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Mallard

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Everything posted by Mallard

  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-07/tesla-planning-1-5-billion-bond-offering-to-support-model-3 Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  2. I think even with unionization it would be possible. Plants are becoming extremely automated. The biggest factor will be battery costs. Also, rumor was that the Model 3 would have a steel body, but this would GREATLY complicate the assembly plant, so I assume those rumors were false. If they are true I would kiss any dreams of building 500k vehicles in that plant goodbye. I don't see this as oil money influencing the news cycle. Vox is even a "liberal" news site that would be infatuated with all things green. I think this was a pretty realistic article questioning Tesla's valuation, from my viewpoint. And again, I'm a fan of his and I like what he's done, but I have to be realistic. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  3. This popped up today, and while I'm not with it 100%, I tend to agree with most of it. https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/26/15872468/tesla-gm-ford-valuation-justifying-disruption?utm_campaign=vox.social&utm_medium=social&utm_content=voxdotcom&utm_source=facebook Tesla's valuation makes no sense, and Elon has to continue to make aggressive promises in order to maintain this. Tesla sales are not driven by BEV demand, they are Apple-like in their cult following. So what happens if they fall out of style? This is also why others will fail spectacularly; Karma, Fisker, Faraday Future, Lucid, and probably NIO as well. What Tesla has been able to do is speed up adoption of autonomous features, which you already hit on. However, this isn't because he's ahead in development of these features. It's because they have equipped the vehicle with more hardware than necessary at launch and have flash over the air (FOTA) capability. FOTA is also made a little easier since it's a BEV too. Traditional automakers would develop the feature entirely, proved it was safe with some validation, THEN gone about the process of integrating it into a vehicle. This could put as much as 5 years between proving feasibility and rolling it out to the public. Elon has eliminated a good chunk of that by "giving away" some expensive hardware up front. Also, what the link I posted doesn't say is that Elon openly stated that he was never out to make a profit. He set out to change the auto industry and prove BEV's were viable. He has proven this (somewhat), but he also continually invests in infrastructure, which is one reason why they don't turn a profit. Infrastructure (plants, Gigafactory, Supercharger network) will always have value, and if he can get others to adopt his Supercharger framework that value will grow tremendously (which is why he opened his patents to his competitors). Even if Tesla goes bankrupt the infrastructure will remain and Elon will have met his original goal. If you do a safety analysis on Tesla's current hardware, I think you'll have a hard time believing that it will ever be anything other than a level 2 system, potentially level 3 at low speed, but level 5 is a pipe dream to everyone, let alone Tesla. The concern being, if Tesla is selling on the promise of Autopilot, what happens in ~2020 when comparable Level 2 features can be had on other mainstream vehicles? What happens if NHTSA makes them turn it off? There's no doubt that Tesla has effected the industry, but whether this will translate to sales and longevity remains to be seen. The rest of the industry has reacted and Tesla will have direct competition from established players. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  4. Depends on your definition of failure. Does Tesla continually miss estimated launch dates? Yes. Will Tesla be able to make 500k vehicles per year out of that plant? Very unlikely. Will Tesla be able to ramp up Model 3 production as fast as projected? Most likely not. Will his cars be fully autonomous (claimed "Level 5") this year? No. They will never be "Level 5." Will people cancel their Model 3 orders because they still can't afford it? Yes. Does the Model 3 deliver on the promise of a "mainstream" EV? Sort of, but it's still priced out of the mainstream market,but it's arguable. It will come down to lease prices and financing to go mainstream, but you're also asking people to spend several thousand dollars on a home charging station, which isn't in the price of the car, and many were sold on the expectation of Autopilot, not being a BEV, which they're now priced out of. Will Tesla build a car that people like? I think there is no doubt that it will receive high praise. The interior is funky, but people will overlook that and I'm sure it drives well. Is Tesla the future of motoring? Full BEVs are still being debated as the ultimate solution. Electric drive, I believe yes. Only batteries on board, I believe no. That's not head in the sand, that's reality of today's technology. Tesla sells vehicles because of their technology and acceleration as much or more than being a BEV. I'm convinced that without Autopilot and Ludicrous mode they would not nearly sell as well. No other BEV sells as well and they are chasing the mainstream market too. Keep in mind that the Model 3 is slower than the S and X, and is about as fast as a Camry V6. Also know that I actually like Elon, I like what he's doing, I like the Tesla (despite some questionable design decisions), and I hope they are successful. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  5. Lol @ "10's of millions." While 500k preorders is impressive, they are not sales, and that's a far cry from 10's of millions. The Model S and X are in stock and only sell 76k per year combined. Jeep sold 1.4 million. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  6. At the height of production for GM/Toyota that plant put out ~428k vehicles, all built on the same platform and sharing parts. He now builds 3 models there, on 3 different platforms and the S and X are far more difficult to build than a Corolla. I think 500k vehicles will be challeging to say the least. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  7. Resources in the US are limited. With today's mining operations it's unknown what volume of 300 mi BEV's is possible to supply, but they are already predicting shortages and we are only at a small fraction of total automotive sales. I think you will see some more BEVs come into the market, everything will be a HEV, and there will be a lot more PHEVs. Everyone will be adding more tech features and wireless communication. This is my prediction for 2020-2022. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  8. I think it remains to be seen how many of these deposits will be converted into actual sales. It's also hard to extrapolate the number of reservations as true demand for a $35k EV, since there is so much hype around Elon, much like the cult following of Apple. (If the Model 3 was called the Dodge 3 it would not have the same success) There are major supply chain concerns with large scale manufacturing of LiIon batteries that may keep prices high or cause shortages. They also have yet to prove it can be profitable. I think other companies are closely watching, some are following Teslas lead, some are launching sub-brands to compete directly. Electrification of powertrains is here to stay and will proliferate across all model lines, but how many are BEV vs HEV/PHEV remains to be seen. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  9. That is pretty dope, though. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  10. It's a total shit show Spicer quit because of Mooch's appointment. Preibus was fired because Mooch didn't like him. Kelly comes in as a replacement and immediately fires Mooch. It's like the Hunger Games at the White House. At least now he can take the time to be with his newborn child. Oh wait.... Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  11. The GS is not a twin turbo 3.6L, it's a NA 3.6L, which is why it's disappointing. In Europe they used to get the single turbo 2.8L V6 with AWD, while we got stuck with the Turbo Ecotec 4 in the US. Had this actually been the 3.6L TT out of the ATS I would be much more excited. As it stands it's completely underwhelming and doesn't stand out from a Camry, like a GS should. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  12. The 2015 200 was completely new and shared nothing with the earlier car, or the convertible for that matter. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  13. Looks being subjective, the last 200 was not a bad looking car, and you could get it fully loaded with a ~300hp V6, AWD, leather heated and cooled seats, heated steering wheel, Adaptive Cruise Control, 8.4" UConnect with SAT/NAV, and a panoramic sunroof for less than the base price of this Regal GS. (Cue all the Chrysler hate) Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  14. There's only a ~10HP difference, the Buick seats are nicer, and the dash looks stolen from a new Pacifica. My wife has a Regal and it's a decent car, but wouldn't be my choice of sedans. As I said, the sedan market is getting smaller every year and I doubt buyers will flock to the GS. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  15. Great powertrain, shitty interior, good chassis, numb steering, Autopilot is cool (haven't driven a HW2 car yet). It will be a year or two before mass deliveries of the Model 3 anyway. The first 30 people got their cars, all of whom are Tesla employees. No one else will probably get a car until the end of the year, and even then the production run this year will be small. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  16. Yeah, Chrysler made this car 3 years ago and no one cared. I assume the response to the Buick will be much the same, given today's sedan market. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  17. Unemployabilty benefits? Theyre probably just too lazy to find jobs. Trump has proven over and over that his word means nothing. He will say whatever it takes to get support from a particular group. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  18. Russian corruption, murder, New York real estate, and frozen assets... https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/07/bill-browders-testimony-to-the-senate-judiciary-committee/534864/?utm_source=fbb Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  19. Yeah, in their first lap they set the fastest time for any American car, and I think everything above them has a flappy paddle/DCT-like transmission. Hopefully they can get in the 6's and beat the 918, like they did at Laguna Seca. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  20. http://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/26/trump-transgender-military-ban-behind-the-scenes-240990 Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  21. http://www.roadandtrack.com/motorsports/a10349049/2017-dodge-viper-gts-r-nurburgring-ring-lap-time-farnbacher/ Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  22. Looks like they got some sort of record. Thus morning they were doing parade laps and now they are lined up for a photo shoot. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  23. It's a validation test they do on one vehicle. It's done on a real track. The original test cars had 300+HP and a LSD. They torque steered so bad with the LSD that they would change lanes uncontrollably when you floored it. They changed to an open diff and turned the power down. The front brakes are off a 300C. Ralph Gilles posted a ~1:31 on his Instagram today, and he was held up by a Miata. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
  24. Glad to see they also mentioned the 24 Hour validation of every SRT. That is something that doesn't get talked about enough. There are also lots of "track ready" cars that overheat after 1 lap that aren't hybrids that I think they were taking a shot at. Sent from my SM-G925V using Tapatalk
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