upwards tick was the leading edge of the dot-com bubble, while the downwards was part of a pennant at 8300ish that broke to the upside. Though to be perfectly honest, I don't put a whole lot of faith in charting. They're good for identifying trends, but they don't tell you much about absolutes.
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On a pure numbers basis, I do not expect to see sub-1000, nor do I expect that we'll return to 2000 (1987). I believe there are enough dollars sloshing around in 401k funds to form an absolute floor somewhere around 3000-3500. However, you also need to account for inflation. A 2008 dollar ($1.00) is worth much less than 1929 ($12.49), and about a third of 1979 ($2.94).
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I've seen a couple of people say this, so to hopefully educate... The stock market and the economy as a whole are NOT directly linked. The "market" is a foward-looking mechanism in which people attempt to find a fair value for a company, based on aspects like recurring revenues, debt load, and physical assets, then mash all that up with some *guesses* about things like growth prospects and whether or not their R&D will pan out, to arrive at what you think a fair value for that company is. If the stock is below that price, you buy, and if it's above, you sell. Look at the bottom of every prospectus, and you'll see something to the effect of "Past performance is no guarantee of future returns." Quite simply, just because Company A has grown at 20% annually for the past fifty years, there's nothing to say they won't fall flat on their face next year. What we have now are a LOT of smart people changing their future growth/revenue/etc *guesses* negatively, and deciding that that particular stock is overpriced. This sudden glut of supply causes prices to drop, which then makes less reasoned people panic and sell because they don't really understand why they bought in the first place. Their purchase was based on myths like "Stocks always go up," or "My broker will tell me when to get out," and now they're afraid of losing everything, so they rush for the exits like rats off a sinking ship. I've seen a couple other people quote Buffett already (be greedy when others are fearful....), so I know there are at least a few people out there who at least have an idea what they're doing. They can probably ignore me. The rest of ya's, get to learning before you get back into the market. There's a lot of money to be made, yes, but for every winner, there's also a loser. You do not want to be that loser.
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This is likely, but do not confuse a rally with a recovery. There's a LOT of pain yet to come. I'm being optimistic at 8000, realistic at 6000, and if we start having real bank runs and public defaults, 4000 within reach. Buffett called derivatives "Weapons of Financial Mass Destruction," and that's what we have going off right now. If you've never talked with your grandparents about what was like in the Depression, now would be a good time. Ask about families and neighbors pooling and working together, scraping by, swapping clothes, turning lawns into gardens. If you've missed your chance, read and learn. Prepare. If you're in debt, get out. Student debt. Credit card debt. Auto loan debt. If you owe someone money, pay it back quickly. Read over your mortgage carefully. If there's any hint that your payments might rise, look into converting or refinancing. You do NOT want surprises.
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Feeling optimistic today, are we?
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Yes, there should be a space below the candidates for "write-in" people.
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Just be sure that what you're picking up isn't still smouldering. Lotta smart people getting burned thinking they're getting a bargain, only to find out that there's still more damage to come.
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Tell that to MLK.
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Yeah, well, chalk me up for fail. Now that I see this subforum, I found that Mudcrutch linked the same floor speech, just from a different account.
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Actually, one did. He's well known 'round these parts, too. I even voted for him this spring.
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Ahh, didn't see we separated politics from the kitchen proper. My bad.
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He takes the entire House to school!
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Akuma: It had been lifted about this time last year, but was reactivated in June or July.
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Emerson (Liebert) has a hiring freeze on right now. Maybe one or two field-tech positions posted for out-of-Ohio locations, but that's it.
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The man speaks truth.