Tesla Model 3 livestream reveal

[gillbot]

I'm intrigued myself. I just want a car that can go triple digit mileage that simply plugs in. Take it to a friends or family, plug in while visiting then come home. Run all over town, zero gas.

[Draco-REX]

I'm intrigued myself. I just want a car that can go triple digit mileage that simply plugs in. Take it to a friends or family, plug in while visiting then come home. Run all over town, zero gas.

 

This + (RWD or AWD) = A pretty good DD.

 

I'm interested. But with a 2017+ delivery date for pre-orders, I'm going to wait. As fun and economical as it is, it won't satisfy my need for a stick and three pedals. So I'm not sure if I'd really own one. But who can say two or more years down the road?

[BigOxley]

I'll probably do the 2nd batch of one of these cars. This and a small truck will take care of all my driving needs

[HotCarl]

Autodriving is a non feature for me. I don't want it, will never pay for it.

 

Love what Tesla is doing driving the market to nonpolluting transportation, but its not a product that appeals to me yet. Its far too "Apple" and besides, I just got done laying down a payment for a nice fast polluting codpiece of a car.

 

In 5-10 years when the battery technology has matured, and these cars have more than a one-trick-pony (dig race to 100) performance profile and the design gets over the "less is more" bullshit, I'll look again.

 

Unfortunately, non of these early adopter cars will be Hand-me-downs to kids or the really poor. The batteries won't last 10years, tops, with any appreciable range still on them. No amount of clever coding can overcome chemistry and physics. And expect the "free battery replacement for life" thing to go away soon, if it hasn't already. It certainly won't be an option for a high production low price commodity.

 

I agree with most of what you're saying. I like the company, I like what they're doing or at least attempting to do.

 

One question, if you purchase a car now do you realistically think you will keep it for 10+ years? It always seems like the biggest caveat to anyone purchasing a tesla is battery life (and maybe range) but whats the AVERAGE life-span of car ownership? 3 years? 2? and yeah its customer dependent etc... but you get my point. I feel like if people are honest they probably don't keep cars THAT long. Hell I do and the longest I've held onto one car was 8 years.

 

I like that they are trying to innovate and think of the future whereas the big auto companies are just focusing on what will sell now and the immediate future.

[Mallard]

I agree with most of what you're saying. I like the company, I like what they're doing or at least attempting to do.

 

One question, if you purchase a car now do you realistically think you will keep it for 10+ years? It always seems like the biggest caveat to anyone purchasing a tesla is battery life (and maybe range) but whats the AVERAGE life-span of car ownership? 3 years? 2? and yeah its customer dependent etc... but you get my point. I feel like if people are honest they probably don't keep cars THAT long. Hell I do and the longest I've held onto one car was 8 years.

 

I like that they are trying to innovate and think of the future whereas the big auto companies are just focusing on what will sell now and the immediate future.

The big companies are trying to innovate, but they're also trying to turn a profit on much slimmer margins, due to selling mass market vehicles, not premium vehicles, while trying to meet all regulations. Tesla sells 50k cars annually, at over $100k each, doesn't turn an operating profit, sells ZEV credits for a premium, and their stock price soars.

 

The Model 3 is a huge test for them. It's a totally different market with different pressures. For example, VW gets 75% of its profit from Audi and Porsche (something like 55% from Audi alone.) Tesla is moving from the high end Audi market to mass-market VW territory. The pay off is going to be slim.

[Stretch]

I like it so far. Be curious to see the final product in a few years when they're actually on the road.

 

Mileage is more than enough for me. 5 mile commute to work, maybe another 5 miles to the rest of the necessities (gym, groceries, etc)

 

I think the last time I even drove over 200 miles in a day was at least a year ago

[Mallard]

What gets me is this 'launch' was total BS and a total cash grab from people putting down reservations. The first delivery is December 2017, at the earliest! Some people putting down money last week won't see their car until 2020! That's RIDICULOUS! By the time it's on the road it will have been talked about for as long or longer than the new NSX, but the fan boys will still praise them as a great disruptor while the NSX is called stale at launch. When interviewing people standing in line for reservations, one lady said she loved Tesla and wanted to be an all electric family, so she was buying the 3 for her mom. Meanwhile, she put a deposit on a Model X in 2012 an has yet to take delivery!

 

Tesla has a nasty habit of drumming up a bunch of good press right before a disappointing earnings call, and Q1 just ended. Typically, the larger the fanfare, the higher the losses. If that continues to hold true, Q1 earnings are going to be ugly.

[gillbot]

This + (RWD or AWD) = A pretty good DD.

 

I'm interested. But with a 2017+ delivery date for pre-orders, I'm going to wait. As fun and economical as it is, it won't satisfy my need for a stick and three pedals. So I'm not sure if I'd really own one. But who can say two or more years down the road?

 

I'm not even that picky. TBH, for around town and local stuff, I'd rock a golf cart if I could get one plated.

[Mowgli1647545497]

...

One question, if you purchase a car now do you realistically think you will keep it for 10+ years? ...

I get what you're saying: I typically own cars for 2-5 years (but my last one, the V, I owned for 12 due to family).

 

That's not the point though, since every new car that gets owned by one person for 5 years THEN gets owned by the next person for another 5-10, and THEN by another person for x years, and so on.

 

That can't happen with Tesla's. The batteries have a shelf life. And batteries, unlike ICEs, can't be reinvigorated, though they can be replaced. Although cost to fully replace an engine is still way lower than a battery swap.

 

Additionally, I REALLY dislike the concept of doing away with the binnacle and incorporating everything in one surface tablet. Talk about single point of failure, that thing goes out (and they will go out) and you are toast. You can't drive the start, start the car, diagnose the car, charge the car, you likely won't even be able to open the doors to the car.

 

Also, the whole thing they said about de-emphasizing the driver. I really don't like that. I like to drive. I want to be the most important seat in my car. Not a passenger in a taxi. This car is for people that don't like to drive.

 

Stuff like this makes me say to myself: wait it out. Tesla doesn't have the experience of providing cars to people who need to use them to do everyday life. A $100k car buyer has options for when the car fails that $30k car buyers do not.

 

Tesla's total customer experience consists of a demographic of rich-ish early adopters and believers. Most of which shows up in the fanboyism you see in the blogosphere. There's some rationalizing and irrationality you see around them that's very Apple user like.

 

Once people start getting these cars that NEED them to work in order to get to work and so forth, THEN we'll start to see the real deal. It'll take a bit. Just like the S started out all wonderful praises and roses, then a year or so later gets pulled completely from the Consumer Reports recommended list.

 

In that regard I can't help but feel that the big players, GM et al, have a leg up with their Bolt. They're used to servicing the WHOLE customer base. Not just fanboys who are accustomed to sucking their dick.

 

I'm interested and will stay tuned.

[jeffro]

What gets me is this 'launch' was total BS and a total cash grab from people putting down reservations. The first delivery is December 2017, at the earliest! Some people putting down money last week won't see their car until 2020! That's RIDICULOUS! By the time it's on the road it will have been talked about for as long or longer than the new NSX, but the fan boys will still praise them as a great disruptor while the NSX is called stale at launch. When interviewing people standing in line for reservations, one lady said she loved Tesla and wanted to be an all electric family, so she was buying the 3 for her mom. Meanwhile, she put a deposit on a Model X in 2012 an has yet to take delivery!

 

Tesla has a nasty habit of drumming up a bunch of good press right before a disappointing earnings call, and Q1 just ended. Typically, the larger the fanfare, the higher the losses. If that continues to hold true, Q1 earnings are going to be ugly.

 

How is that any different from a ponzi scheme?

[Dafunk13]

Don't remember where I heard it, or maybe I made it up...Not sure. During the infancy of Tesla didn't Musk say the plan was to finance R&D and necessary infrastructure (giant battery factory, charging stations, etc.) on the back of the sales of the initial "luxury" car with the end goal being to produce an economical car for the masses? I thought that was the point of operating in the red all this time. All profit was reinvested into rolling this ball forward in anticipation of the release of this thing...right? Now he's got over a quarter-million pre-orders and can start making $$$ forreals.

[Sledhead36]

Ordered 2. Will most likely flip them for some cash. I count on some people being asleep at the wheel on these launches.

[Littleguy]

Nice, I thought about doing a pre-order but the wait to get it just seems too long. Luckily I will be able to console myself with the fact that the stock has performed wonderfully. Edited April 4, 2016 by Littleguy

[Mowgli1647545497]

....or $50,000 instead

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3963032-tesla-announces-35000-car-shows-50000-car

 

Read the bit on the Superchargers. No surprise to me. So begins the reeling in of free perks. As is necessary for them to be a real automaker.

 

 

But I chuckled at some people's expectations at my office around Tesla giving out free energy for hundreds of thousands of people.

[gillbot]

Register to read the article? Pass.

[airwg2189]

....or $50,000 instead

 

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3963032-tesla-announces-35000-car-shows-50000-car

 

Read the bit on the Superchargers. No surprise to me. So begins the reeling in of free perks. As is necessary for them to be a real automaker.

 

 

But I chuckled at some people's expectations at my office around Tesla giving out free energy for hundreds of thousands of people.

 

Literally every other automaker on the planet does this.

[Mallard]

As predicted, after the hype machine comes more bad news.

 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2016/04/05/tesla-over-promises-and-under-delivers-again/#e8c923a41df6

[Sledhead36]

lol, I think the news is fine, probably expected it. He still has performed miracles that no other manufacture has done, he is the genius of our time, that comes with lots of issues............I cannot understand why you hate Elon so much?

[Mallard]

I don't hate Elon. I actually like the guy and what he's doing, but I think they are overhyped. They bleed cash, still never turned a profit, and by March 31 they missed the guidance they laid out on Feb 10. It took them a month and a half to miss their targets.

 

The auto industry is a tough place to be in business, and Tesla is the most successful start up in a very long time. I understand it takes a lot of cash to start in this business, but their business plan hinges on riding the wave of hype and continuing to raise additional funding.

 

I have no problem with Tesla or Elon. I have a problem with how the company is valued relative to other automakers.

[airwg2189]

Honestly, did anyone expect them to be turning a profit until the Model 3? I could have sworn this was their plan as it was laid out damn near a decade ago. It's a MASSIVE investment to be cranking out in-house parts unique to their cars like they do, especially so with such a high pricetag and niche market.

 

These articles are nothing more than clickbait IMO. The only real news is delivering under 16k cars this quarter. But so what? They had a quarter underperform as they were revealing a new car, potentially causing buyers to wait and see the new car before dumping twice the money on a Model S? This all looks pretty expected to me. Tesla isn't Ford, they don't have a massive stable of other vehicles to soak profits while dumping a fuckton of cash into R&D (including the Gigafactory) for a new product.

 

Give it time. Tesla is a massive success. The Model 3 might not be the car of the future, but Tesla's groundwork in creating it absolutely is.

[Mallard]

Honestly, did anyone expect them to be turning a profit until the Model 3? I could have sworn this was their plan as it was laid out damn near a decade ago. It's a MASSIVE investment to be cranking out in-house parts unique to their cars like they do, especially so with such a high pricetag and niche market.

 

These articles are nothing more than clickbait IMO. The only real news is delivering under 16k cars this quarter. But so what? They had a quarter underperform as they were revealing a new car, potentially causing buyers to wait and see the new car before dumping twice the money on a Model S? This all looks pretty expected to me. Tesla isn't Ford, they don't have a massive stable of other vehicles to soak profits while dumping a fuckton of cash into R&D (including the Gigafactory) for a new product.

 

Give it time. Tesla is a massive success. The Model 3 might not be the car of the future, but Tesla's groundwork in creating it absolutely is.

Yes, I still consider Tesla a success, but it's the valuation of Tesla that's an issue, especially when they aren't profitable.

 

I don't think for a second that anyone delayed the purchase of a Model S because of the 3's debut, and the S wasn't the Q1 issue, it was the X. The launch of the X has been a disaster with continual delays and they still aren't hitting production targets...and these were targets that were revised a month and a half ago. They still aren't delivering X's to people that put deposits down 3 - 4 years ago, and the ones they have delivered are largely forgiving. They understand that they are beta testers and they take problems in stride. Have you seen the problems of X's that have been delivered? This is not their only car, so they have other vehicles to fall back on when their Tesla doesn't work. The S is also full of quality problems which are not publicised, but again the customers are forgiving.

 

With the 3 they are moving into a different market, where this will be someone's sole method of transportation and they don't have the attitude of being a beta tester. Everything has to work flawlessly or there will be complaints. The margins are also thinner. Remember where I said that VAG makes 75% of its profit from Audi and Porshce? This is the market the S and X play in, while the 3 is more like a VW. The launch of the 3 will not solve Tesla's profitability. The launch of the gigafactory apparently will, as long as demand is high.

 

GM can afford to sell the Bolt for a loss, Tesla can't do the same with the 3.

[Littleguy]

GM can afford to sell the Bolt for a loss, Tesla can't do the same with the 3.

 

No, GM must sell the Bolt for less and Tesla does not have to with the Model 3.

[Sledhead36]

I don't hate Elon. I actually like the guy and what he's doing, but I think they are overhyped. They bleed cash, still never turned a profit, and by March 31 they missed the guidance they laid out on Feb 10. It took them a month and a half to miss their targets.

 

The auto industry is a tough place to be in business, and Tesla is the most successful start up in a very long time. I understand it takes a lot of cash to start in this business, but their business plan hinges on riding the wave of hype and continuing to raise additional funding.

 

I have no problem with Tesla or Elon. I have a problem with how the company is valued relative to other automakers.

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-delivered-14820-vehicles-quarter-2016-4

[Mallard]

No, GM must sell the Bolt for less and Tesla does not have to with the Model 3.

They are both $35k cars with the battery being the single most expensive component. The Bolt has a 60kWh battery, the 3 is supposedly a 65 kWh.The price pressure is very high in this segment, the margins aren't anywhere near what they enjoy on the S and X. Companies make money on small cars by cranking out a ton of them, keeping the plant at full capacity. If we shut down a plant we're losing $1 million per hour. Tesla still can't meet the manufacturing rate they set for themselves at the plant.

 

The bottom line is, if they can't get the plant running full-tilt, and if the gigafactory isn't running full-tilt (to keep the battery costs down), they may sell every car at a loss. It's a huge gamble to stray into this price class.

 

If Chevy sells it for a loss they crank out a few more Yukon's/Suburban's. Tesla can't afford to sell at a loss.

[Mallard]

http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-delivered-14820-vehicles-quarter-2016-4

 

 

SUV's will drive sales, so I don't doubt the X will sell well...if they can get through all of the pre-orders and get the plant up to rate. Hell, Maserati plans to sell 30k Levante's this year, twice the entire brands sales from 2016.

 

As for the 3's outlook...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20160404/BLOG06/160409914/1221

 

 

"But it could end up being much further ahead than that if the Model 3's launch slips well past Tesla CEO Elon Musk's year-end 2017 forecast, which many educated observers believe is almost a certainty.

 

In an April 1 research note, Barclays Capital analyst Brian Johnson said he doesn't think the Model 3 will be available in "significant volumes" before 2019."