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beating the gas discussion into the ground


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Oh, but can we all agree that we are not going to run out of oil.

 

Need a time-line. We will run out.....in a few hundred years. NO one will agree with you.

 

 

There is a turn around happening in the market right now, it's just hard to see. The dollar has dropped to new lows and people think that times are "bad". Current inflation is about 4.2% and the fed rate is 2.00%, which means the United States has negative real interest rate of 2.20% (Formula: Real interest rate = Fed Interest Rate - Current Inflation) To have a sustainable recovery, Bernanke must raise rates above 4.20% in order to have positive real interest rates.

 

If in inflation levels come down in combonation with Bernanke raising rates....in will eventually lift itself out. Gas may never be $1/gallon.......but it may be $4 for a long time.

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IMO it's supply vs demand. India and China are thriving like never before and we are helping fuel that fire...no pun intended. I've recently visited Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Mumbai, where we have offices, and I was amazed at how alive those regions are. The growth, energy and excitement are literally all over. I can't wait to go to Shenyang China in a few weeks. We're working on a project over there and my co-workers are in awe at what the Olympics are doing to inspire and drive the Chinese.

 

I think speculation plays a part too, but how much, I can't say.

 

My late night opinions:

 

1. Why is it that we can put a man on the moon and lead the world in so many ways yet we can't drive a car on something other than gas? Money. IMO, plain and simple, follow the money. Someone is getting rich off us, the common folk, and they are likely the same folks squashing point #2 below. That is until they figure out how to get rich off those developments.

 

2. If we want to beat the terrorists and fuck everyone in the Middle East, then we need to fuck oil completely and put alternatives in place. I believe there are many different sources of alternatives, including Algae based sources that could reduce/eliminate our dependence on oil. Take away their money and the Arabs will die in the dessert where they stand.

 

3. We as a country need to man up and build shit here and stop outsourcing everything. That would put India and China back in check instead of them living large at our expense. like we've enjoyed for so many years.

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Read something in Car and Driver saying that while the price of a barrel of oil has quadrupled over here in a certain time period when valued in dollars, it has only doubled during the same period when valued in euros. Weak dollar is one of the single biggest factors in this whole deal and people jump straight to blaming oil companies without thinking about other reasons.

 

I am starting to see some real changes in consumption though. I know a couple of people (including my father) who have started riding bicycles to work. Obviously this isn't possible for most people, but I see a lot more bikes on the road going to work in the morning than ever before. I've also started planning out where I'm going to go when I drive somewhere, and try to go to multiple places on the same trip. While it's certainly not easy on anyone, it seems like this is what it's going to take to finally get people to start treating oil like the non-renewable resource that it is.

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My nieghbor has been riding his bike to work, 17 miles each way for about one month now. TT. him last night and he's lost a couple inches and more than a handful of pounds too. :cool:

 

Read something in Car and Driver saying that while the price of a barrel of oil has quadrupled over here in a certain time period when valued in dollars, it has only doubled during the same period when valued in euros. Weak dollar is one of the single biggest factors in this whole deal and people jump straight to blaming oil companies without thinking about other reasons.

 

I am starting to see some real changes in consumption though. I know a couple of people (including my father) who have started riding bicycles to work. Obviously this isn't possible for most people, but I see a lot more bikes on the road going to work in the morning than ever before. I've also started planning out where I'm going to go when I drive somewhere, and try to go to multiple places on the same trip. While it's certainly not easy on anyone, it seems like this is what it's going to take to finally get people to start treating oil like the non-renewable resource that it is.

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IMO it's supply vs demand. India and China are thriving like never before and we are helping fuel that fire...no pun intended. I've recently visited Kuala Lumpur (KL) and Mumbai, where we have offices, and I was amazed at how alive those regions are. The growth, energy and excitement are literally all over. I can't wait to go to Shenyang China in a few weeks. We're working on a project over there and my co-workers are in awe at what the Olympics are doing to inspire and drive the Chinese.

 

I think speculation plays a part too, but how much, I can't say.

 

My late night opinions:

 

1. Why is it that we can put a man on the moon and lead the world in so many ways yet we can't drive a car on something other than gas? Money. IMO, plain and simple, follow the money. Someone is getting rich off us, the common folk, and they are likely the same folks squashing point #2 below. That is until they figure out how to get rich off those developments.

 

2. If we want to beat the terrorists and fuck everyone in the Middle East, then we need to fuck oil completely and put alternatives in place. I believe there are many different sources of alternatives, including Algae based sources that could reduce/eliminate our dependence on oil. Take away their money and the Arabs will die in the dessert where they stand.

 

3. We as a country need to man up and build shit here and stop outsourcing everything. That would put India and China back in check instead of them living large at our expense. like we've enjoyed for so many years.

 

China happens to subsidize gas prices....and is showing signs that it may discontinue or reduce the benefit. I think that China is going to feel the wrath of itself in the next 3-5 years. The attempt to control the markets and manipulate it's currency, is going to come full circle.

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