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DeWine just did the same. F you, PA!

Ah, copy. It's on YouTube but I've taken to reading the summaries on r/Ohio. I think it was last Wednesday there were a bunch of protesters outside wherever they're doing these daily briefings, I guess all upset about the government tyranny here and demanding the lockdown be lifted. IIRC DeWine didn't attack them directly but did address some of the growing dissent. The tough thing is we're flying blind at the moment, the models say we've peaked or will peak soon but you don't know when you've peaked until it's in the past and you can look back and say "Yup, 2 weeks ago we peaked." The models say Ohio is going to peak earlier than other states, and so it's not even our peak we need to be worried about -- opening up travel when Kentucky and Indiana are exploding in cases is problematic. So their message for right now is basically, "We have an exit strategy, we're constantly revising it, we need tests in order to execute the exit strategy and we're still working on procuring them, but at the moment and until 1 May y'all just need to relax and keep doing what you're doing. That's the cliffs notes version at least.

Do you watch any of DeWine's daily conferences? You're not suggesting anything that they haven't already discussed at great length. Right now one of the big limfacs is testing -- there just aren't enough tests, antibody or otherwise, to do contact tracing and/or to figure out who's "probably immune" and can go back to work. The federal government really could have gotten ahead of the curve here on producing tests but they didn't. Anyways, yes, plans to "reopen" are on paper, and people are having conversations about it, and here in Ohio they're even keeping us citizens briefed on some of those details.

*acting SecNav, because the other SecNav was forced out for not caving to pressure when Trump was unhappy with the way his boy Eddie "War Crimes" Gallagher was treated.

Sailor on USSTR dies of COVID-19. This whole situation is so fucked.

Are you sure they haven't just bought into the media panic? Maybe their parents are alive and they're just overreacting. (sorry for their respective losses, I don't mean to make light)

On the AF Reserve side of my life, all drill and annual tour activity has been postponed until June 4th at the earliest. I haven't shaved since March 8th, I'm going to have a mighty coronabeard by the time I have to go back. If I stick it out this will be the longest I've ever gone without shaving.

It's a real study done by real epidemiologists, so while it hasn't been peer reviewed it does offer a promising glimpse into the possible. Of course, Germans have free health care and aren't as fat or unhealthy as Americans so it's unlikely that the .37% death rate will hold true everywhere, but promising nonetheless.

:lol:

Well said. I'm not watching the daily updates live anymore but just following along with the real-time updates that u/PeaceIsSoftcoreWar has been posting on reddit. Seems like the governor directly addressed some of the concerns that have popped up in this thread in the last couple of days. These are not exacts quotes but paraphrased (from that link): I have full faith that DeWine is doing everything he can to balance the needs of the medical community and those currently out of work. I think we just need to give his team time to see how the next week or so shakes out. It's funny, a week ago I asked my wife if she'd vote for DeWine after all this (I consider myself a left-leaning libertarian, she's a tree-hugging liberal). She said, "Well, it depends on who he's running against," and I agreed. Every day that goes by is solidifying my support for him. He really is sticking by his principles through all of this.

Damn, I didn't realize the stripper inspecting industry was so volatile. :)

I think some of the non-DeWine red states are going to start rolling things back, it'll be interesting to see if there's a resurgence or if voluntary measures will suffice. I'm sure people have seen this out of Kansas:

They "touted" the official white house estimate? And that was wrong of them? What else did you want them to do, not report what the white house was saying?

Yes, anyone who didn't listen to the experts should be voted the fuck out of office. That includes Trump, De Blasio, any democrats you want. Blanket policy, I'm fine with that. Fuck em all.

Please just keep in mind a few things: 1) The death toll if we did nothing was predicted to be 1.5 million. Preventing a 50% increase in our annual death toll was certainly worth shutting down for, and even if that doesn't rustle your jimmies for the sake of not watching people die, it should rustle your jimmies because 1.5 million extra people dying would have been pretty bad for the economy as well. 2) The epidemiologists said at the beginning that if we do a good job it will look like we overreacted. Keep in mind point (1) above. Also keep in mind that we don't have to wonder what it would have looked like if we'd done less, all we have to do is look across the pond to Italy and Spain. That's also what could happen if we go back to normal too soon. 3) We're not at the peak of even the updated models, which should arrive in various states between now and the end of the month (Ohio sooner than others, thankfully). PPE supplies are running low here in Ohio and we're in a good spot compared to a lot of places. We are not out of the woods yet. Let's just keep our dick in our pants for a couple more weeks and see how things go. Maybe when the economic costs come crashing down people will remember some assclown claiming this was all a democratic hoax. It's sad that people who had to be dragged kicking and screaming into the reality of 1.5 million dead have, in a matter of 3 weeks, after actual adults listened to actual experts and turned 1.5 million into a "mere" 100,000, forgotten why we had to do this in the first place. Let's just keep things nice and slow, is all I'm saying. Listen to the experts.

The people out of work right now got dealt cards too...

I don't think lots of people dying is inevitable; with ample testing, targeted quarantines, and some smart changes to the way we do things, we can keep it at bay. I do not understand this sudden push for everyone to suck it up, get sick, and get back to work. There is room for middle ground if we listen to the experts and make smart decisions about how and when we begin to relax our containment measures. I mean, this virus is like 6 months old, we've barely studied it; we don't know if it's going to mutate, we don't know if getting sick once means a lifetime immunity.... we need more data. Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

I thought this was interesting. This is the model that looks very good for Ohio now. So that gives us a clue as to what the decision makers might be looking at.

Fantastic news today about Ohio's efforts and the effect on the curve. Acton says hospitals will be able to handle the peak. Great day to be an Ohioan.

Daily case rate holding flat, hospitalizations/deaths slightly up but the updated models are now showing a big improvement, under 600 deaths projected by IMHE. Fantastic news if it holds. (For Ohio)

My personal guess is that the stay-at-home order will be lifted before Memorial Day, possibly May 1st but that all depends on what the next 2 weeks look like. However, DeWine will instruct businesses to only allow non-essential employees back to work if they're unable to do their jobs from home. There will be guidelines for all businesses about how to open back up while maintaining a clean environment. Public gatherings, however, will be banned through the summer. Schools won't reopen until fall. Nothing will go back to normal for a while; the covid19 death toll will start to tick back up and it will be a game of managing hospital capacity vs economic stagnation. Even healthy people who get it say it SUCKS as an illness, like a flu on steroids, so any notion that we all just need to catch it and move on with our lives will start falling apart once a bunch of us have lived through the misery. I imagine next winter, barring a vaccine, we'll all know someone personally who needed to be hospitalized, and that's going to be terrifying for a lot of people. My wife has asthma and while the mortality rate for a 40 year old with asthma isn't terrible, I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up in a hospital for observation if she catches it, so we're obviously going to do everything we can to keep it out of the house.

Tucker Carlson needs to shut the fuck up.

It's worth noting that Ohio is backdating their numbers on that site, you'll notice everything from 3/25 onward is marked with (*Preliminary). Those numbers will go up as they get test confirmation and data coming in. The difference isn't insubstantial, e.g. on 3/28 they announced 1406 known cases, that number is now up to 3152 as you note. Numbers as they were announced on day of: March 27: 1,137 March 28: 1,406 +269 March 29: 1,653 +247 March 30: 1,933 +280 March 31: 2,199 +266 April 1: 2,547 +348 April 2: 2,902 +355 April 3: 3,312 +410 April 4: 3,739 +427 April 5: 4,043 +304 April 6: 4,450 +407 The rate of increase does appear to be leveling off, which is a good sign that our measures are working, but we also need to be mindful that hospitalizations will lag behind -- Boris Johnson was diagnosed 10 days before he was admitted, for example -- and deaths will of course lag behind hospitalizations.

Read up on strict scrutiny. I don't know the answer but that's the standard a legal challenge would have to survive.

Fair point. The model levels off but it says nothing about what happens after that. DeWine's obviously not committing to anything past 1 May and he's got access to a lot better models than we do. It seems likely at this point that at some point in May or June the restrictions will slowly be lifted -- as they are, we'll see an uptick in cases at each step of the way, and at that point it will be a game of balancing social distancing measures against hospital capacity. They're saying that 60 to 70 percent of us will eventually get it and nobody knows if that's this year, next few years, or just a new normal for the rest of our lives until there's a vaccine. All we know for now is that it's very important to weather the next month.