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Crude is below $50/ bbl, but local prices just jumped $.31. WTH??


YSR_Racer_99
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Can someone explain this to me?  Until I hear a convincing answer, I'm blaming Speedway.  

The interwebs says that a bbl is now about $47.50, which is about 5% lower than its close yesterday, but the price jumped from $1.85 at said Speedway to $2.04 (9% higher). 

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I think the bottom is near. I'm expecting crude to b back in the high $60's by August. This is a fu move by many to slow production in the states by making it too cheap to produce.

Edited by Gump
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I think the bottom is near. I'm expecting crude to b back in the high $60's by August. This is a fu move by many to slow production in the states by making it too cheap to produce.

Trying to guess the bottom is the age old "catch the falling knife" game. Seems there are a lot of dynamics at play. Oil has been overpriced for a while; OPEC is weakening as a market force; the Saudis want to maintain market share and punish the Shiites and the Russians, and the frackers; global economy outside the US is slowing; producers have hedged their positions and are rolling those hedges; etc., etc., etc.

Don't oil and natural gas come out of the same hole in the ground? Maybe at different periods in a well's life? I don't know, seems like gas hasn't fallen quite as fast as oil and if drilling a well gets you both - do you sell one at a loss and the other at a profit?

I'm reading stuff from non-crackpot business writers saying that $20-$30 oil is very possible.

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The drillers are going to have a cash flow problem and they become a high default risk for banks. Essentially, they will stop producing because they can't afford to.

Natural gas does often come out of the same well, often being burned off instead of sold. Natural gas prices haven't changed much partly because this is the seasonal time for it to increase and the utilities bought their natural gas last year, who is who we buy it from. We might see it lower to us next year. If oil stays low they will reduce the number of producing wells which will also reduce the amount of natural gas produced which could cause an increase in natural gas. We are already seeing drops in poly products due to resin decreases, probably more towards March.

 

In other words, there's a shit ton of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids like ethane, butane, and propane out there to sell and everyone wanted to sell all they could produce, so much so, that now they have all screwed themselves and the most efficient at it will survive.

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In regards to diesel, an 'expert' was discussing this on the radio and said that unlike regular gas, diesel demand is relatively consistent (i.e. not many hybrid diesels out there) so it keeps prices relatively steady. I get that but if the raw material (i.e oil) is cheaper, why wouldn't that affect the price???

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In regards to diesel, an 'expert' was discussing this on the radio and said that unlike regular gas, diesel demand is relatively consistent (i.e. not many hybrid diesels out there) so it keeps prices relatively steady. I get that but if the raw material (i.e oil) is cheaper, why wouldn't that affect the price???

 

I'd bet the supply is by far the largest variable for both.  I really don't see demand changing that much.

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I've always found it interesting to know what all comes from a barrel of crude...considering so much less is for diesel I think that's why prices are steady...same with propane, such a small amount of crude is for propane that demand seems to be the biggest driving factor.7fb8fe15f3d03322e67e8b27bb19dc35.jpg

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$1.85 over near the fuel tanks on the West side, where it doesn't have to be delivered very far.

Pretty much 2.05-2.07 everywhere else in Columbus.

 

Price will go up and down based on usage, delivery dates, the storage tank capacity, how full it currently is vs the delivery date, etc. The individual gas stations do the same thing, the more gas they can get out of the ground tank before a delivery, the more they can buy, and potentially the more they can sell.

 

Individual stations get deliveries of fuel once a week. Those big storage tanks have to wait their turn to receive from the cross country pipelines. And those pipelines do multiple duty, High test, low test, kerosene, diesel, heating fuel, etc.

 

At some point in the future, deliveries of fuel won't match usage based on population. Simply because of the limits of the delivery system. That will also drive prices up, and perhaps permanently.

 

edit: In the recent past, the limits of the refineries was reached. In part because of old equipment, repair, downtime, etc. Newer refineries got built, and that problem went away for awhile.

Edited by ReconRat
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I didn't know GasBuddy had this map thing:

 

Relative gasoline prices for the state by county on a map. Scroll down to see it.

 

http://www.columbusgasprices.com/Price_By_County.aspx?state=OH&c=usa

 

Can't post the image, wrong image type.

Edited by ReconRat
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