Model 3 is arriving

[Mallard]

Bolt, Volt, Molt - whatever any other car company wants to call their EV

 

You also have an android. Sooooo....

 

You could think the Model S looks like a Hyundai, but 10's of millions of other people that would buy one do not.

Lol @ "10's of millions."

 

While 500k preorders is impressive, they are not sales, and that's a far cry from 10's of millions. The Model S and X are in stock and only sell 76k per year combined. Jeep sold 1.4 million.

 

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[El Karacho1647545492]

Bolt, Volt, Molt - whatever any other car company wants to call their EV

 

You also have an android. Sooooo....

 

You could think the Model S looks like a Hyundai, but 10's of millions of other people that would buy one do not.

 

I don't know if I've ever seen so much hyperbole or strawmanning packed into so few words.

 

What does android have to do with anything? Every time I buy a phone I compare the merits of iPhone vs whatever android products are on the market and find the one that fits my needs the best. I don't just blindly buy one or the other because android vs iphone. I guess that's where you and I have a disconnect; objective analysis of the merits of a thing, rather than just buying what's trendy and sexy.

[Sledhead36]

Nothing makes me giggle more than the negative comments......about how Elon will fail. Lol. Head in the sand....

[Sledhead36]

As a day 1, in-store reservation holder, mine is estimated for a December-February delivery for a first production. I originally wanted to opt for the AWD but I don't think I can wait that long. After a few years Ill upgrade to it if needed.

 

Is there anyone else on here that is purchasing one?

 

I have two of them on order. One is scheduled for an October delivery and the other one for eight December delivery. I'm going to order the first one to just see what it's all about. Probably will flip it in a couple months. I will order the second one Winn the all wheel drive comes out.

[Mallard]

Nothing makes me giggle more than the negative comments......about how Elon will fail. Lol. Head in the sand....

Depends on your definition of failure.

 

Does Tesla continually miss estimated launch dates? Yes.

 

Will Tesla be able to make 500k vehicles per year out of that plant? Very unlikely.

 

Will Tesla be able to ramp up Model 3 production as fast as projected? Most likely not.

 

Will his cars be fully autonomous (claimed "Level 5") this year? No. They will never be "Level 5."

 

Will people cancel their Model 3 orders because they still can't afford it? Yes.

 

Does the Model 3 deliver on the promise of a "mainstream" EV? Sort of, but it's still priced out of the mainstream market,but it's arguable. It will come down to lease prices and financing to go mainstream, but you're also asking people to spend several thousand dollars on a home charging station, which isn't in the price of the car, and many were sold on the expectation of Autopilot, not being a BEV, which they're now priced out of.

 

Will Tesla build a car that people like? I think there is no doubt that it will receive high praise. The interior is funky, but people will overlook that and I'm sure it drives well.

 

Is Tesla the future of motoring? Full BEVs are still being debated as the ultimate solution. Electric drive, I believe yes. Only batteries on board, I believe no. That's not head in the sand, that's reality of today's technology.

 

Tesla sells vehicles because of their technology and acceleration as much or more than being a BEV. I'm convinced that without Autopilot and Ludicrous mode they would not nearly sell as well. No other BEV sells as well and they are chasing the mainstream market too. Keep in mind that the Model 3 is slower than the S and X, and is about as fast as a Camry V6.

 

Also know that I actually like Elon, I like what he's doing, I like the Tesla (despite some questionable design decisions), and I hope they are successful.

 

 

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[El Karacho1647545492]

Nothing makes me giggle more than the negative comments......about how Elon will fail. Lol. Head in the sand....

 

There's a pretty wide gap between Tesla failing, and Tesla failing to live up to expectations set by Elon. As Mallard said, they will likely fail to live up to lofty expectations, but they will not fail as a company.

[Sledhead36]

There is no doubt, I drank the Kool-Aid in 2009 when I met Elon in Palo Alto. I couldn't wait to invest in this company. There's no doubt he has missed a few deadlines, and certainly the model S interior could've been a little more luxurious, but I've been nothing but overwhelmed every time I bought a vehicle, and I think about how much driving has changed since 2009. For a daily driver, I wouldn't own anything but an electric vehicle.

 

I already see the effect it had on all the ICE manufactures. So many of them have started to add all the safety features of lane control and automatic braking. Do I think he will be able to produce 500,000 cars a year? This one, I think he will not miss. It'll take a year to find out. But I think he's going to be able to do it. After touring the facility, I think it's totally possible.

 

People are going to be the biggest hindrance to fully self driving cars. I think there's going to be a huge reluctance to give up the ability to drive. However if you analyze some of the situations as to why we have so much traffic, it only makes sense to give it up. In one study Elon examined a single intersection. 10 years ago you could get between 30 and 40 cars through a single green light. Today that number has dropped in half. Why, driver distraction. It used to take only a few milliseconds for somebody to begin to accelerate forward when the light turned green. Today, it can take up to two or three seconds for each vehicle to start to accelerate because of distractions. So only half the number of cars get through the intersection. Elon believes we can get 3 times the original number of cars through the intersection of all the vehicles are communicating with one another, and they actually know the latest turning green.

 

Regardless of what one's position is on self driving vehicles or electric vehicles in general, I think it's cool as hell.

Edited August 7, 2017 by Sledhead36

[Mallard]

There is no doubt, I drank the Kool-Aid in 2009 when I met Elon in Palo Alto. I couldn't wait to invest in this company. There's no doubt he has missed a few deadlines, and certainly the model S interior could've been a little more luxurious, but I've been nothing but overwhelmed every time I bought a vehicle, and I think about how much driving has changed since 2009. For a daily driver, I wouldn't own anything but an electric vehicle.

 

I already see the effect it had on all the ICE manufactures. So many of them have started to add all the safety features of lame control and automatic braking. Do I think he will be able to produce 500,000 cars a year? This one, I think he will not miss. It'll take a year to find out. But I think he's going to be able to do it. After touring the facility, I think it's totally possible.

 

People are going to be the biggest hindrance to fully self driving cars. I think there's going to be a huge reluctance to give up the ability to drive. However if you analyze some of the situations as to why we have so much traffic, it only makes sense to give it up. In one study Elon examined a single intersection. 10 years ago you could get between 30 and 40 cars through a single green light. Today that number has dropped in half. Why, driver distraction. It used to take only a few milliseconds for somebody to begin to accelerate forward when the light turned green. Today, it can take up to two or three seconds for each vehicle to start to accelerate because of distractions. So only half the number of cars get through the intersection. Elon believes we can get 3 times the original number of cars through the intersection of all the vehicles are communicating with one another, and they actually know the latest turning green.

 

Regardless of what one's position is on self driving vehicles or electric vehicles in general, I think it's cool as hell.

This popped up today, and while I'm not with it 100%, I tend to agree with most of it.

 

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/26/15872468/tesla-gm-ford-valuation-justifying-disruption?utm_campaign=vox.social&utm_medium=social&utm_content=voxdotcom&utm_source=facebook

 

Tesla's valuation makes no sense, and Elon has to continue to make aggressive promises in order to maintain this. Tesla sales are not driven by BEV demand, they are Apple-like in their cult following. So what happens if they fall out of style? This is also why others will fail spectacularly; Karma, Fisker, Faraday Future, Lucid, and probably NIO as well.

 

What Tesla has been able to do is speed up adoption of autonomous features, which you already hit on. However, this isn't because he's ahead in development of these features. It's because they have equipped the vehicle with more hardware than necessary at launch and have flash over the air (FOTA) capability. FOTA is also made a little easier since it's a BEV too. Traditional automakers would develop the feature entirely, proved it was safe with some validation, THEN gone about the process of integrating it into a vehicle. This could put as much as 5 years between proving feasibility and rolling it out to the public. Elon has eliminated a good chunk of that by "giving away" some expensive hardware up front.

 

Also, what the link I posted doesn't say is that Elon openly stated that he was never out to make a profit. He set out to change the auto industry and prove BEV's were viable. He has proven this (somewhat), but he also continually invests in infrastructure, which is one reason why they don't turn a profit. Infrastructure (plants, Gigafactory, Supercharger network) will always have value, and if he can get others to adopt his Supercharger framework that value will grow tremendously (which is why he opened his patents to his competitors). Even if Tesla goes bankrupt the infrastructure will remain and Elon will have met his original goal.

 

If you do a safety analysis on Tesla's current hardware, I think you'll have a hard time believing that it will ever be anything other than a level 2 system, potentially level 3 at low speed, but level 5 is a pipe dream to everyone, let alone Tesla. The concern being, if Tesla is selling on the promise of Autopilot, what happens in ~2020 when comparable Level 2 features can be had on other mainstream vehicles? What happens if NHTSA makes them turn it off?

 

There's no doubt that Tesla has effected the industry, but whether this will translate to sales and longevity remains to be seen. The rest of the industry has reacted and Tesla will have direct competition from established players.

 

 

 

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[zeitgeist57]

Was talking about this at brunch yesterday - you cannot deny the amazing success Elon and Tesla have had through amazing vision turned into well-executed, next-generation products. Even NPR was talking this morning on my way into work about SolarCity roofs being launched ($23/sq.ft!) with a lot of excitement.

 

I've balanced the hype with the products: I am a huge fan of Tesla, and wouldn't bet against Elon to get something done once he sets his mind to it. I think the underground tunnel is a weird one though...

 

The only 2 things I'm concerned with for the Model 3's production numbers:

1) Limits on the resources needed for batteries - seems like China is controlling most of the heavy industrial metals, chemicals, and precious materials needed to build batteries for 500k+ cars.

2) Unionization - This has largely been squashed every time it comes up, but if some 20th-century labor union tries to control Tesla's factories, you can kiss the economics of a $40k Tesla goodbye. I'm sure Elon can't automate as much of the assembly process as he possibly could quick enough.

[Sledhead36]

Good article, but I have not read one positive article about Tesla by the media. They all want the company to fail. I guess big oil must be an incredible influence. Even if I am 100% wrong, I am ok with any outcome. Because at least we tried.

[turbospec29]

On the basis of 40-45k for a new model 3 as a dd. What is the value of that over a used model s at say 50k?

[Mallard]

Was talking about this at brunch yesterday - you cannot deny the amazing success Elon and Tesla have had through amazing vision turned into well-executed, next-generation products. Even NPR was talking this morning on my way into work about SolarCity roofs being launched ($23/sq.ft!) with a lot of excitement.

 

I've balanced the hype with the products: I am a huge fan of Tesla, and wouldn't bet against Elon to get something done once he sets his mind to it. I think the underground tunnel is a weird one though... [emoji38]

 

The only 2 things I'm concerned with for the Model 3's production numbers:

1) Limits on the resources needed for batteries - seems like China is controlling most of the heavy industrial metals, chemicals, and precious materials needed to build batteries for 500k+ cars.

2) Unionization - This has largely been squashed every time it comes up, but if some 20th-century labor union tries to control Tesla's factories, you can kiss the economics of a $40k Tesla goodbye. I'm sure Elon can't automate as much of the assembly process as he possibly could quick enough.

I think even with unionization it would be possible. Plants are becoming extremely automated. The biggest factor will be battery costs. Also, rumor was that the Model 3 would have a steel body, but this would GREATLY complicate the assembly plant, so I assume those rumors were false. If they are true I would kiss any dreams of building 500k vehicles in that plant goodbye.

Good article, but I have not read one positive article about Tesla by the media. They all want the company to fail. I guess big oil must be an incredible influence. Even if I am 100% wrong, I am ok with any outcome. Because at least we tried.

I don't see this as oil money influencing the news cycle. Vox is even a "liberal" news site that would be infatuated with all things green. I think this was a pretty realistic article questioning Tesla's valuation, from my viewpoint. And again, I'm a fan of his and I like what he's done, but I have to be realistic.

 

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[El Karacho1647545492]

Good article, but I have not read one positive article about Tesla by the media. They all want the company to fail. I guess big oil must be an incredible influence. Even if I am 100% wrong, I am ok with any outcome. Because at least we tried.

 

I read pretty much nothing but effusive praise of Tesla

[Mallard]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/tesla-planning-1-5-billion-bond-offering-to-support-model-3

 

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[zeitgeist57]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/tesla-planning-1-5-billion-bond-offering-to-support-model-3

 

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That's a smart option. Tesla will leverage a strong market cap to get favorable credit terms in the bond market - a lot of banks wanting to underwrite an offering like this for a company like Tesla, I'm sure.

[STEVE-O]

On the basis of 40-45k for a new model 3 as a dd. What is the value of that over a used model s at say 50k?

 

We won't know for a bit how bad it affects the S line model but it is crazy to think that they are 100k new and in 5 years there value normally depending on miles drops to the 40-50 mark

 

Yes I understand new car values and that is will fall but I'm just shocked that being what it is they don't retain value a little better.

 

With that I think I have fully decided that even if I got a used 60 at the cost of a new 3 the S is still a much better option

[El Karacho1647545492]

That's a smart option. Tesla will leverage a strong market cap to get favorable credit terms in the bond market - a lot of banks wanting to underwrite an offering like this for a company like Tesla, I'm sure.

 

According to Tesla's statement, this isn't about raising funds specifically to fund Model 3 production, it's more about building a cash cushion.

 

At this point no one should feel any confidence in speculating what Musk's true motives are for anything like this

[zeitgeist57]

We won't know for a bit how bad it affects the S line model but it is crazy to think that they are 100k new and in 5 years there value normally depending on miles drops to the 40-50 mark

 

Yes I understand new car values and that is will fall but I'm just shocked that being what it is they don't retain value a little better.

 

With that I think I have fully decided that even if I got a used 60 at the cost of a new 3 the S is still a much better option

 

http://jalopnik.com/newish-electric-cars-are-coming-off-lease-and-oh-my-god-1790593342

 

Electric cars, for now, are significantly cheaper on the used market as the market figures out what the demand curve looks like. Tesla definitely holds value better, but the depreciation relative to the wear-and-tear is high.

 

According to Tesla's statement, this isn't about raising funds specifically to fund Model 3 production, it's more about building a cash cushion.

 

Riiiiiiight.....and I'm not working because I need the money right now, I'm just improving my retirement nest egg.

 

OF COURSE HE NEEDS THE MONEY NOW. They're burning through cash!!!

[TTQ B4U]

Tesla sells vehicles because of their technology and acceleration as much or more than being a BEV. I'm convinced that without Autopilot and Ludicrous mode they would not nearly sell as well. No other BEV sells as well and they are chasing the mainstream market too. Keep in mind that the Model 3 is slower than the S and X, and is about as fast as a Camry V6.

 

All the great performance involved, I've maybe once seen anyone driving one on the streets of Columbus, ever lean into it hard regularly. That was a silver or gray one around Easton area and I see him occasionally. Most everyone else I've seen appear to be just average people commuting around town.

[Aaron]

All the great performance involved, I've maybe once seen anyone driving one on the streets of Columbus, ever lean into it hard regularly. That was a silver or gray one around Easton area and I see him occasionally. Most everyone else I've seen appear to be just average people commuting around town.

 

It's because of the car you drive...

 

I've been in vehicle performance "situations" with no less than 4 teslas, all men 35-50ish.

 

But, as with any car, the majority are just turds driving.

[STEVE-O]

http://jalopnik.com/newish-electric-cars-are-coming-off-lease-and-oh-my-god-1790593342

 

Electric cars, for now, are significantly cheaper on the used market as the market figures out what the demand curve looks like. Tesla definitely holds value better, but the depreciation relative to the wear-and-tear is high.

 

 

Tesla also does not have a good outlet for a used market resell. They ship them to companies who have a contract to buy their used trades and they get shipped to auction usually or on occasion go to the CL market.

 

I am lucky to have the avenue of auction and contacs so when the time comes I search hard for one I will be able to locate one without a ton of effort

[zeitgeist57]

Tesla also does not have a good outlet for a used market resell. They ship them to companies who have a contract to buy their used trades and they get shipped to auction usually or on occasion go to the CL market.

 

I am lucky to have the avenue of auction and contacs so when the time comes I search hard for one I will be able to locate one without a ton of effort

 

It does seem that - aside from battery capacity degradation over time - a used Model S makes all the sense in the world. Aside from interior/body damage, you need to worry about brakes, tires, and suspension...and largely that's it.

 

Can't wait to see the aftermarket "hot rod" battery packs or provide with an improved solution...with solid hardware, there's no reason why a Model S cannot go 500k miles easier than an internal-combustion automobile.

[greg1647545532]

with solid hardware, there's no reason why a Model S cannot go 500k miles easier than an internal-combustion automobile.

 

Don't forget the batteries themselves are water cooled, and there's all kinds of circuitry and valves designed to keep the batteries at optimum temperature for battery life and to prevent, you know, explosions.

 

I think there's generally a lot of paranoia about battery lifespans, but there's also a lot of unknowns. The amount of energy going into and out of, say, a P100 battery pack is really something, and it generates a shitload of waste heat in both directions.

[o0n8]

We won't know for a bit how bad it affects the S line model but it is crazy to think that they are 100k new and in 5 years there value normally depending on miles drops to the 40-50 mark

 

Yes I understand new car values and that is will fall but I'm just shocked that being what it is they don't retain value a little better.

 

With that I think I have fully decided that even if I got a used 60 at the cost of a new 3 the S is still a much better option

 

Auto Trader shows a couple sub $40k

[El Karacho1647545492]

Can't wait to see the aftermarket "hot rod" battery packs or provide with an improved solution

 

I just had visions of an Autozone "modded" Tesla with Duralast "sponsor" stickers all over it :lolguy:

 

Actually I imagine brakes are one of the consumables that Tesla won't have to worry about much. Sure they're heavy vehicles, but at least a solid portion of the time they're using regen braking, which takes a lot of the friction and wear/tear out of the equation.