Consequences of the EV-lution?

[99StockGT]

Something I have kicked around for years and has become more and more of a worry as we look to the future, what are the potential social explosions with removing ourselves from the oil addiction?

 

Ever since oil was discovered in the Middle East their civilizations have grown and flourished in otherwise what is near as makes no difference "inhospitable" lands. Incredible temps, little fresh water, sandy wastes, very little (if any) arable land, and few other marketable natural resourses. Oil is the reason for their cities and structures to be where they are. High prices paid those costs, put cash in the coffers, and afforded near limitless development. Once those prices began to tumble we see ...

 

Venezuela which was once riding high on oil revenues now in a completely failed state, civilization has ground to a halt. The average citizen has lost 19lbs, food and medical supplies are almost impossible to find, even TOILET PAPER almost non-existent. The government is essentially broke, inflation is completely out of control, personal and business assets are being seized daily by the dictatorship as it tries to stick a finger in the dam hole. Tens of thousands of people are fleeing to neighboring countries to try and survive... and this is in an area that can grow crops, gets rain, and humans are capable of living outside. Civil war or at the very least some sort of revolution isn't far for that country.

 

But what happens when this same problem hits the Middle East? With an entire region which is already a tinder box for so many other issues, what happens when we take away 90% of their state income? What happens when over a 10-20 year period the building blocks on which their entire civilization is built disappears? Few of their countries have production industry, few have much of any farming land, even fewer have reliable sources of fresh drinking water. Going back the Bedouin society they once were pre oil isn't an option, so what happens?

 

Just something that's rolled around in my brain for quite some time and I figured I would toss it out to all the brains of CR to kick around. Thoughts? Comments? Predictions?

[Geeto67]

well....first off this is a long way off. Even if we got rid of all the gasoline cars (which by my estimation would take roughly a century and a half), there are still things that will require oil, like airplanes, to run. Also it is used prolifically in manufacturing to the point we can't have things like toothbrushes and tires without it. We will never be totally without oil.

 

hopefully in that time those regions figure out another way to make money. They won't destabilize instantly unless something sudden happens to them. The Sudden thing that happened to Venezuela was the withholding of the US dollar from importers and price control measures inside the country, and then a drought. Venezuela is not a "poor" country but they do import a majority of essential goods and voluntarily taking themselves out of the traditional trade structure crippled the nation.

[Forrest Gump 9]

You know that almost everything we use is a by product of petroleum right? Plastic, rubber, diesel, engine oil......Hell, the way things go we’ll be lucky to survive the next four years.

We may be on the edge of the revolution but countries likes India, China, most of Africa are long from it. So oil will still be in demands, may not for transportation but for other means.

[caseyctsv]

You know that almost everything we use is a by product of petroleum right? Plastic, rubber, diesel, engine oil......Hell, the way things go we’ll be lucky to survive the next four years.

We may be on the edge of the revolution but countries likes India, China, most of Africa are long from it. So oil will still be in demands, may not for transportation but for other means.

 

While this is all true, not using it to power cars will significantly reduce demand. I believe it is a very good question and I think we will see the effects in our lifetimes.

[Second Gen]

I think we will see a decrease in the need for crude for many reasons, but we will likely never completely exit the need.

 

EV or hybrids are getting better and better

 

An aircraft manufacturer (Zunum) stated they have a EV plane and plan to start selling it in 5 years

 

A lot of the oil (My opinion) is cheap because of volume and labor. If this drops dramatically we will most likely source it here (But it is a dirty job and for the environment - Maybe)

 

As mentioned above we are all going to hold on to our Chevy II's/Cudas/Vettes/etc for decades unless the government forces us to retrofit them

 

my

http://www.columbusracing.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=888&pictureid=8912

Edited October 6, 2017 by Second Gen
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[Cordell]

How many brand new cars do you see on the road? How many cars 10 years old?

 

My point is this, this will be a gradual change. Hopefully slow enough to prevent major economic melt down so things can adapt. I'm hopeful that finding fuel for my cars will still be possible in my 70s because while I may buy an EV in the future for transportation I do not intend on giving up my toys for fun. I think that will be a popular ideal for people who like having more then one car. Obviously the oil market will slow, but smart people call themselves an energy company and look at alternatives. People and companies will learn to adapt or die off, and that is something no one can predict.

[Orion]

One thing could change this, battery tech. If there is a legit breakthrough in our ability to store energy in a battery, all of this will jump ahead by quite a bit. That is whats holding us back right now.

 

That being said, there are still so many applications for oil that it won't crater overnight. It will shrink, for sure, but I think we'll always be using it for something.

[RC K9]

[Orion]

Good vid. It's more than just cost, though...they have to actually store power more efficiently as well, otherwise they will take up some serious space.

[zeitgeist57]

An aircraft manufacturer (Zunum) stated they have a EV plane and plan to start selling it in 5 years

 

I try to stay connected with the aviation industry, and this Zunum blew my mind. Over decades of propulsion improvements that never made it mainstream, this article perfectily encapsulates the need for 1) more efficient air travel through viable evolutions in jet/turbofan tech, and 2) Better use of our FAA-approved national network of airports.

 

https://techcrunch.com/2017/10/05/how-zunum-aeros-hybrid-electric-planes-aim-to-transform-flight-starting-in-2022/

 

Very excited to see where this goes.

 

One thing could change this, battery tech. If there is a legit breakthrough in our ability to store energy in a battery, all of this will jump ahead by quite a bit. That is whats holding us back right now.

 

This.

 

1000% this.

[Doc1647545523]

Lots of good comments and food for thought in this thread.

 

I'm now adapting to newer technologies in ways I wouldn't have considered just two or three years ago. I had long been an advocate of buying vs leasing and of acquiring used vs. new, and of the virtue of distinctive cars over cookie-cutter cars.

 

But this week the equation changed for me and I sold a couple cars and leased a new Honda Accord Hybrid base model. Not totally EV, I know, but getting an honest 52 mpg in the first 300 miles (higher than its EPA estimates) and enjoying gliding around town silently in full EV mode.

 

Things change.

[99StockGT]

While yes I agree there are many other applications for crude oil the impact of pulling the internal combustion engine's ever thirsty appetite from the market will be a HUGE change to the industry. Those yuge container ships filled to the brim with crude are largely going to refineries where it's broken down into fuel, not turned into Tupperware containers. The plastics world is also always looking for alternative materials to create their products with, so don't count even that as a long term use.

 

As for the "We have a long time, don't worry yourselves" argument, yes this will not happen over night. This will not happen next year. But with companies like GM, Tesla, and others getting these cars into the mainstream it will a rising tide much faster than most people think. Look at the past 10 years, how far have we come? You saw essentially 0 electric or even hybrid cars on the road now you likely can't drive more than a 15 minute drive to work without passing at least a few. Some of them you may never even know, those sneaky hybrid techs are hiding under the hoods of many "normal" cars.

 

Where one we had 1 or 2 people looking into battery tech now everyone from car companies, to cellphone manufactures, to aviation, to the military are looking for better lighter more efficient faster charging power storage options. With so many players in the R&D side of things the competition is fierce and you can almost bet within just a handful of years there will be SOME major tech leap in this field.

 

Now, will all dino juice cars disappear overnight? No absolutely not. Are there people driving around on 10-15-20 year old cars today because they either can't afford to buy new, or choose to have an older ride? Absolutely. Will parts continue to exist for those types of cars? Absolutely. BUT, if you have the option of driving your 10 year old Chevy Whatever that you spend X amount to put fuel into, and Y amount to repair/maintain at what point does a Hybrid/EV that gets 400 miles per charge (at very little cost) become the better route? With fewer failure/wear items in their cars your cost to keep plummets. We also need to honestly talk about subsidies, those can give a POWERFUL motivation to change this industry in a hurry. How many people would be buying Civics at $199 per month that still require $100-$150 in gas per month when you can buy an EV for $250-$300 per month and never have to see a gas station again? Never have to pay for an oil change again?

 

Will classics still be able to run up and down the road making 'Merica sounds? Likely yes, we won't be taking away your right to make rumble. Will they become more and more of a "luxury" item? Very likely. Will they continue to demand the prices they do now? Time will tell.

[Geeesammy]

Venezuela collapsed because socialism. Not just because oil

[99StockGT]

Venezuela collapsed because socialism. Not just because oil

 

They functioned quite well for a number of years under socialism, even becoming a production hub for American manufacturing for South America. Socialism was an issue yes, and they spent piles of Oil Riches like the oblivious pseudo-dictators they wanted to be but the wheels continued to roll... until bad decisions, poor management, and a few other things were kicked over the cliff by the loss of Oil Rev.

 

http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171.htm

 

Also, for reference

 

https://www.forbes.com/places/saudi-arabia/

Edited October 6, 2017 by 99StockGT

[Second Gen]

Looking forward to the new battery tech coming down the line as well. The article below describes the person (Goodenough) that created the Lithium Ion collaborating on one that removes lithium and the explosion potential using sodium.. Still years away, but promising (Lasting/temps/density)

 

https://news.utexas.edu/2017/02/28/goodenough-introduces-new-battery-technology

Edited October 6, 2017 by Second Gen
Spelling

[aussiek2000]

Current utilities can't even begin to handle to load of charging EV's if they were to become mainstream. Hell, they already ask people to turn AC up.

 

Once the infastructure is updated to handle EV's, expect energy prices to sky rocket. My guess is that electric would surpass gasoline in price.

[zeitgeist57]

If you also look at Mazda, their new HCCI engine...

http://autoweek.com/article/technology/watch-how-mazda-built-new-engine-technology

...will extract a lot more efficiency over the energy harnessed in conventional gasoline.

 

In addition, while battery technology keeps getting better, there are still a lot of hybrids that utilize range-extending engines...still requiring petroleum-based fuels.

 

Still good times for us internal-combustion fans!

[coltboostin]

I think its going to get real messy when these countries start to run out of Cash.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/one-chart-that-shows-which-middle-eastern-countries-could-run-out-of-money-in-less-than-five-years-a6709511.html

[Second Gen]

Clay,

 

Always wanted to build a 80's car (Light like the Datsun 810) with batteries and a Warp engine. That is what the branded the motor name. As the cars were very light and all the weight was the batteries and the converters. Watched one of these at a drag strip beat the crap out of a lot of combustion/gas cars there (OK regular street cars) and then drove it home..

 

Want to do that some day when I am not saving pennies to build a house..

[Orion]

Current utilities can't even begin to handle to load of charging EV's if they were to become mainstream. Hell, they already ask people to turn AC up.

 

Once the infastructure is updated to handle EV's, expect energy prices to sky rocket. My guess is that electric would surpass gasoline in price.

 

That is half true. Most of the adjustment of thermostats is based on price points, not ability to generate. It's a form of collaborative market adjustment that utilities engage in mutually in order to keep from needing to gouge one another if something is askew. Very rarely is it a case of "there isn't enough power". Additionally, the majority of charging will be done at night, when power is at its least expensive, and is being used the least. As far as energy prices skyrocketing, any improvement in battery technology will also be used by the utilities. Meaning that they can generate power at night when it's cheap, and store it for the day, and sell it for profit. Having spent several years in the retail energy biz, the only real issue I can see happening would be on the regulatory side. Some senator will want to fuck with a system that is working just fine, and shit will get weird as a result.

[zeitgeist57]

Once the infastructure is updated to handle EV's, expect energy prices to sky rocket. My guess is that electric would surpass gasoline in price.

 

I don't think so. Respectfully, if the need for additional EV infrastructure (charging, electricity storage, on-the-road electric transmission) grows, it's directly correlated with the mainstream adoption of EVs. Outside of government regulations mandating the transition to EV, OEMs will have to incentivize the market to buy EVs: make them cheap/desirable to purchase and operate.

 

This means that, pound for pound, EV's will have to be better/cheaper performers than gas cars in order for it all to work long-term.

[zeitgeist57]

Clay,

 

Always wanted to build a 80's car (Light like the Datsun 810) with batteries and a Warp engine. That is what the branded the motor name. As the cars were very light and all the weight was the batteries and the converters. Watched one of these at a drag strip beat the crap out of a lot of combustion/gas cars there (OK regular street cars) and then drove it home..

 

Want to do that some day when I am not saving pennies to build a house..

 

The good news is that the longer you delay in building that project, the better/cheaper the tech will be to do it.

 

Think about a wrecked Tesla drivetrain in something like a Saturn SL... :woowoo:

 

EDIT: I just realized that kids these days have no idea who Bubb Rubb was...

[Orion]

EDIT: I just realized that kids these days have no idea who Bubb Rubb was...

 

"The whistle go Whoo WOOOOOOO!"

 

"We do it fo dekorayshu, das all. Jus fo dekorayshun..."

[99StockGT]

I think its going to get real messy when these countries start to run out of Cash.

 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/one-chart-that-shows-which-middle-eastern-countries-could-run-out-of-money-in-less-than-five-years-a6709511.html

 

Thanks for the link, hadn't read that article but goes straight to the heart of the conversation I was hoping to start. The EV-lution is coming, the sliding time table of when is getting closer and closer pretty much no matter who you ask. Those countries that are already in the red and we are at "Barely any EVs on the road" level, what happens when instead of demand for their product recovering it continues to slip further and further? Your problems come faster than expected, not slower. What happens if that world altering battery tech happens in as the article states... the next 5 years?

 

You have countries like Yemen, and Libya which are already in a state of civil war. Iraq which is hanging on be a thread and with the new Kurdish independence push possibly on the very near horizon...all while STILL dealing with the ISIS issues. Iran is on that list, still tugging back and forth between their old style theocratic world and the new modern technological one much of the youth would like to be involved in. Also their Kurdish minority population is looking at their Iraqi brethren with eager eyes. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman... all countries that essentially can not EXIST without the oil trade being their life blood.

[99StockGT]

Uh huh... Tesla announces new 1.9 sec 0-60 roadster... 8.9 in the 1/4, $200,000 so right in "Supercar" range... same time announces the Tesla Semi aimed at the transportation market once thought ruled by Cat/Cummins/Etc for all time..

 

Meanwhile in the ME, Yemen is days away from nearly total starvation, Lebanon is teetering with the "retirement" of their Prime Minister. Saudi's have had some extremely interesting "corruption crackdown" arrests in the past few weeks, consolidating power for the crown prince as his assent to power nears... complete with a very odd helicopter crash in the middle of the desert taking out a possible rival. Syria looks like it will very shortly be back under the control of the Assad regime, Iran has now shipped and launched missiles from Yemen and will shortly be launching several new rockets of short and medium range able to hit anywhere interesting

 

As the world turns...