CoronaVirus

[zeitgeist57]

My bank extended a halt for all internal/external meetings from May 1st...now it's May 31st.

[gillbot]

We just had a wave of retirements announced. I’m expecting layoffs will be announced next. :-(

[Tractor]

Looks like my PPP loan is actually moving forward slowly. I applied on the 6th. I haven't heard anything from the SBA about the other loan though.

[The Other Nick]

I was talking with a guy I work with today that had a confirmed case of the virus. He said in all, it actually wasn’t as bad as they made it out to be. Granted he is younger but it gives a glimmer of hope against all the negative and misleading info the media keeps pumping out to induce panic.

[zeitgeist57]

Congrats to your coworker...but it's not necessarily the fact that he got along fine with covid-19; the bigger concern is that he transmits it to others.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/investigations/2020/04/09/instead-prepping-coronavirus-trump-partied-golfed-held-fundraisers/2941076001/

[Wease]

I was talking with a guy I work with today that had a confirmed case of the virus. He said in all, it actually wasn’t as bad as they made it out to be. Granted he is younger but it gives a glimmer of hope against all the negative and misleading info the media keeps pumping out to induce panic.

 

Thanks for posting this. I believe the media drives so much of this panic. They really seem to focus on the small percentage of those that are having major issues with it.

[gillbot]

Thanks for posting this. I believe the media drives so much of this panic. They really seem to focus on the small percentage of those that are having major issues with it.

 

But those of us particularly susceptible are interested, and if those who aren’t were unrestricted the death toll is likely to have been extremely higher.

[spankis]

I was talking with a guy I work with today that had a confirmed case of the virus. He said in all, it actually wasn’t as bad as they made it out to be. Granted he is younger but it gives a glimmer of hope against all the negative and misleading info the media keeps pumping out to induce panic.

 

FYI, my parents neighbor has has it. He's a 35-40ish year old man, a fireman in good shape, and my mom spoke to his wife today.

 

He's had a fever fluctuating between 102 and 103 for the past 11 days, has been in and out of the ER three times, and in addition has the gastrointestinal symptoms (can't keep anything down). Apparently the most substantial food he's eaten so far is half a peanut butter and jelly yesterday. He's not better yet.

 

Makes me pretty sure I don't want it, nor do I want anyone in my family to enjoy it.

[B3NN3TT]

2 different people I know have lost a parent to it just this week. Nasty stuff.

[greg1647545532]

2 different people I know have lost a parent to it just this week. Nasty stuff.

 

Are you sure they haven't just bought into the media panic? Maybe their parents are alive and they're just overreacting.

 

(sorry for their respective losses, I don't mean to make light)

[1Quik7]

Not a fan of the pressers right now patting ourselves on the back for how good we've done. It will for sure make some not take it as serious and could lead to another ramp up. Our cases are still climbing so there's still alot of uncertainty. Talk to me in June and let me know how we've done or better yet....talk to me when we have an actual working and available vaccine. Until then I'm staying locked down.

 

I bet 10-1 that once this is 'under control' that Trump will make a statement patting himself on the back for the "perfect" job he's done, and other countries have called him and agreed. (There will also be a mention of a perfect phone call).

[wagner]

Thanks for posting this. I believe the media drives so much of this panic. They really seem to focus on the small percentage of those that are having major issues with it.

 

It's been a very interesting study in journalism to see how the media has covered this. There's 110% no doubt this is a very deadly virus that should be taken seriously, but there are certain outlets that have really made things worse.

 

I was trained as a journalist by two people that have been collectively writing for over 30 years. They told me the same thing all the time: just report the facts, if you don't have the facts either don't put something in writing or be careful how you portray what you're saying.

My cousin who was a long-time news producer for Channel 4 told me the same thing as well.

 

Here's the problem I see from a professional level: The media started right off the bat pushing this thing as the next big plague that was going to wipe humanity off the face of the earth. Now, are people dying, yes, is their suffering yes, but not to the level the media portrayed.

 

Some will say it was "necessary" for them to be so stern and serious. I agree, there's a certain level of caution that needed to be put out there. The problem is, they took it too far and then weaponized the political side of it rather than just sticking to facts. This is just how the media works these days.

 

Now, all of this had lead to a huge uptick in social media experts and quasi-media posting some crazy stuff on Facebook and twitter that people thing is the truth. That has lead to bad comparisons becoming the truth in many people's eyes and kicked off the "film your hospital" movement. Sure, go to some BFE county hospital where you have a single reported case and you won't see bodies in the street. Go to the right hospital in NYC or Lousiana and you're going to see some serious shit.

 

The other issue is these models that were put out there as the gospel and showed this virus was going to kill everyone and overwhelm hospitals across the country haven't panned out. This is in my opinion of reckless reporting and has caused a lot of issues and angst.

 

TL;DR --- This is a bad situation being made much worse by the new media.

[Mallard]

I bet 10-1 that once this is 'under control' that Trump will make a statement patting himself on the back for the "perfect" job he's done, and other countries have called him and agreed. (There will also be a mention of a perfect phone call).

Pretty sure he's already doing this daily. Our testing is perfect [emoji108], everyone gets a test that needs a test and the results are fast (not true, and federal support of testing centers is being withdrawn), and all hospitals have enough PPE now [emoji108](also not true, and he wants to fire the Inspector General that published a report that surveyed hospitals and found they still have massive equipment shortages, insinuating that because she also served under Obama that she's part of the deep state working against him)

 

The virus hit people differently, but even though many don't have to go to the hospital it's still not pleasant. The 20% hospitalization rate is pretty flat across all age ranges and many others are left to tough it out at home.

 

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[Exodus]

It's been a very interesting study in journalism to see how the media has covered this. There's 110% no doubt this is a very deadly virus that should be taken seriously, but there are certain outlets that have really made things worse.

 

I was trained as a journalist by two people that have been collectively writing for over 30 years. They told me the same thing all the time: just report the facts, if you don't have the facts either don't put something in writing or be careful how you portray what you're saying.

My cousin who was a long-time news producer for Channel 4 told me the same thing as well.

 

Here's the problem I see from a professional level: The media started right off the bat pushing this thing as the next big plague that was going to wipe humanity off the face of the earth. Now, are people dying, yes, is their suffering yes, but not to the level the media portrayed.

 

Some will say it was "necessary" for them to be so stern and serious. I agree, there's a certain level of caution that needed to be put out there. The problem is, they took it too far and then weaponized the political side of it rather than just sticking to facts. This is just how the media works these days.

 

Now, all of this had lead to a huge uptick in social media experts and quasi-media posting some crazy stuff on Facebook and twitter that people thing is the truth. That has lead to bad comparisons becoming the truth in many people's eyes and kicked off the "film your hospital" movement. Sure, go to some BFE county hospital where you have a single reported case and you won't see bodies in the street. Go to the right hospital in NYC or Lousiana and you're going to see some serious shit.

 

The other issue is these models that were put out there as the gospel and showed this virus was going to kill everyone and overwhelm hospitals across the country haven't panned out. This is in my opinion of reckless reporting and has caused a lot of issues and angst.

 

TL;DR --- This is a bad situation being made much worse by the new media.

Well said.

 

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[zeitgeist57]

Wags, great reminder and well put: in the age of 24-hour news cycle, with an insatiable hunger for content, the media will spin what hastily-gathered facts they have together into whatever sells ads the fastest. It’s refreshing to see articles that clearly have timelines and quotes from numerous sources (things that take time) because the perspective can be refreshing.

 

The other thing making the news negative: people WANT to know that the situation outside is dire, to justify the fact that they are stuck at home for another 1.5 months!!

[Brandon]

Again small sample sizes but the early results are what seems a logical hypothesis. This is matching up with Germany

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says

 

Stanfords data should be out this week early.

 

What if there was never a flatten the curve? What if they missed that window altogether (to mitigate) and like many countries once testing came on board (much later here) we are all experiencing a very similar curve (which appears to be the case)? If R0 is 2-2.5 and by CDC estimates 1 out of 31 imported shed on air travel from China at the early start of the virus back in late November would put around 3-5 million folks conservatively having the virus by the beginning of the "stop the spread" lock down order. https://www.contagionlive.com/news/statistical-models-forecast-locations-likely-to-see-covid19 People said Acton was clueless when she came out early with over 100k people having the virus, that doesn't seems too far reaching really. It certainly would not take long to get to 1000 important cases in the USA and around the globe at that rate in and out of Wuhan.

 

If we humor the early model of 2.2 million dead. We have a fairly close guess on a known start date, we know the transmission spread rate, we know the air travel import rate, assuming 1000 cases by Dec 17th which is probably generous, we can essentially double on 4.x days, as well as adding 1000 spreaders every 5-7 days until the travel ban...These are CDC numbers, you get to around 3 million conservatively and that is with out adding more imported cases from Europe ect during that time line. If you use this basic math (which is off I know, I am sue I will get hammered) 29 days in feb, 15 in march 44 days and 11 doubling its like 6 billion, so uhhh...what. So clearly there is someone a little loose on the data here. Was it doubling because they were testing or spreading? https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/ Its likely just been lurking here, if COVID-19 was really on the rise the number of positive results would follow the number of tests given line closer or even close in on it? I would imagine.

 

 

 

Data gathered in a pandemic is a huge problem to solve because its horribly unreliable. Look at the correction of H1N1 by and order of magnitude of 10 after the dust settled.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

In the end It is likely plausible that SARS-COv2 is going to have a very high R knot but likely are very low CFR almost the same as the flu potentially lower once you uncover the underlying data. Novell virus's have historically followed a 3-4 month peak followed by flattening and sharp decline. If you think that it started here late December then it would appear to be peaking near the draconian lockdown measures? (Maybe) You can see this in some data...?

 

 

 

 

 

You can point out this is when (march 15) physical distancing starts which may explain the leveling, however you could also say that it should still be doubling growing with bars restaurants spring breakers ect all out and about still that first week. I read the thread and see people complaining "no one taking it serious". But maybe it took a more historical course? Maybe I do not know.

 

It is all just very interesting, to think in a different direction potentially. Maybe the market knew as well about peaking, as we know greed trumps all and transposing it is interesting.

 

I know its a real threat, I am not intending to undermine those ill, just as I wouldn't with those struggling with cancer or another disease. But it is all just interesting to exercise ideas with in reason.

 

A little tin foil, but not with fake numbers. Just a thought, and yes a low educated not and epidemiologist not and expert; ill sit back down thought.

 

Back to antibody tests, really praying those show what we are seeing early signs of and we can kick this pandemic to the curb.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Brandon

[Mallard]

Again small sample sizes but the early results are what seems a logical hypothesis. This is matching up with Germany

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/early-antibody-testing-in-chicago-30-50-of-those-tested-for-covid-19-already-have-antibodies-report-says

 

Stanfords data should be out this week early.

 

What if there was never a flatten the curve? What if they missed that window altogether (to mitigate) and like many countries once testing came on board (much later here) we are all experiencing a very similar curve (which appears to be the case)? If R0 is 2-2.5 and by CDC estimates 1 out of 31 imported shed on air travel from China at the early start of the virus back in late November would put around 3-5 million folks conservatively having the virus by the beginning of the "stop the spread" lock down order. https://www.contagionlive.com/news/statistical-models-forecast-locations-likely-to-see-covid19 It certainly would not take long to get to 1000 important cases in the USA and around the globe at that rate in and out of Wuhan.

 

If we humor the early model of 2.2 million dead. We have a fairly close guess on a known start date, we know the transmission spread rate, we know the air travel import rate, assuming 1000 cases by Dec 17th which is probably generous, we can essentially double on 4.x days, as well as adding 1000 spreaders every 5-7 days until the travel ban...These are CDC numbers, you get to around 3 million conservatively and that is with out adding more imported cases from Europe ect during that time line. If you use this basic math (which is off I know, I am sue I will get hammered) 29 days in feb, 15 in march 44 days and 11 doubling its like 6 billion, so uhhh...what. So clearly there is someone a little loose on the data here. Was it doubling because they were testing or spreading? https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/ Its likely just been lurking here, if COVID-19 was really on the rise the number of positive results would follow the number of tests given line closer or even close in on it? I would imagine.

 

 

 

Data gathered in a pandemic is a huge problem to solve because its horribly unreliable. Look at the correction of H1N1 by and order of magnitude of 10 after the dust settled.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

 

In the end It is likely plausible that SARS-COv2 is going to have a very high R knot but likely are very low CFR almost the same as the flu potentially lower once you undercover the underlying data. Novell virus's have historically followed a 3-4 month peak followed by flattening and sharp decline. If you think that it started here late December then it would appear to be peaking near the draconian lockdown measures? (Maybe) You can see this in some data...?

 

 

 

 

 

You can point out this is when (march 15) physical distancing starts which may explain the leveling, however you could also say that it should still be doubling growing with bars restaurants spring breakers ect all out and about still that first week. I read the thread and see people complaining "no one taking it serious". But maybe it took a more historical course? Maybe I do not know.

 

It is all just very interesting, to think in a different direction potentially. Maybe the market knew as well as we know greed trumps all and transposing it is interesting as well.

 

A little tin foil, but not with fake numbers. Just a thought, and yes a low educated not and epidemiologist not and expert ill sit back down one.

 

Back to antibody tests, really praying those show what we are seeing early signs of and we can kick this pandemic to the curb.

Hard to say, really. The case count in the US follows the testing availability, and there were lots of cases uncounted that had symptoms, let alone anyone asymptomatic.

 

We REALLY need to get the antibody test out in large numbers to understand how much it's spread through the community. I definitely want to get tested to understand if I may have had this when I came down with pneumonia in Dec (still unlikely, given the time lines) or possibly got it later and was asymptomatic.

 

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[Brandon]

Hard to say, really. The case count in the US follows the testing availability, and there were lots of cases uncounted that had symptoms, let alone anyone asymptomatic.

 

We REALLY need to get the antibody test out in large numbers to understand how much it's spread through the community. I definitely want to get tested to understand if I may have had this when I came down with pneumonia in Dec (still unlikely, given the time lines) or possibly got it later and was asymptomatic.

 

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I am ready to pay a fair price to test as well, for sure. I think most people would love the peace of mind. The key is also to make sure the test validate the right covid-19 some out there are only 95% accurate and showing positive for similar corona virus.

 

Although some may not, "what I don't know cant hurt me"...Pretty ignorant

[nurkvinny]

Where have you seen 95% accuracy in identifying the correct Corona virus?

[spankis]

Regarding testing, the fireman neighbor I mentioned further up the page was tested twice after the onset of fever and symptoms, and he tested negative both times. In both cases the staff caring for him basically said "you absolutely have this, we are convinced, but the testing has been a little inconsistent". Take that for what you will, not sure myself

 

Same dude went to the ER late last night when his condition worsened. Was admitted and now has pneumonia.

 

Stay safe folks.

[Wease]

Some interesting information from a good friend of mine (we served in the Air Force together), his uncle was in the hospital back in mid January for a bad respiratory infection. This was in Birmingham Alabama. Doctors were stumped, but he got better and kicked it. Last week he went back in for a follow up, had the antibody test for COVID-19 and sure enough, tested positive. More proof positive that this was here in the US before the first "official" case on Jan. 20.

[gillbot]

Some interesting information from a good friend of mine (we served in the Air Force together), his uncle was in the hospital back in mid January for a bad respiratory infection. This was in Birmingham Alabama. Doctors were stumped, but he got better and kicked it. Last week he went back in for a follow up, had the antibody test for COVID-19 and sure enough, tested positive. More proof positive that this was here in the US before the first "official" case on Jan. 20.

 

How can one be sure he didn’t get it recently and was asymptomatic?

[Exodus]

How can one be sure he didn’t get it recently and was asymptomatic?

The asymptomatic piece seems to be the wild card in this whole thing. I'm not sure one can be sure they did or did not have it before January based on the fact that some people could have been asymptomatic. Maybe a bunch of people in December had it and were just asymptomatic? Maybe no one had it until very late January. I'm just thankful we are taking action against this thing.

 

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[gillbot]

The asymptomatic piece seems to be the wild card in this whole thing. I'm not sure one can be sure they did or did not have it before January based on the fact that some people could have been asymptomatic. Maybe a bunch of people in December had it and were just asymptomatic? Maybe no one had it until very late January. I'm just thankful we are taking action against this thing.

 

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My only thought is that asymptomatic people *could* have had it prior, but without testing, there is no PROOF. Probable? Yes very much so but that doesn’t equate to proof. I believe in raw data more than anything else and at this point it is pure speculation as there was zero testing back then.

[Exodus]

My only thought is that asymptomatic people *could* have had it prior, but without testing, there is no PROOF. Probable? Yes very much so but that doesn’t equate to proof. I believe in raw data more than anything else and at this point it is pure speculation as there was zero testing back then.

You are right. We'll never know for sure because there was no testing before a certain date.

 

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