what

1 hour ago, Tonik said:

I don't know any of my passwords.

just do what i do and use a simple combination of three numbers, like 123.

perrrrrrdy

20 hours ago, Pauly said:

how much belt fuzz did you have to clean out of there?

26 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

"a large population of people that travel to/from China and Italy going under the radar for weeks are the main factors that were brought up."

If that's the case, it sounds like stricter isolation is needed for NYC and probably for a longer period.

They should consider more drastic measures like using hotels (bet they are empty right now) for isolation.  That could add thousands of beds for people that don't need ICU care, and keep them from spreading it any further.

Those people already did the damage, unknowingly, weeks ago. Containment/isolation has failed and they are hunkering down for 2 or 3 weeks of hell right now it seems.

21 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

Didn't watch his whole press conference.

Do they believe this a factor of population density alone or are their other factors at play that are specific to NYC?  

 

Population density mixed with frequently touched/high-traffic public spaces and a large population of people that travel to/from China and Italy going under the radar for weeks are the main factors that were brought up. Not in this press conference but by the female physician on Trump's team, Deborah I think.

NYC is about to be a death zone. A new peak case estimate of 14-21 days from today, with new infections doubling every 3 days. Seems the shelter-in-place order did not do enough to curb the spread, at least in NYC and surrounding areas. With the population density and the length of time this thing can live on surfaces it's not surprising. Sadly.

video for anyone interested:

1 hour ago, Tonik said:

Right up until he hinted he was really happy Mitt might have Covid. Dude is a sorry excuse for a human being.

Yeah that was shitty.

5 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

The media has been trying super hard to make that point, but...

Fauci on the other hand hasn't said that.  Here's what he did say "there isn't, fundamentally, a difference" between his view and President Donald Trump's when it comes to combatting coronavirus, saying Trump just approaches fighting the pandemic from a "hope, layperson standpoint" while he approaches it from a scientific one."

They are speaking side by in the news conferences and seem to be on the same page from what I've viewed with my own eyes.  I put more stock in that than filtering opinions of through the talking heads in the media

That was my take on it as well. Trump wants to convey hope to people saying hydroxichloroquin might be effective at treating this, Fauci agreed with him but stipulated that the drug still needs to be tested (which it is starting today, 10,000 doses going to patients in NY supposedly) to see verifiable results so the FDA can approve it as a form of treatment for dire cases. That's businessman/politician vs. doctor/scientist speak. Same idea just different approaches for different crowds. Fauci wanted to avoid people going out and buying chloroquin used for other purposes, taking it as "medicine" and dying. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/man-dies-after-ingesting-chloroquine-attempt-prevent-coronavirus-n1167166

I never thought I would say this but for the last few days at least I think Trump has been doing as good a job as anyone could in the position we are in. Nobody knows exactly how to deal with this. He seems to be listening to the people on his task force at the very least. I guess we'll see how good a job they are doing after this is all over. Maybe I'll be eating my shoe, but I hope not.

Testing to see who has it is losing out in importance every day to testing to see who has had it and is now immune. Really hope they get those antibody test kits rolled out quickly, that would give a much clearer picture of where we stand, at least in areas that aren't currently drowning in cases. If even 10 or 20% of a given population is effectively immune, that would slow the spread by quite a bit, and from yesterday's press conference it sounds like they are starting to think this spread a lot further a lot sooner than previously thought.

2 hours ago, Tpoppa said:

According to the CDC, about 7,700 people die every day in the US.  So, since the first case of COVID 19 was reported in the US (63 days), about 485,000 people have died in the US.  About 500 of those were due to COVID 19.

I realize a contagious disease can spread exponentially.  Not discounting anything, just a bit of perspective.

 

 

The death tally won't outpace total deaths from other factors but it will be enough to put a dent in the averages for this year, should things get really out of control. That said, risk of death for this overall is very low. It's just a lot higher than the other more common highly communicable diseases out and about right now.

Got my new suit in the mail. Wore it around the house for a few hours while working just to smell like I'm going riding.

Once I'm out of self quarantine I will probably do some day rides down to a park to "go walking" in SEO or something. Assuming the weather is nice and we aren't at full scale national guard deployment acting as police yet.

Asymptomatic transmission is a thing for covid19, at least that's what they've been saying for the past month or so. They seem to think you can be contagious for days before you show any sort of symptoms. Some people never show symptoms and are just carriers. Other people this thing straight up kills dead. The flu is likely to be transmitted by infected to 1.5 other people, while they estimate covid will spread to 3 other people from a single source. So at least twice as infectious and likely 20-30x more deadly than the seasonal flu, on average.

As far as cases go, the case numbers are likely very skewed as this is out in the wild but only a small amount of people are able to get tested. Once more testing starts being rolled out, expect to see the number of confirmed infected skyrocket. Most people will get over it on their own, but some wont. That "some" is the reason all of these lockdowns are being implemented. 2% of the population of Ohio is a heck of a lot of corpses.

1 minute ago, SpecialEd said:

Never been there. What's wrong with it? And are they shooting at each other with Springfield rifles?

It's a hellhole.

3 minutes ago, SpecialEd said:

Because . . . ?

because springfield I imagine.

Gonna be ordering some delivery that will last me a few days so I don't have to dip into my stockpile.

Lasagna sounds good.

Stay at home order in full: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6816974/Ohio-Stay-at-Home-order.pdf

On 3/17/2020 at 2:01 PM, Wojo72 said:

Do I get a handicap for being 225 in full gear?       I know that I could benefit from the practice on a closed course.  

 

 

I'm around 300 in gear lol

10 hours ago, motocat12 said:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/oregon-police-public-stop-calling-911-toilet-paper

These people will absolutely survive and absolutely have 20 children each.

2 hours ago, 2talltim said:

Rite Aid is the only liquor store in Knox county this is this morning...  

Probably people desperately looking for supplies who didn't go out last week or the week before to stock up. 

2 hours ago, 2talltim said:

Apparently C-19 is a cure for cancer. My wife was just told they probably going to stop all mammogram screenings until further notice. For those that don't that's what she does. There goes her pay check. Her bosses are in a meeting about it as we speak. 

This is going to be a tough next few months for most people. Things will come back once this blows by but I'm expecting a worse hit to the economy than the housing bust in 2008 in the short term. If I still have a job in a few weeks I will be surprised. 

I appreciate the updates, @NinjaDoc, I like knowing your thoughts on this as it unfolds. It has an influence on my decision-making.

22 hours ago, NinjaDoc said:

My brain had to give you guys the alarmist view point the healthcare is adopting to curb this infection. I agree with them just based on the current view point. And continue to follow the hyper precautions . But to be quite honest my heart and personal experience is telling me the virus was here even before the alarms and notoriety. Was seeing cases in hospital which was coming back negative for flu but fit all the bills for bad viral - lung  picture. Some cases even young people getting infected and presenting with caked out lungs. This was even December January period way before alarms went off. If infact that’s the case probably thousands of Ohioans already have it and it still hasn’t resulted in pandemonium. Now that we started testing for it we started finding it. If not we would have charted it as bad case of atypical flu or something. But this is just pure anecdotal personal view point of mine. 

I had a really really bad cold the week after Christmas out in New Mexico. My throat was swollen and so sore it hurt to breath. I completely lost my voice, I was coughing so much I was coughing up blood, I was also dizzy and had a mild fever. The bad portion lasted for about 5 days, but it lingered for 2 weeks or so. When this corona virus stuff started popping up in the news and they were describing the symptoms it really sounded like what I had. It's possible that it could have been, given the timeline and the fact that China had known about this since very early December but was keeping quiet. I could have passed someone from Wuhan in the airport on the way to NM and picked it up there. No idea. Or it could have just been a really bad cold. It was not the flu. 

Got word today that everyone from my company that can, is to work from home for the next 3 to 4 weeks. I'm on that list. Time to be lonely.

IMA rearsets installed on the R1

41 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

...and if your assumption is true that there really are more cases than known or reported that would mean the percentage of fatalities is even lower.  Because fatalities can be more easily counted, correct?

IE...if there were twice the cases; the fatality rate is cut in half.

They wouldnt be counted as covid19 deaths if the patient was never diagnosed with covid19

10 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

I agree that there could be more cases than reported.  I disagree with your conclusion about mortality rates.

Even if you doubled the cases in China that still 12-thousanths of a single percent in 3 months.  

I'll be very surprised of cases spread in the US at the same rate as what was 'reported' in China.

 

 

Italy is probably going to be the best estimate of what we will see here within the next 2 weeks. 

20 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

Just a bit of perspective....

China's population is approx 1.4 Billion.  In 3 months, there have about 81,000 cases which equates to 0.006% of the Chinese Population (1% of China's population would be 14,000,000)

US population is about 327 Million.  About 1,300 cases in the US which equates to 0.0004% of the US Population (1% of the US population would be 3.2 million).

That's cases not deaths.   Reason to be concerned...absolutely.  Reason to lose your fucking minds and cause an economic meltdown...absolutely fucking not.  Feel free to check my math.

 

Probably the most accurate data source available:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html?fbclid=IwAR2B5QOYzmsIVK8KjrziR6idZgbXNFqT1xkUb2NtUD9a1gcWYpk4FJ_BmuY

The issue is theres no way to know who actually has it out of the wider population due to diagnosis guidelines being fairly lax in some areas and testing not being widely available. They will only list cases they can verify. If you only have 1000 test kits you can only verify 1000 cases even if it is widespread. The overall case numbers are widely useless. The only meaningful data I can see them getting from the current public numbers is the mortality rate from proven cases, and mortality demographics.