Monty Hall Problem

[Dr. Pomade]

A friend and I got into a debate this Saturday over this problem. I'll give you the specifics and let you weigh in.

 

Assume all these things to be true:

 

- there are 3 doors

- behind two doors there are goats. Behind one door is a car.

- your goal is to win the car

- the goats and cars are randomly assigned to the doors

- the host asks you to pick door 1, 2, or 3 (and you have to pick one)

- the host then opens one of the doors to reveal a goat

- the hosts asks if you'd like to keep the door you picked or switch to the other door. Your decision will be final.

 

So, do you switch doors? Is there any advantage to switching? Feel free to offer your rationale.

[Dr. Pomade]

PS - the host knows which doors have the goats. So him opening a door is not random. It is deliberate.

[Mr. Jones]

The other door..

[stangsn95gt]

There is no reason to switch doors

[Radio Flyer1647545514]

You switch doors. Statistically you have a higher chance of winning when he offered you the opportunity to change doors.

[Mr. Jones]

There is no reason to switch doors

 

The odds are in your favor if you do. :gabe:

[Gergwheel1647545492]

You switch doors. Statistically you have a higher chance of winning when he offered you the opportunity to change doors.

 

true story right here.

 

When you chose first you had a 33% chance of winning, now when you pick you have a 50% chance

[stangsn95gt]

You switch doors. Statistically you have a higher chance of winning when he offered you the opportunity to change doors.

 

He just eliminated one door making it a 50/50 chance. So how does it statistically increase your chance of winning by switching doors it's still a 50/50 shot.

[Mr. Jones]

He just eliminated one door making it a 50/50 chance. So how does it statistically increase your chance of winning by switching doors it's still a 50/50 shot.

 

It's not 50/50.

 

This "problem" is older than most of CR's population, barring Ray.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

 

 

Have fun with this: http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm

[stangsn95gt]

true story right here.

 

When you chose first you had a 33% chance of winning, now when you pick you have a 50% chance

 

Really?

[stangsn95gt]

I'd still stick with the same door but I'm no statistician

[TTQ B4U]

Is the goat a male or a female

[carl1647545492]

All of the science of percentages is no science at all.

The host is to direct you to the Loosing door,knowing that the key in this case is you would choose the opposite door = win car.

[CRed05]

Have fun with this: http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm

 

I played 4 times, first time around I got a goat, last 3 times I got the car. :fuckyeah:

 

Turns out it was a c7 vette, so asked if I could get the goat back.

:dumb:

[Forrest Gump 9]

Make the goat sound, if the goat react, switch the door if needed.

[Turbs3000]

Statistics says yes, you switch doors.

[2highpsi]

You are better to switch.

 

The initial decision gives you a 1 in 3 chance to win. When the host shows you a losing door, your odds are still 1 in 3. No matter what door you initially chose, he will show you a loser door.

 

By changing your door, you have made an entirely new decision. A decision in where only two doors are unknowns. You now have a 1 in 2 chance in being correct.

[Draco-REX]

Mythbusters did this one. It's FAR FAR better to switch than not.

[2highpsi]

It's hard to understand looking at it in the perspective of one game.

 

But look at it in the context of a million games. If the initial location of the winning prize is random, keeping your initial choice should net you 333,333 wins (give or take a small margin of error)

Run the same million games changing your choice every single time, and you should net 500,000 wins (give or take a small margin of error)

[Geeesammy]

I switch doors, because I could give a fuck less about winning a goat.

[Mallard]

I don't want people to know I'm a goat-fucker, so I would try another door, knowing that the host would give me the other goat. I would then look disappointed in front of the crowd, then go home and fuck the goat.

[Skinner]

Stole this from the 21 script

 

We're gonna call this the game show host problem, all right? Ben, suppose you're on a game show. And you are given a chance to choose

from three different doors, all right?

 

Now, behind one of the doors is a new car. Behind the other two, goats.Which door would you choose, Ben? Door number one?

 

Door number one.

Ben chooses door number one. All right, now, the game show host,who, by the way, knows what's behind all the other doors, decides to open another door.

Let's say he chooses door number three.

 

Behind which sits a goat. Now...

 

Ben, game show host comes up to you. He says, "Ben, do you want to stay

with door number one "or go with door number two?"

 

Now, is it in your interest to switch your choice?

 

- Yeah.

- Well, wait.

 

Remember, the host knows where the car is so how do you know he's not playing a trick on you? Trying to use reverse psychology to get you to pick a goat?

 

 

Well, I wouldn't really care.

I mean, my answer's based on statistics.

 

 

Based on variable change.

 

 

Variable change? But he just asked you a simple question.

 

 

Yeah, which changed everything.

 

 

Enlighten us.

 

 

Well, when I was originally asked to choose a door, I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right. But after he opens one of the doors and then re-offers me the choice, it's now 66.7% if I choose to switch. So, yeah, I'll take door number two, and thank you for that extra 33.3%.

[Buck531]

What if the car has a goat in it? Now I just fucked all your shit up.

[Green Bastard]

What would you do op?

[macpyro2]

What if the game show took place in a jet aircraft, on a runway that is a giant treadmill......would you switch doors then?