North Korea

[Bad324]

Hahahaha perfect!!! a

[madcat6183]

I think the US should mind its fucking business and stop pissing away tax dollar money.

Who are we to tell someone their government is fucked? Look at the shit situation we have allowed to happen here

Wait, what situation? I thought everything was fine and dandy here in the US and that's why we just keep spending money on other countries.

[Scruit]

I think the US should mind its fucking business and stop pissing away tax dollar money.

Who are we to tell someone their government is fucked? Look at the shit situation we have allowed to happen here

Whose business is it when NK detonates a nuke in SK and Japan?

[Bad324]

Whose business is it when NK detonates a nuke in SK and Japan?

south korea and japan's. I still dont understand why the US feels it has to be the worlds babysitter, if they can't handle themselves then fuck em

[shittygsxr]

south korea and japan's. I still dont understand why the US feels it has to be the worlds babysitter, if they can't handle themselves then fuck em

This! If they aren't concerned about their "safety" then we shouldn't be either. The arrogance of this country is disgusting.

[Uncle Punk]

These two sound like Ron Paul supporters

[InyaAzz]

This country has acted that way for decades. Unfortunately, you can't 'un-stick' your dick in the beehive.

[Bad324]

So I wonder if this is the reason in the last few days I've now seen 6 or 7 Chinooks flying. Though I think the 2 I just saw are the same two I saw this morning

[Cheech]

Read this writeup. It was done about a year ago, but his conclusions can easily be extrapolated out to present-day circumstances. http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/

Seoul proper isn't in immediate danger, since there's no artillery from NK that can reach downtown. Northern Seoul is in range of NK arty, however it's much less populated than Central or Southern Seoul. So the whole "sea of fire" thing, not so much.

Invasion from N to S is damn near impossible. Best Korea has a 1.1M man army according to them, but they have no way of moving that much men and material to their border without exposing them to withering attacks, or across the border without going through any one of 3 natural chokepoints into SK, which the South has had 50 years to fortify and defend. Plus, they would be doing this in thin-skinned vehicles, so they'd be cut down fairly easily.

Anyway, it's all in that link. Bottom line is, this is an intractable situation. SK won't invade because they don't have to, NK won't invade because they would get their asses kicked and it would mean the end of the regime. NK won't attack civilian targets because it would mean the end of their regime. NK MIGHT "test-fire" that Musodan missile they moved to the East Coast just to stick it in the US's eye, but assuming the arc is tracked to be over water only and at no time poses a threat to anyone, that by itself isn't provocative enough to warrant a military response. After that, they really played out their last card, and the only thing left is either Un puts the brakes on like his father did, sits down at the table to hammer out an "agreement" and takes his medicine, or shit or get off the pot, which would result in the end of their regime either by military destruction, or by a coup (it's been reported that there's already been an domestic assassination attempt) and we'll see what the new crazies have in store.

All we need to do is bring the THAAD online in Guam to further secure our interests and provide better tracking (it'll be online in a couple of weeks), and watch it all go down. Personally, I find this really interesting.

[InyaAzz]

^ Pretty much what I believe and stated earlier. The stakes are too high for anyone to strike first. NK will try and make the US blink, while NK sits back and laughs at the trouble it's making the US go through to counter their 'threat'. The missile test will serve two purposes. First, thumbing its nose at the US, and two, maybe get the US to intercept it and claim they were 'attacked' first. If the US decides to intercept it, best believe Russia, Iran and China are watching closely. There is intel to be had whenever US assets are engaged.

I agree...this is all really interesting. I'm really not worried about a nuclear strike or all out war. That's a no-win for everyone. I'm more interested in how this plays out internally in NK, and whether there is really some internal conflict as some defectors and insiders say. Glorious leader can't back down now, it would be a sign of weakness. Will the military go along with a NK first strike? The rationalist in me says No...they aren't eating their own dog food and know that it would be the end of NK as they know it.

[Gump]

What the heck are they mad about? It's like a bunch of punks fronting their gaks or something.

[ReconRat]

Dunno...

Crazy is as crazy does. Never underestimate crazy.

[Cheech]

^ Pretty much what I believe and stated earlier. The stakes are too high for anyone to strike first. NK will try and make the US blink, while NK sits back and laughs at the trouble it's making the US go through to counter their 'threat'. The missile test will serve two purposes. First, thumbing its nose at the US, and two, maybe get the US to intercept it and claim they were 'attacked' first. If the US decides to intercept it, best believe Russia, Iran and China are watching closely. There is intel to be had whenever US assets are engaged.

I agree...this is all really interesting. I'm really not worried about a nuclear strike or all out war. That's a no-win for everyone. I'm more interested in how this plays out internally in NK, and whether there is really some internal conflict as some defectors and insiders say. Glorious leader can't back down now, it would be a sign of weakness. Will the military go along with a NK first strike? The rationalist in me says No...they aren't eating their own dog food and know that it would be the end of NK as they know it.

See that the thing, Best Korea isn't "giving the US any trouble". We're FINALLY, for better or for worse, calling their bluff. I'd like to think that Kim Jong the Middle would launch the missile into the sea, then hit the brakes, declare victory to his people that the launch caused the imperialist invaders to cower in their holes and call off the invasion, and come to the table to try and get paid for shutting down the plutonium reactor that they're restarting (which they've done in the past) and get paid for not doing any more nuclear or missile tests. The rub, however, is no one knows where Fatty the Third's brakes are on this. The military establishment might be painting him into a corner, or he might not have power fully consolidated at all (I read somewhere that the aunt and uncle of KJI were asked to bring Un up to speed and help him consolidate power, inferring that they had authority behind the scenes)

Again, all we have to do is make sure that our tracking systems are up to date to track any possible missile threats that Aegis and one other one that I can't think of are (THAAD is the third and final piece of that puzzle), and conduct business as usual with SK.

[shittygsxr]

I'm all for minding our business' date=' but NK needs a solid dose of the rest of the globe kicking in its teeth. This isn't Iraq, Afghanistan or some other "oppressed" culture. These are abused, beaten, starved people being treated worse than we treat our fucking food. I would support, 100%, a "boots on the ground" invasion of North Korea.

[url']http://www.npr.org/2012/03/29/149061951/escape-from-camp-14-inside-north-koreas-gulag

Yeah we would fuck that up too. I don't need more family members blown up over this shit

[Cheech]

I'm all for minding our business' date=' but NK needs a solid dose of the rest of the globe kicking in its teeth. This isn't Iraq, Afghanistan or some other "oppressed" culture. These are abused, beaten, starved people being treated worse than we treat our fucking food. I would support, 100%, a "boots on the ground" invasion of North Korea.

[url']http://www.npr.org/2012/03/29/149061951/escape-from-camp-14-inside-north-koreas-gulag

Yeah we would fuck that up too. I don't need more family members blown up over this shit

Both good points. The cost of reunification after the entire NK military complex is obliterated is just incalculable, and will make East and West Germany seem like pennies in comparison. That, and we don't have the best record on this after royally fucking up Afghanistan and Iraq, we would be well served to leave the heavy lifting to the SK's.

[InyaAzz]

See that the thing, Best Korea isn't "giving the US any trouble". We're FINALLY, for better or for worse, calling their bluff. I'd like to think that Kim Jong the Middle would launch the missile into the sea, then hit the brakes, declare victory to his people that the launch caused the imperialist invaders to cower in their holes and call off the invasion, and come to the table to try and get paid for shutting down the plutonium reactor that they're restarting (which they've done in the past) and get paid for not doing any more nuclear or missile tests. The rub, however, is no one knows where Fatty the Third's brakes are on this. The military establishment might be painting him into a corner, or he might not have power fully consolidated at all (I read somewhere that the aunt and uncle of KJI were asked to bring Un up to speed and help him consolidate power, inferring that they had authority behind the scenes)

Again, all we have to do is make sure that our tracking systems are up to date to track any possible missile threats that Aegis and one other one that I can't think of are (THAAD is the third and final piece of that puzzle), and conduct business as usual with SK.

My definition of trouble is having to devote resources to deal with NK's shit. This is diverting time, money and resources away from other pressing matters. NK knows this. China, Russia and Iran know it too.

[HeavyDuty]

[ReconRat]

USA for air assets and recon, China on the ground. If we could get China to agree.

China gets stuck with pacification and South Korea with reunification. USA supplies food and money. A lot of food.

China gains a new best buddy (and strategic mining resources), we get rid of a problem, and Korea gets it's country back.

And after China and the USA do something together, it's game over. No one would ever mess with either of us again, for a long long time.

In the end it's a question of value. North Korea has mineral resources that are of value. So does Afghanistan. Iraq not so much.

[ReconRat]

Wow... talk about a "friendly-fire" nightmare! Do all Asians look the same to other Asians' date=' or is it just us? [/quote']

That would be the reason not to put both on the ground together, unless tightly in a combined unit. Us old farts can tell the difference, but the young pups cannot.

And no, Asians can easily tell the differences between Asians. But all them white guys look the same...

[Gump]

And after China and the USA do something together, it's game over. No one would ever mess with either of us again, for a long long time.

.

Aaahh, I think you're on to something here. Drive a wedge, divide and conquer.

[shittygsxr]

Both good points. The cost of reunification after the entire NK military complex is obliterated is just incalculable, and will make East and West Germany seem like pennies in comparison. That, and we don't have the best record on this after royally fucking up Afghanistan and Iraq, we would be well served to leave the heavy lifting to the SK's.

Add to that list of failures Vietnam and Korea the first time. Oh and Iraq a second time.

[BDBGoalie]

I spent a year there with the Army, so my viewpoint is based on that experience.

In February - April the US and ROK forces conduct drills annually. DPRK whines and bitches every year about it being drills for a war. It all goes away in the middle of April when the DPRK's big holiday happens, or after the exercises are over. It is just routine bantering usually.

This year Um involved threats early, more escalation, nuclear threats, and many more tangible actions. The whole thing is likely a push for Um to solidify himself as a real leader. DPRK's trend has been for the nation to create a crisis so the leader can solve it and build rapport and support from the Army and the people.

They have announced all their military movements, but as someone said before, that is not that uncommon for international diplomacy these days. Sometimes the threat of an action is a deterrent in itself.

The placing of ICBMs (Non-Nuclear) on their coast will likely result in a test firing of a missile. The US will track, and likely intercept it, since we can't be sure what it really is.

Their development of nuclear weapons worries me. Nuclear weapons in the hands of stable nations is semi-tolerable. A cash strapped nation like DPRK having a nuclear weapons is a bad idea. They will sell it to the highest bidder to keep their regime alive, and that bidder will likely be a terrorist group that will actually use it.

Neither Korea really wants a unified country. The ROK is a thriving First-World country that is participating in the international market. They provide good services and care for their civilians. The DPRK is a power hungry communist state that cares only about staying in power whatever the cost. They don't feed their people and tax them at like 50%.

A unified Korea would put millions of DPRK refugees on the ROK's doorstep to take care of. If would cause a significant financial strain on them, as well as the strain on the industry to build up the North. The DPRK doesn't want unification because it puts their communist government out of business and likely exposes lots and lots of war crimes.

The problem with attacking DPRK is how dug in their forces are. Even if we stage a massive aerial onslaught (Which the world will never accept a preemptive strike), their artillery is fortified and zeroed on all hard targets in the first 1/4 of ROK. Even missing one gun could mean 155mm rounds in the middle of Seoul, which has a population density of like 50 million people. The causality count would be catastrophic is a very short period of time, with a majority of it being collateral damage.

China will almost certainly enter the fight if we invade into DPRK territory to protect their buffer state. So that would be bad. But they likely will not support a war effort of the DPRK into the ROK.

Also, if we miss any of the nuclear weapons, the regime will use them in their death throes. Even if the weapon is not fully functional a partial detonation or a dirty bomb explosion will cause lots of damage and death.

So it really has to be the entire military and CnC or nothing at all. Preemptive.

Now if DRPK invades the ROK, they will push hard and fast due to massive numbers, providing they can keep the supply lines moving. Seoul is like 20km from the DMZ. The US would take some time to adequately resupply the country with troops and gear. The body count of that would be huge too.

I have no idea what the right answer to the current problem is. I'm definitely not comfortable with a nuclear powered DPRK because that will just become an Black Market Arms shop.

Edited April 6, 2013 by BDBGoalie

[chevysoldier]

[jbot]

Wow... talk about a "friendly-fire" nightmare! Do all Asians look the same to other Asians' date=' or is it just us? [/quote']

arent you like a poorly dressed white version of kim jong un?

[ReconRat]

Wired.com

Ex-CIA Analyst Expects North Korea to Attack South Korea Before Tensions End

Unless North Korea wants to be annihilated, its leadership has to find a way to climb down from its current wave of provocative rhetoric. But one of the CIA’s former top Pyongyang analysts thinks dictator Kim Jong-un will order a limited strike on South Korea — as a way to actually tamp down hostilities...

“it will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul.”...

“An all-out war with South Korea would spell the end of the North Korean regime,”...North Korea tends to bluster about attacks it can’t deliver, against foes that could destroy it — albeit at terrible cost, measured in Korean lives...

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/04/north-korea-climbdown/

The problem is under-estimating the response (both ways). Some day some one will call the bluff. And respond in kind, in a "limited" amount of retribution. That day is getting closer. North Korea could easily fold up if a response is done correctly. Or blow up if done wrong.