GFS, which is updating right now. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp06GFSLoop.html
The thing is, this entire winter models have indicated a storm usually a week-10 days out. then slowly by the time it gets to crunch time the models slowly show it fading away. so, by saying that: the models not showing a storm around vday means theres a 60% chance of the opposite happening.