Dr. Pomade Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 A friend and I got into a debate this Saturday over this problem. I'll give you the specifics and let you weigh in. Assume all these things to be true: - there are 3 doors - behind two doors there are goats. Behind one door is a car. - your goal is to win the car - the goats and cars are randomly assigned to the doors - the host asks you to pick door 1, 2, or 3 (and you have to pick one) - the host then opens one of the doors to reveal a goat - the hosts asks if you'd like to keep the door you picked or switch to the other door. Your decision will be final. So, do you switch doors? Is there any advantage to switching? Feel free to offer your rationale. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Pomade Posted February 26, 2013 Author Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 PS - the host knows which doors have the goats. So him opening a door is not random. It is deliberate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Jones Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 The other door.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stangsn95gt Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 There is no reason to switch doors Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radio Flyer1647545514 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 You switch doors. Statistically you have a higher chance of winning when he offered you the opportunity to change doors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Jones Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 There is no reason to switch doors The odds are in your favor if you do. :gabe: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gergwheel1647545492 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 You switch doors. Statistically you have a higher chance of winning when he offered you the opportunity to change doors. true story right here. When you chose first you had a 33% chance of winning, now when you pick you have a 50% chance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stangsn95gt Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 You switch doors. Statistically you have a higher chance of winning when he offered you the opportunity to change doors. He just eliminated one door making it a 50/50 chance. So how does it statistically increase your chance of winning by switching doors it's still a 50/50 shot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Jones Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 He just eliminated one door making it a 50/50 chance. So how does it statistically increase your chance of winning by switching doors it's still a 50/50 shot. It's not 50/50. This "problem" is older than most of CR's population, barring Ray. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Have fun with this: http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stangsn95gt Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 true story right here. When you chose first you had a 33% chance of winning, now when you pick you have a 50% chance Really? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stangsn95gt Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'd still stick with the same door but I'm no statistician Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTQ B4U Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is the goat a male or a female Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carl1647545492 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 All of the science of percentages is no science at all. The host is to direct you to the Loosing door,knowing that the key in this case is you would choose the opposite door = win car. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CRed05 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Have fun with this: http://www.grand-illusions.com/simulator/montysim.htm I played 4 times, first time around I got a goat, last 3 times I got the car. :fuckyeah: Turns out it was a c7 vette, so asked if I could get the goat back. :dumb: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forrest Gump 9 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Make the goat sound, if the goat react, switch the door if needed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turbs3000 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Statistics says yes, you switch doors. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2highpsi Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 You are better to switch. The initial decision gives you a 1 in 3 chance to win. When the host shows you a losing door, your odds are still 1 in 3. No matter what door you initially chose, he will show you a loser door. By changing your door, you have made an entirely new decision. A decision in where only two doors are unknowns. You now have a 1 in 2 chance in being correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco-REX Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Mythbusters did this one. It's FAR FAR better to switch than not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2highpsi Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's hard to understand looking at it in the perspective of one game. But look at it in the context of a million games. If the initial location of the winning prize is random, keeping your initial choice should net you 333,333 wins (give or take a small margin of error) Run the same million games changing your choice every single time, and you should net 500,000 wins (give or take a small margin of error) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geeesammy Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 I switch doors, because I could give a fuck less about winning a goat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallard Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 I don't want people to know I'm a goat-fucker, so I would try another door, knowing that the host would give me the other goat. I would then look disappointed in front of the crowd, then go home and fuck the goat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinner Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 Stole this from the 21 script We're gonna call this the game show host problem, all right? Ben, suppose you're on a game show. And you are given a chance to choose from three different doors, all right? Now, behind one of the doors is a new car. Behind the other two, goats.Which door would you choose, Ben? Door number one? Door number one. Ben chooses door number one. All right, now, the game show host,who, by the way, knows what's behind all the other doors, decides to open another door. Let's say he chooses door number three. Behind which sits a goat. Now... Ben, game show host comes up to you. He says, "Ben, do you want to stay with door number one "or go with door number two?" Now, is it in your interest to switch your choice? - Yeah. - Well, wait. Remember, the host knows where the car is so how do you know he's not playing a trick on you? Trying to use reverse psychology to get you to pick a goat? Well, I wouldn't really care. I mean, my answer's based on statistics. Based on variable change. Variable change? But he just asked you a simple question. Yeah, which changed everything. Enlighten us. Well, when I was originally asked to choose a door, I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right. But after he opens one of the doors and then re-offers me the choice, it's now 66.7% if I choose to switch. So, yeah, I'll take door number two, and thank you for that extra 33.3%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buck531 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 What if the car has a goat in it? Now I just fucked all your shit up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Green Bastard Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 What would you do op? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macpyro2 Posted February 26, 2013 Report Share Posted February 26, 2013 What if the game show took place in a jet aircraft, on a runway that is a giant treadmill......would you switch doors then? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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