I bought some at 15.xx earlier in the year and sold around 20. I'm not sure it will get that low again, so I will probably try to buy in the $16.xx range. As far as the risk, oil can be a "no brainer" purchase here, but you need to have time on your side. I am planning on buying what I feel comfortable keeping for a while and history tells me I will have an opportunity in the next 2-3 years or less to sell it for at least double. I may sell sooner depending on profits I see and other opportunities, but with this play time is your friend.