greg1647545532

So I've been keeping track of Ohio's numbers for the past few days, and our state does seem to be "flattening the curve":

 

4043 on 4/5

3739 on 4/4

3312 on 4/3

2904 on 4/2

2400 on 4/1

 

I need to do some more research and see what I can find for the days prior to 4/1.

 

Weekend numbers were a bit low last week and jump up by Monday/Tuesday but otherwise I agree, it does seem that DeWine's swift and strict actions have made an impact compared to nearby states.

Imo we have to eventually open up and just deal with it. We aren't going to stay "flat" or dropping and the virus isn't going anywhere.

 

Why we in ohio continue to tighten restrictions when we aren't hearing about system overloads is confusing.

 

It amazes me that otherwise intelligent people who have no problem managing their own 401ks can't look at a trend line and figure out the obvious conclusions. This website has been making the rounds, it's one of the models Ohio is using to make decisions. It does predict a flattening off of new cases and deaths, based on our current policies, with the "light at the end of the tunnel" being around mid-May, May 15th-ish. At that point nearly 2000 Ohioans will have died.

 

No big deal, right? That's only 2/3 of a 9/11. Except we know that for every death we have about 10 hospitalizations. That's 20,000 hospital beds, and upthread someone bragged that we should have 9,500 free at any given moment (which I doubt is true, sadly). 9,500 minus 20,000 means 10,500 getting sent home to die, or being treated in makeshift hospitals. If we can't save those 10,500 people that's like, three 9/11s!

 

We're just at the beginning of a big ramp up, meaning the virus is just starting to hit critical mass. According to that model, those 9,500 empty beds that we may or may not have will be completely filled up on April 19th, 2 weeks from today. The two weeks after that are going to be an absolute shitshow. So let's just do what we're doing for another month, we can manage that in the greatest country on Earth, don't you think?

 

I wish the media and what not would stop talking about these numbers and instead work harder on what we are doing progress wise to get treatments out there so we can begin dropping the number of deaths. We don't need to be at a rate of zero to open up.

 

In terms of Covid-19 information I'm getting everything from DeWine/Acton and the WH task force. They talk numbers a lot because it's a concrete way to make people realize the gravity of the next month, which might just scare people into not being morons. If we're talking shark attacks or immigrant crime I'll be right there with you blaming the media for blowing shit way out of proportion, but in this case all they're doing is reporting on what's being said by our (Republican) elected leaders and their respective teams. Journalists are not qualified to develop medical treatments so I'm not sure what else you want them to do.

Right about $500, anything touching soil is pressure treated, what little bit isn't touching soil is untreated. That includes some mulch and pavers for the walkways. I'm sure it could be done for cheaper, if I'd have known it was going to add up to that much I would have thought about it a bit more, there's probably room for some cheap decking somewhere. I built each long side and situated it in place then connected the short sides to box it in, those long sides were heavy and I hated every minute of moving them around.

 

I put semi-permeable weed blocker stuff down under the whole thing, with 18" of dirt I'm not sure that's going to matter for the garden boxes but it should help with the walkways.

 

I'll get some pictures of my "plans" and get back to your PM tomorrow.

Nice!

Story about a small hospital in GA, I was actually born in Albany, GA so I found it interesting. Georgia has slightly fewer people than Ohio but currently has twice the cases and 2.5 times the deaths so far. They're gonna get hammered.

How are you gonna force companies to manufacture stuff in the US? Sounds like socialism to me.

 

Republicans calling to nationalize the medical supply industry, never thought I'd live to see the day. :)

Great, now I have a 90 minute video to procrastinate to today

 

Looks like Rust Bullet or similar. I've used it a bunch on rusty suspension parts and whatnot, it's amazing stuff.

I can pinpoint the exact moment it became real for me, March 12th -- I posted in this thread a link to the NYT map of known cases. Up until that point, while I was watching events unfold on the world stage with the sort of morbid curiosity I have for these things, I think I felt that it would remain "someone else's problem" -- Italy, Iran, China. Every other epidemic I've lived through that's made it to America had been contained after a few local outbreaks, and I guess while I was concerned, and I was angry that Trump was being a moron about it, I thought that public health professionals on the ground in Seattle would handle it. Or at least I wasn't seriously considering the possibility that they wouldn't.

 

March 11th WHO declared it a pandemic, and then March 12th I look at that map and realized it was already in every major US city. That's the moment I realized the federal response had utterly failed, it was not a Seattle problem, or a NYC problem, it was just a matter of weeks or months before we were all going to be Italy.

 

I think people are still looking at the NY/Jersey case numbers and thinking that this is still "someone else's problem." My sister lives in Jackson and the sense there is that this is a "big city problem."

 

I had a glimmer of hope yesterday after several days of good numbers, but when the final Tuesday numbers were in they were right back on the exponential curve. 750 dead Americans yesterday. Gonna be 8, 900 today. And then over a thousand a day for a while until we get up to the numbers that the Trump administration is now talking about. I saw video yesterday of body bags stacked up in the maternity ward of a NYC hospital. Dozens and dozens of bodies. It's just so surreal, it's a natural disaster that's going to hit 100 times.

 

My parents are 70 and in good health, not overweight, and they're taking good precautions. My grandmother is 91 and will most likely die from this if it gets into her facility. I haven't seen her since December, and at her age and condition there's already a good chance I won't see her again just because of the lockdown, even if she dies from something else. But we've been preparing for this for a couple of years now, so while it's a bummer to think about, it is what it is. My in-laws, on the other hand, are being complete dumbasses. They're both in their late 60s, overweight, with literally every co-morbidity factor on the list, and they're still working at their completely non-essential job every day. Guarantee my father-in-law thinks this is all just liberal bullshit.

 

Anyway, that's my debbie downer post of the day. On the upside, my kids are doing great with this distance learning thing. I'm really proud of all 3 of them, going off to school in their rooms while my wife and I go off to work.

This is awful.

 

The captain of the San Diego-based aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, in port in Guam fighting a coronavirus outbreak among its crew, says that unless the Navy takes immediate action to isolate the crew off the ship, COVID-19 will continue to spread and “there will be losses,” he wrote in a letter sent Sunday to Pacific Fleet commanders.

I just looked at the Ohio numbers...2199 confirmed cases with 55 deaths, this means the death rate in Ohio is 0.025%

So we are doing ok, thank you mr dewine, whom i didn't vote for, but the little guy seems to be doing a very good job.

 

That's actually 2.5%, not 0.025%.

 

I'm not sure what to make of the numbers. Overall the US rate seems to be flattening -- still a bit worse than a true linear progression but getting closer to one. Ohio's infected rate, likewise, seems to be slowing down. Social distancing at work? Maybe. But our hospitalization rate is still increasing exponentially, and today in the conference DeWine said we're only able to do 280 tests per day in state. That's pretty close to the number of new infections we've added over the last few days. I don't know how many tests are getting sent out of state.

 

I'm hopeful.

 

eta: And I gotta say, DeWine has been a goddamn rockstar at these daily briefings. Clear, direct, honest and transparent.

CNN is quietly reporting the death rate is .66%

 

Got a link? I wonder how they're deriving that number. Ohio is at 2% according to the health dept, US is at 1.9%, according to the data on worldometer. That would be fantastic news if it's only .66%, maybe they're including estimated number of untested infected?

 

eta: Found it, from the Lancet based on estimates/models. So not out of line with what we already suspected, but still encouraging.

1st off thank you for your service. 2ndly I never said it was one sided as far as moving forward or that it was your side was to blame in not moving forward. After going down the worm hole again with a shitty post playing the same game as others have on here including yourself, I decided it was time to take a step back and take a different approach.

 

And your different approach is to accuse me of being a partisan? To make this about "sides?"

 

Let me be clear: I am not being partisan, which I can now demonstrate. Mike DeWine is a Republican; I did not vote for him. However, he is doing a GREAT job in this crisis. How? He has put competent people in positions of authority; he has strived to understand what the data and evidence are saying and has made decisions based upon that evidence; he has made tough, unpopular calls that are in the best interest of Ohioans, and he has made those calls in a timely manner; and lastly, he has presented a calm, clear, and CONSISTENT message to Ohio. None of those things are partisan in nature, those are basic elements of leadership. Other than declaring abortion services to be non-essential medical procedures, which aggravates me as a libertarian, I cannot fault his leadership and I am 100% behind the efforts of Mike DeWine, who, again, is a Republican.

 

Donald Trump is also a Republican and his response to this pandemic has been nothing like Mike DeWine's. I won't rehash all the reasons why, as they've been covered, but I assure you that my opinion of Trump's leadership is not based on partisan loyalty, but rather observations of an objective reality and a basic understanding of a few facts. If other Americans are observing a different reality and/or operating under a different set of facts, I honestly don't know how the country is going to "come together as a whole." If you have any ideas, I'm all ears.

gerg. I know i have been guilty of this approach in the past. how can the country as a whole move forward if both sides are stuck in a tit for tat?

 

I like how your knee-jerk reaction to me expressing an opinion about Trump was to tell me, an 18 year usaf veteran, to revoke my own citizenship, but I'm supposed to be the one to figure out how to heal this rift? Fuck if I know, man. Seems unsolvable at this point.

4 people died in Benghazi and we had 13 congressional inquiries looking to uncover any possible lapse in leadership by the Obama administration or the Clinton state department. 200k people are projected to die during a pandemic after Trump explicitly scaled back the federal pandemic response capabilities and we're already getting "pobody's nerfect!" It's surreal.

I don't know about the millions hospitalized, some people will test + , get meds go home and get through it, others with less of an immune system will have to be hospitalized .

 

Do the math backwards, man. For every person who's died so far, more than 10 have been hospitalized. 200k dead, which is now the "official" white house guestimate, means more than 2 million Americans will need to be hospitalized. This is now the best case scenario according to Trump's personal task force.

 

The only way it won't be millions is if the hospitals fill up and start turning people away to die at home.

So 200k dead Americans "if we do everything perfectly," according to the white house task force. That's tough to swallow. That's going to mean millions hospitalized.

Anyone disinfect your cars yet? Are you doing anything different to keep it virus-free?

 

I'm only going out for groceries and carryout, I operate as though my car is infected and I decontaminate when I get inside. Wipe down doorknobs and exterior packaging.

Dude, I'm sorry but its just not to that level. There are 1100 cases in Ohio, worst case hospitalization rate is about 15%, thats 165 beds. The American Hospital Directory says theres over 27000 beds in Ohio, and average about 65% full, that leaves 9,445 beds. Then you have to account for all the people that will be discharged in that time before the new cases come in.

Franklin county specifically there's been 61 cases and 9 hospitalizations. Calm down

 

Exponential growth is a bitch. 10 days ago we had 67 cases, now we're adding hundreds every day. The models say we'll be adding thousands of cases per day very soon, and Dr Acton says it's possible that the peak could be 10k new cases per day. With a 15% hospitalization rate those empty beds are not going to stay empty for long.

 

We can revisit this post in 2 weeks but I'm not saying anything the governor isn't saying.

March 20: +6

March 21: +19

March 22: +25

March 23: +21

March 24: +41

March 25: +37

March 26: +41

 

 

March 27: +53

no different then driving to a store to pick up wood/supplies and building a plant garden.

 

Yeah a lot's changed since I picked up all that stuff. Kids were still in school I think.

I read that as the Homeowner(s) were doing it.

 

YMMV

 

KillJoy

 

Pretty sure he was talking about pros doing it.

Since I'm now seeing FB idiots disregarding any future increase in the number of cases because "testing is more available" (is it? I'm not sure that's even true), here's hospitalizations for the last week:

 

March 20: +6

March 21: +19

March 22: +25

March 23: +21

March 24: +41

March 25: +37

March 26: +41

 

Anyone want to play the guessing game for today's number? The average hospital stay is something like 8 days so all of those people are likely still taking up a bed. This is statewide but how many empty beds were there before this all started. Hundreds?

How is this different than taking a walk, bike ride, or rollerblading?

 

KillJoy

 

Gotta go into the office, pick up the truck, fill it with chemicals, get gas, possibly interact with clients... it's not like licking railings in a hospital but it's still potential exposure. Is it necessary exposure? No.

I learned yesterday that spreading fertilizer on the lawns around our neighborhood is "essential" ....

 

Wow.

 

It is absolutely aggravating how so many people continue not to take this seriously. We're like 10 days away from our (Columbus) hospitals being war zones and we're still fighting this perception that it's "just another flu" or a "media scare" and we'll all be back to normal by Easter.

USA #1 (in coronavirus cases).