Coronavirus II

[Mallard]

Here's the national data. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are on the rise. Obviously deaths will lag cases and hospitalizations.

 

https://covidtracking.com/data

 

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[spankis]

I keep hearing/reading the "cases don't matter, it's the death rate and hospitalization that matters"...

 

This logic obviously requires that you ignore exponential spread. The more people that get it, the more people they can give it to, and the more they can give it to, etc., etc.

 

The number of cases is DIRECTLY related to how LONG we continue with this shit, and how high the risk of exposure is to everyone in the meantime. Seems to me that the "cases don't matter" brand of statistical analysis seems to be little more than a good way for people to convince themselves that it's not important or worthy of their concern, risk mitigation, or personal sacrifice. People can justify whatever reality they prefer it seems.

[Otis Nice]

Can anyone confirm if your area hospitals are filling up? Akron/canton/cleveland area hospitals are diverting my wife's nursing home patients elsewhere.

 

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Apparently not.

[Geeesammy]

How many months in?

 

I've changed some habits, some friends have, most friends haven't.

 

I FINALLY have a friend in fucking UTAH that has it.

 

Found out my Aunt in a nursing home who has been on lockdown since day 1 has gotten it.

 

NOT saying it is a hoax, but makes you wonder a lot.

[Mallard]

I keep hearing/reading the "cases don't matter, it's the death rate and hospitalization that matters"...

 

 

 

This logic obviously requires that you ignore exponential spread. The more people that get it, the more people they can give it to, and the more they can give it to, etc., etc.

 

 

 

The number of cases is DIRECTLY related to how LONG we continue with this shit, and how high the risk of exposure is to everyone in the meantime. Seems to me that the "cases don't matter" brand of statistical analysis seems to be little more than a good way for people to convince themselves that it's not important or worthy of their concern, risk mitigation, or personal sacrifice. People can justify whatever reality they prefer it seems.

Well, the reason people *CAN* say that and still be credible is that in the first wave they were only testing people who required hospitalization. Lot's of cases were never counted. Now that testing has ramped up we are counting more cases, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's worse than the first wave. Assuming the % of cases that will require hospitalization remains steady, you can use this to try to correlate the case loads between the first wave and whats happening now. It's not the full picture though, because real statisticians (not internet experts) would also look at the ages of the positive tests and use the proper hospitalization rates for each age range.

 

There was a previous spike that did not result in a large increase in deaths, and that has been attributed to a large number of the cases were younger. It sounds like the current spike is not just college students.

 

 

 

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[spankis]

Your commentary on testing differences is completely valid, and I get that comparing numbers from early on to now is like apples to potatoes in some ways. To say that it's not directly comparable is fair, but for so many to downplay the risk of huge case count for all but those "most at risk", is a fairy tale I'm afraid.

[Mallard]

...but for so many to downplay the risk of huge case count for all but those "most at risk", is a fairy tale I'm afraid.

 

I agree 100%. What the mortality rate doesn't tell you is that many people who "got better" have serious health issues that may be life long. Blood clots, strokes, lung/kidney/heart/etc damage, and that's not just old people.

 

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[Forrest Gump 9]

Last weekend we drove down to Boone, NC. On the way there we stopped by a small town call Damascus. Lots of people out biking, lots of people in restaurants, no mask to be seen. Same thing in Boone, NC. We did not eat in the restaurant just get some carry out. It’s definitely not like here.

[Furloaf]

Noticed people wearing masks less since the election.

[10phone2]

less covid drama on tv.

[TTQ B4U]

Well, the reason people *CAN* say that and still be credible is that in the first wave they were only testing people who required hospitalization. Lot's of cases were never counted. Now that testing has ramped up we are counting more cases, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's worse than the first wave. Assuming the % of cases that will require hospitalization remains steady, you can use this to try to correlate the case loads between the first wave and whats happening now. It's not the full picture though, because real statisticians (not internet experts) would also look at the ages of the positive tests and use the proper hospitalization rates for each age range.

 

There was a previous spike that did not result in a large increase in deaths, and that has been attributed to a large number of the cases were younger. It sounds like the current spike is not just college students.

 

 

Based on Ohio's .csv file the numbers are revealing.

 

No doubt the discovery of testing is on the rise and it is due in part to increased testing. We've ramped up numbers double digits for months now. From 13k per day in June to 49k per day thus far in November. Now testing alone is the reason of course, but location of those tests will also ramp up discovery of cases. The health dept through contact tracing knows where to set up shop as the hot spots become clear. Together More Testing in the Hot Spots will increase the positivity rate. Is the virus spreading faster? perhaps but we do know that we can find more when we test more and test in the correct areas. The upside is each month as testing increases the case fatality rates for the various age groups drop.

 

Hospitalizations are important of course. The whole pandemic started with the flattening of the curve to protect the hospital system. That never mean all those under the curve that got it or even died from it wouldn't it just the results / impact would be more spread out over time to allow the systems the ability to catch up and cope.

 

Hospitalizations can increase with the increase in cases but the rate at which they are going up has been slowing since May. In other words the number of people testing positive the amount per day that end up hospitalized is dropping. It was as high as 14% back in May, then 8% in June, 7% in both July and August, even last month with a sharp increase in positives, it was only 5% and thus far 10 days into November we are at 4%. Thus despite DeWine trying to scare people today with his case numbers which continue to be based on "reported on dates" not ACTUAL dates the hospitalization rate per case is down 20% over last month and 33% lower than we saw in September.

 

I think we can all agree deaths are the key factor of concern. Thankfully there too the numbers and rate of death has been dropping and we stand at the lowest death count per day all year even today. The rate of death per case and rate of death per hospitalization are both dropping. In summary as of today less people per positive test, per hospitalization and overall are dying than at any point since March.

 

Here too, DeWine avoids talking about deaths because the numbers are not only at record lows month after month but the rate of death per cases this month is 50% lower than last month and that was over 65% lower September. Deaths per hospitalization are down nearly 40% over last month too. To put numbers to it, when Ohio "opened back up" in May we tracked at 39 deaths per day. July as bad as it was stood at 22 per day, September with it's media hyped "spike" in cases, 18 per day, October 14 and November....we are at 9 per day. In Franklin county he haven't lost anyone in November. Last month, 5 people out of nearly 2M.

 

Sadly deaths do continue to be among the elderly with 80-90% being in those over age 70. Protect the elderly.

 

Cliffs: Positive cases are going up for lots of reasons but the improvements in terms of hospitalizations and deaths are so strong that it's absolutely no surprise the media in Ohio isn't covering it. Those stats wouldn't fit the narrative to keep people in fear thus in control.

[Brandon]

Based on Ohio's .csv file the numbers are revealing.

 

No doubt the discovery of testing is on the rise and it is due in part to increased testing. We've ramped up numbers double digits for months now. From 13k per day in June to 49k per day thus far in November. Now testing alone is the reason of course, but location of those tests will also ramp up discovery of cases. The health dept through contact tracing knows where to set up shop as the hot spots become clear. Together More Testing in the Hot Spots will increase the positivity rate. Is the virus spreading faster? perhaps but we do know that we can find more when we test more and test in the correct areas. The upside is each month as testing increases the case fatality rates for the various age groups drop.

 

Hospitalizations are important of course. The whole pandemic started with the flattening of the curve to protect the hospital system. That never mean all those under the curve that got it or even died from it wouldn't it just the results / impact would be more spread out over time to allow the systems the ability to catch up and cope.

 

Hospitalizations can increase with the increase in cases but the rate at which they are going up has been slowing since May. In other words the number of people testing positive the amount per day that end up hospitalized is dropping. It was as high as 14% back in May, then 8% in June, 7% in both July and August, even last month with a sharp increase in positives, it was only 5% and thus far 10 days into November we are at 4%. Thus despite DeWine trying to scare people today with his case numbers which continue to be based on "reported on dates" not ACTUAL dates the hospitalization rate per case is down 20% over last month and 33% lower than we saw in September.

 

I think we can all agree deaths are the key factor of concern. Thankfully there too the numbers and rate of death has been dropping and we stand at the lowest death count per day all year even today. The rate of death per case and rate of death per hospitalization are both dropping. In summary as of today less people per positive test, per hospitalization and overall are dying than at any point since March.

 

Here too, DeWine avoids talking about deaths because the numbers are not only at record lows month after month but the rate of death per cases this month is 50% lower than last month and that was over 65% lower September. Deaths per hospitalization are down nearly 40% over last month too. To put numbers to it, when Ohio "opened back up" in May we tracked at 39 deaths per day. July as bad as it was stood at 22 per day, September with it's media hyped "spike" in cases, 18 per day, October 14 and November....we are at 9 per day. In Franklin county he haven't lost anyone in November. Last month, 5 people out of nearly 2M.

 

Sadly deaths do continue to be among the elderly with 80-90% being in those over age 70. Protect the elderly.

 

Cliffs: Positive cases are going up for lots of reasons but the improvements in terms of hospitalizations and deaths are so strong that it's absolutely no surprise the media in Ohio isn't covering it. Those stats wouldn't fit the narrative to keep people in fear thus in control.

 

Fair analysis Tim!

 

How does the expected mortality rates pre covid track YOY post covid, so expected Oct 19' vs expected Oct 20'. Just curious.

[greg1647545532]

Hospitalizations are important of course. The whole pandemic started with the flattening of the curve to protect the hospital system. That never mean all those under the curve that got it or even died from it wouldn't it just the results / impact would be more spread out over time to allow the systems the ability to catch up and cope.

 

Hospitalizations can increase with the increase in cases but the rate at which they are going up has been slowing since May. In other words the number of people testing positive the amount per day that end up hospitalized is dropping. It was as high as 14% back in May, then 8% in June, 7% in both July and August, even last month with a sharp increase in positives, it was only 5% and thus far 10 days into November we are at 4%. Thus despite DeWine trying to scare people today with his case numbers which continue to be based on "reported on dates" not ACTUAL dates the hospitalization rate per case is down 20% over last month and 33% lower than we saw in September.

 

This is true, of course -- in terms of a % of positive cases, hospitalizations are down. But in terms of raw numbers, hospitalizations are at the highest they've been since the pandemic started and trending upward. Since both cases and hospitalizations are trending in the wrong direction, and hospitals are starting to near capacity, is there anything in your analysis that suggests it's not just a matter of time before hospitals are full?

[RedRocket1647545505]

Columbus hospitals have been on citywide diversion since 2200 Monday.

[TTQ B4U]

This is true, of course -- in terms of a % of positive cases, hospitalizations are down. But in terms of raw numbers, hospitalizations are at the highest they've been since the pandemic started and trending upward. Since both cases and hospitalizations are trending in the wrong direction, and hospitals are starting to near capacity, is there anything in your analysis that suggests it's not just a matter of time before hospitals are full?

 

 

Outside the anecdotal data from the 3 MD's I have in my family, 1 in Cbus, 1 in Zainy and way up in Oregon, I use the following link to keep what tabs we as citizens can on things. The upside I'm hearing is the stays are shorter thus turning of beds is quicker. I also know that being end of year hospitals in general will get busier as elective procedures increase and as in general people are out to use their yearly benefits so covered procedures that they put off will happen in Q4.

 

https://covidactnow.org/state/OH?s=1309318

[RedRocket1647545505]

This is true, of course -- in terms of a % of positive cases, hospitalizations are down. But in terms of raw numbers, hospitalizations are at the highest they've been since the pandemic started and trending upward. Since both cases and hospitalizations are trending in the wrong direction, and hospitals are starting to near capacity, is there anything in your analysis that suggests it's not just a matter of time before hospitals are full?

 

 

Can confirm. Though the percentage of hospitalizations per positive test is down, the overall positive test numbers are still up. We deal with an actual finite number of beds in hospitals, so while the percentages look better on paper, that doesn't actually mean shit in the healthcare world. There are still only so many available beds and so many available healthcare workers to care for them.

 

I do my part, wear my mask, wash my hands, etc., but I'm to the point where I feel the country should lock up the (typically) vulnerable population or those who truly want to wait it out, open the contingent healthcare facilities, lock down the borders, roll in the full time military for assistance, and everyone take off the masks and go for herd immunity. Deal with the rapid spike and the fallout from it, and lets get on with this. This dragging it on while waiting for a viable vaccine is tiring.

 

I'm no anti-vaxxer or conspiracy theorist, but if you think I'm going to take some experimental vaccine fresh out of the lab, you've got another thing coming. And, I'm sure they're going to mandate this for healthcare workers, so I'm curious how that is going to play out.

 

I, like probably many of you, am over the whole thing. Hospital supplies are already tight, and the places are packed with patients (not jus C19 patients). We've had the whole summer lull to prepare for this and its seems as though we didn't. The longer we drag this on, the more it mutates, and the harder its going to be to stop.

 

Just my off-the-cuff opinion. I'm no expert.

[greg1647545532]

Outside the anecdotal data from the 3 MD's I have in my family, 1 in Cbus, 1 in Zainy and way up in Oregon, I use the following link to keep what tabs we as citizens can on things. The upside I'm hearing is the stays are shorter thus turning of beds is quicker. I also know that being end of year hospitals in general will get busier as elective procedures increase and as in general people are out to use their yearly benefits so covered procedures that they put off will happen in Q4.

 

https://covidactnow.org/state/OH?s=1309318

 

Didn't really answer my question though -- is there anything in the data that suggests hospitals are not going to keep filling up in the near future?

[TTQ B4U]

Didn't really answer my question though -- is there anything in the data that suggests hospitals are not going to keep filling up in the near future?

 

 

Outside history showing the spikes go up and down no as the data there doesn't track that. The .csv file only tracks what the state enters thus why I linked you to another source of information that better tracks what you're looking to see. Even there however, there's no real good source that I've found that tracks length of stay or treatments both of which are important but appear to be improving.

 

 

In the end, each local gov't, state and hospital has had time to improve their response and preparedness. I would like to think if there was good leadership they would have that all set and ready. IIRC the Convention Center beds were dismantled but I could be wrong. It's been a while since I've followed all that.

[greg1647545532]

Outside history showing the spikes go up and down no as the data there doesn't track that. The .csv file only tracks what the state enters thus why I linked you to another source of information that better tracks what you're looking to see. Even there however, there's no real good source that I've found that tracks length of stay or treatments both of which are important but appear to be improving.

 

 

In the end, each local gov't, state and hospital has had time to improve their response and preparedness. I would like to think if there was good leadership they would have that all set and ready. IIRC the Convention Center beds were dismantled but I could be wrong. It's been a while since I've followed all that.

 

All right. Well the situation looks bad, then, since hospital utilization is on the rise despite increases in treatment and decreases in length-of-stay. Assuming DeWine says as much in his address tonight, it doesn't appear as though there's any data to contradict that. Thanks.

 

Stay safe everyone.

[Mallard]

 

I do my part, wear my mask, wash my hands, etc., but I'm to the point where I feel the country should lock up the (typically) vulnerable population or those who truly want to wait it out, open the contingent healthcare facilities, lock down the borders, roll in the full time military for assistance, and everyone take off the masks and go for herd immunity. Deal with the rapid spike and the fallout from it, and lets get on with this. This dragging it on while waiting for a viable vaccine is tiring.

 

I disagree with you there. Only a small % of the population has been exposed to the virus by now and herd immunity would need 8 or 9 times as many people to be exposed. We're not even sure herd immunity is even possible. We don't know how long the antibodies remain in your system (beyond 6 months) and there are people who have been infected twice.

 

Also, the case outcome is not just recovered vs died. People that recover can also have chronic conditions that may be permanent, even in young people.

 

 

 

 

 

I, like probably many of you, am over the whole thing. Hospital supplies are already tight, and the places are packed with patients (not jus C19 patients). We've had the whole summer lull to prepare for this and its seems as though we didn't. The longer we drag this on, the more it mutates, and the harder its going to be to stop.

 

This also contradicts your opinion above. We're short on supply, short on staff, yet shooting for herd immunity will massive overrun our hospital systems, shut down essentual services, and probably destroy our economy more than phased shut downs. As it sweeps through hospital staff, EMS, fire houses, police departments, government, businesses there will be a massive number of people unable to work for 2-6 weeks, with large numbers of people dying. You've seen how it can sweep through these places now with protective measures in place. Imagine what will happen is we remove those and give up on any effort to slow down the spread.

 

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[Tractor]

There's a ton of companies here that shut down permanently because they couldn't operate at 50% capacity or the types of companies that cannot operate under distancing rules. Bars, restaurants and hotels had a rough summer and there was a lot of small family places that are gone.

[10phone2]

opening things up worked for sweden. havent hit double digit deaths for a day since july 11ish.

[Mallard]

opening things up worked for sweden. havent hit double digit deaths for a day since july 11ish.

There are other opinions on the "success" of Sweden. Also, they do have capacity restrictions at things like restaurants and cafe's, just never went on a full lock down like some other European countries. Their numbers also don't disprove the fact that many people will die, the hospitals will be overrun with cases, which means many will not even receive care if we just do noting and let it run rampant.

 

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

 

 

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[10phone2]

Yes alot of variables that are hard to decifer. One thing that covid has shown is if your not elderly and in good physical shape, then your likely going to get a quick recovery or the test was a false positive as we have seen in the ncaa football season.

[cruizin01]

Im curious of peoples opinion on getting a vaccine when its available. Assuming you haven't gotten covid yet, are you cool with taking the small chance of getting seriously ill from the disease or having lingering side effects? Or does the vaccine scare you more?

 

My wife and I differ on this scenario. But she's in healthcare and doesn't like the idea of being forced into a vaccine that doesn't have long term study work. I on the other hand feel its worth the chance with the vaccine, especially if it helps extinguish this trash fire we are in from turning into a global dumpster fire (economically speaking).