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Dr. Pomade

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  11. College Football Thread: Version 2018

    in Dumpster

    Posted

    I'm not sure I want to see them get in either unless they look like a completely different team (in a good way) the rest of the season.

     

    With that said, I think you're assuming everyone ahead of us continues to win besides the top 10 teams who play each other. I'll lay out how I think we do and how we don't get in assuming we win out.

     

    How we do get in

    Alabama - Wins out

    Clemson - Wins out

    ^ I think we need these 2 teams to win out because unless they catastrophically fail and lose 2 games, both of these teams are in with even 1 loss and all that would do is create a 2nd team potentially from the SEC getting in which I'll explain in the how we get left out scenario.

    Notre Dame - Needs to lose 1. If we have one loss and they have one loss I think we jump them.

    Oklahoma - Needs to lose one more. They still have Oklahoma State and West Virginia and if they get past those, they will probably play Texas in the Big 12 CCG. If they lose to WVU they likely won't even make the Big 12 championship game and there is no way WVU gets in over us. Oklahoma is the most important team for us to watch I think.

     

    I think we honestly just need either Oklahoma to fall one more time or Notre Dame to drop one and if we win out, we're in the playoffs in this scenario.

     

    How we don't get in

    - Alabama loses to LSU then LSU goes on to win the SEC CG (Alabama still gets in with one loss)

    - Alabama wins out but loses to the winner of UGA/UK in the SEC CG (likely UGA) and again, Alabama still gets in with one loss and so does the SEC CG winner.

    - Clemson wins out (even with a loss I think they're ahead of us)

    - Notre Dame wins out

    - Oklahoma wins out

     

    In that scenario there is no way we jump an undefeated ND team or a 1 loss Oklahoma team who's only loss was to a ranked Texas team by 3 in OT, especially if they get to avenge that loss by beating them in the Big 12 CCG. In this scenario we aren't even in the discussion. It would come down to a 1 loss Alabama, 1 loss Oklahoma and ND for who get the final 2 spots. We would finish 6th.

     

    I agree with the vast majority of your reasoning and I like your scenarios. BTW, Texas beat Oklahoma at the end of regulation, not OT.

     

    Though, for us to get in, I don't think we need both ND and Oklahoma to lose. Rather, either one of them losing will open the door for Ohio State to get in. However, if both of them lose, then, yes, I think we definitely get in. (BTW, I am assuming in this scenario that Ohio State wins out.)

     

    Like you said, Alabama needs to win out. A 1-loss Alabama team just opens the door for a second SEC team to get in.

     

    I doubt Ohio State wins out, though - especially not the way they look, all the turmoil that's occurring right now, etc. There's a good chance Michigan State beats them, NW has a great shot of beating them, and Michigan may hand them their worst loss in Ohio Stadium. Thus, I am kind of rooting for chaos, like for Alabama to lose twice (LSU this weekend and then to Auburn), Kentucky to win the SEC, Washington State to win the PAC, Northwestern to win the B1G, and West Virginia to win the Big XII. Just absolute craziness.

     

    My want scale kind of goes like this:

     

    1) Ohio State to win National Championship

    1.5) Ohio State to win NY6 bowl game

    1.75) Ohio State to win B10

    2) Alabama to NOT win the NC

    3) ND to NOT win the NC

     

    Maybe it's just me, but I see a bunch of similarities between this team and Meyer's Florida team(s) that spiraled out of control. Like, the cracks are showing and it seems like only a matter of time before the dam breaks. Hope I'm wrong.

  15. College Football Thread: Version 2018

    in Dumpster

    Posted

    As long as scUM gets past PSU in A2 after their bye this week, you all get to play a top 4-5 team for the final game of the regular season to move you back to the Big 10 championship game and into the playoff.

     

    Unless things turn around drastically and quickly, Michigan will beat Ohio State by 50.

     

    Ohio State doesn't belong anywhere near a B10 championship or the CFP. This team is a hot mess.

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