greg1647545532

Thats good to hear - I live in Nashville, so I dont see DeWines briefings unless it hits CNN/Fox or some major news source.

Ah, copy. It's on YouTube but I've taken to reading the summaries on r/Ohio. I think it was last Wednesday there were a bunch of protesters outside wherever they're doing these daily briefings, I guess all upset about the government tyranny here and demanding the lockdown be lifted. IIRC DeWine didn't attack them directly but did address some of the growing dissent.

The tough thing is we're flying blind at the moment, the models say we've peaked or will peak soon but you don't know when you've peaked until it's in the past and you can look back and say "Yup, 2 weeks ago we peaked." The models say Ohio is going to peak earlier than other states, and so it's not even our peak we need to be worried about -- opening up travel when Kentucky and Indiana are exploding in cases is problematic. So their message for right now is basically, "We have an exit strategy, we're constantly revising it, we need tests in order to execute the exit strategy and we're still working on procuring them, but at the moment and until 1 May y'all just need to relax and keep doing what you're doing.

That's the cliffs notes version at least.

Do you watch any of DeWine's daily conferences? You're not suggesting anything that they haven't already discussed at great length. Right now one of the big limfacs is testing -- there just aren't enough tests, antibody or otherwise, to do contact tracing and/or to figure out who's "probably immune" and can go back to work. The federal government really could have gotten ahead of the curve here on producing tests but they didn't.

Anyways, yes, plans to "reopen" are on paper, and people are having conversations about it, and here in Ohio they're even keeping us citizens briefed on some of those details.

2 different people I know have lost a parent to it just this week. Nasty stuff.

Are you sure they haven't just bought into the media panic? Maybe their parents are alive and they're just overreacting.

(sorry for their respective losses, I don't mean to make light)

The gubmint is flying a plane that's still being built.

:lol:

I completely understand what they want to do by flattening the curve to buy time to prepare for the peak and work on possible treatments. And I agree with a lot of what they are doing to slow the spread. Also, as a small business owner, I believe I have a decent understanding of the economic impact and concerns of many people and hope you can understand the economic concerns that some may have.

 

Due to the nature of our service business, the quarantine has brought our company's income down to almost zero. Not only do I have concerns for my ability to take care of my family and pay my bills, but I also have legitimate concerns for every single one of our people trying to provide for their families. It's my job to find them work, and it's almost impossible to do that right now. Since this has hit, we've tried going into different markets, tried offering our services to "essential" businesses, etc. We are also experimenting with how to conduct our business in completely different ways. For anything even close to what we normally do, there is NO WORK right now. NONE.

 

We have no idea how long this will last. Given the nature of our business, even after the "all clear" is given (whenever that is), it might still be several months or longer until we can start doing our work again.

 

Also, this is a business that has taken us over 20 years to build from nothing to get to the point we were before COVID hit. We have over 20 years of personal and financial sacrifices, blood, sweat, and tears to turn it into something that can provide for the dozens of our workers' families. Again, we are a small service business. Thankfully, we have saved up our own reserves and the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) is in place. I can tell you the PPP alone would not be enough for our business to survive for the length that this will impact us. We are fortunate to have money saved up. We'll be able to provide 100% of our people's salaries for months to come, even without PPP. Again, the biggest thing is we do not know WHEN our specific industry will be able to start up again. We will definitely take longer than most.

 

Also, as far as unemployment and things like the PPP, we WILL have to pay that all back as tax payers at some point. It's much needed at this point and will keep many people afloat and prevent some possibly much bigger social issues that might occur when millions of people are actually starving and such. But we will be paying that back as tax payers later on, which will also impact the economy down the road.

 

Again, I'm not on anyone's "side" here. The fact is that both the medical and economic concerns are very real and very valid. This pandemic could have been much worse, I'm glad precautions were taken. Also, at some point, we are going to have to phase more people back into the work force. The global economy will be severely impacted by this and there will be a ripple effect into almost every corner of the global economy. Some businesses and jobs WILL be lost. The longer this goes on, the more businesses and jobs will be lost. At some point, the decisions made WILL be a balancing act between the economy, jobs, businesses, and lives. It's just the hand we've been dealt as a society and the people in charge will have to make those tough choices at some point.

Well said. I'm not watching the daily updates live anymore but just following along with the real-time updates that u/PeaceIsSoftcoreWar has been posting on reddit. Seems like the governor directly addressed some of the concerns that have popped up in this thread in the last couple of days. These are not exacts quotes but paraphrased (from that link):

There's a lot of discussion right now throughout the country about models and estimates. When changes happen we let you know. That means that we give out information as we get it. That can lead to changes in estimates that may appear to come out of nowhere. The models and estimates changed because of what you were willing to do in order to protect each other. Our modelers did not expect that Ohioans would comply with our orders as well as they did. Their model was built on a compliance level that was lower than the actual value. Even if our estimates change, people are still dying and we need to understand just how terrible that is for everyone who knew them. That is why we have to keep protecting each other.

 

Our team is working very hard to figure out how to get back to normal. It's not going to be like flipping a switch. It's also still a work in progress. We'll tell you what we have in the coming week. We're working just as hard to come back as we were coming in.

 

Every morning, I get the new numbers for our state. The deaths are terrible but they are a lagging indicator. Hospitalizations, while lagging as well, are very important. We do a five day average to see how large of a change is occurring. Right now they are still going up but we are very optimistic at this point.

I have full faith that DeWine is doing everything he can to balance the needs of the medical community and those currently out of work. I think we just need to give his team time to see how the next week or so shakes out.

It's funny, a week ago I asked my wife if she'd vote for DeWine after all this (I consider myself a left-leaning libertarian, she's a tree-hugging liberal). She said, "Well, it depends on who he's running against," and I agreed. Every day that goes by is solidifying my support for him. He really is sticking by his principles through all of this.

This "crisis" makes the third one that really effected me, Dot Com, Housing bubble, and now the coronavirus.

Damn, I didn't realize the stripper inspecting industry was so volatile. :)

I think there is so much pressure to get the economy going again that people are willing to find a reason to look the other way.

I think some of the non-DeWine red states are going to start rolling things back, it'll be interesting to see if there's a resurgence or if voluntary measures will suffice.

I'm sure people have seen this out of Kansas:

On Wednesday, the Legislative Coordinating Council voted 5-2 to overturn Gov. Laura Kelly's newest executive order that specifically restricted the size of religious gatherings to 10 or less - citing a reason that the governor's orders likely violated the state constitution.

They "touted" the official white house estimate? And that was wrong of them?

What else did you want them to do, not report what the white house was saying?

Please just keep in mind a few things:

1) The death toll if we did nothing was predicted to be 1.5 million. Preventing a 50% increase in our annual death toll was certainly worth shutting down for, and even if that doesn't rustle your jimmies for the sake of not watching people die, it should rustle your jimmies because 1.5 million extra people dying would have been pretty bad for the economy as well.

2) The epidemiologists said at the beginning that if we do a good job it will look like we overreacted. Keep in mind point (1) above. Also keep in mind that we don't have to wonder what it would have looked like if we'd done less, all we have to do is look across the pond to Italy and Spain. That's also what could happen if we go back to normal too soon.

3) We're not at the peak of even the updated models, which should arrive in various states between now and the end of the month (Ohio sooner than others, thankfully). PPE supplies are running low here in Ohio and we're in a good spot compared to a lot of places. We are not out of the woods yet. Let's just keep our dick in our pants for a couple more weeks and see how things go.

Maybe when the economic costs come crashing down people will remember some assclown claiming this was all a democratic hoax. It's sad that people who had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the reality of 1.5 million dead have, in a matter of 3 weeks, after actual adults listened to actual experts and turned 1.5 million into a "mere" 100,000, forgotten why we had to do this in the first place.

Let's just keep things nice and slow, is all I'm saying. Listen to the experts.

I don't think lots of people dying is inevitable; with ample testing, targeted quarantines, and some smart changes to the way we do things, we can keep it at bay. I do not understand this sudden push for everyone to suck it up, get sick, and get back to work. There is room for middle ground if we listen to the experts and make smart decisions about how and when we begin to relax our containment measures.

I mean, this virus is like 6 months old, we've barely studied it; we don't know if it's going to mutate, we don't know if getting sick once means a lifetime immunity.... we need more data. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I thought this was interesting.

The model makes some key assumptions about how state leaders will act — and depending on what they do, the picture could change. First, it assumes that all states will continue social distancing through the end of May — which is longer than the White House has asked Americans to practice social distancing.

This is the model that looks very good for Ohio now. So that gives us a clue as to what the decision makers might be looking at.

Daily case rate holding flat, hospitalizations/deaths slightly up but the updated models are now showing a big improvement, under 600 deaths projected by IMHE. Fantastic news if it holds.

(For Ohio)

Do we honestly believe we will be going back to our offices by May 1st? Or do we think we will be under lock down for longer?

My personal guess is that the stay-at-home order will be lifted before Memorial Day, possibly May 1st but that all depends on what the next 2 weeks look like. However, DeWine will instruct businesses to only allow non-essential employees back to work if they're unable to do their jobs from home. There will be guidelines for all businesses about how to open back up while maintaining a clean environment.

Public gatherings, however, will be banned through the summer. Schools won't reopen until fall.

Nothing will go back to normal for a while; the covid19 death toll will start to tick back up and it will be a game of managing hospital capacity vs economic stagnation.

Even healthy people who get it say it SUCKS as an illness, like a flu on steroids, so any notion that we all just need to catch it and move on with our lives will start falling apart once a bunch of us have lived through the misery. I imagine next winter, barring a vaccine, we'll all know someone personally who needed to be hospitalized, and that's going to be terrifying for a lot of people. My wife has asthma and while the mortality rate for a 40 year old with asthma isn't terrible, I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up in a hospital for observation if she catches it, so we're obviously going to do everything we can to keep it out of the house.

Yep. Total Cases in Ohio based on https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards

It's worth noting that Ohio is backdating their numbers on that site, you'll notice everything from 3/25 onward is marked with (*Preliminary). Those numbers will go up as they get test confirmation and data coming in. The difference isn't insubstantial, e.g. on 3/28 they announced 1406 known cases, that number is now up to 3152 as you note.

Numbers as they were announced on day of:

March 27: 1,137

March 28: 1,406 +269

March 29: 1,653 +247

March 30: 1,933 +280

March 31: 2,199 +266

April 1: 2,547 +348

April 2: 2,902 +355

April 3: 3,312 +410

April 4: 3,739 +427

April 5: 4,043 +304

April 6: 4,450 +407

The rate of increase does appear to be leveling off, which is a good sign that our measures are working, but we also need to be mindful that hospitalizations will lag behind -- Boris Johnson was diagnosed 10 days before he was admitted, for example -- and deaths will of course lag behind hospitalizations.

oddball discussion topic. Is social distancing constitutionaly legal vs the right to protest as a group?

Read up on strict scrutiny. I don't know the answer but that's the standard a legal challenge would have to survive.

Dewine has done a fair job, bought some short term time. There is not a solution outside of keeping this deferral at bay vs the reality which is you can not essentially think this is solved by a magic date by staying put. The likely hood is similar amounts of people die maybe a little more maybe a little less (although some of this distancing now is potentially harmful by many calculations), they just don't pull that date far enough out as to not completely freak people out over a surge number that *potentially is not a high. Models are always wrong by there nature of assumptions with action, they are designed this way to some extent, just close, but how close... You can not return to 100% normal, as in life before this existed with out a global vaccine, so those of you whom believe you can shelter until May 1st, you should reconsider that thought for 11 more months in a good case otherwise do not live in fear and live in reality.

Fair point. The model levels off but it says nothing about what happens after that. DeWine's obviously not committing to anything past 1 May and he's got access to a lot better models than we do. It seems likely at this point that at some point in May or June the restrictions will slowly be lifted -- as they are, we'll see an uptick in cases at each step of the way, and at that point it will be a game of balancing social distancing measures against hospital capacity. They're saying that 60 to 70 percent of us will eventually get it and nobody knows if that's this year, next few years, or just a new normal for the rest of our lives until there's a vaccine. All we know for now is that it's very important to weather the next month.