Interesting: http://accuscore.com/articles/nba-articles/howard-vs.-shaq/ Howard vs. Shaq Jonathan Lee AccuScore AnalystView Blog Dwight Howard is in just his fourth season out of Southwest Atlanta Christian Academy, and he has the Magic in first place in the Southeast Division two games ahead of the Washington Wizards. Howard is having a dominant year averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, steals, blocks, and minutes. His dominating play and overwhelming physical presence in the middle has conjured up memories of another uber-athletic number one pick of the Magic who redefined what a big man could do. That man of course is future Hall of Famer Shaquille O’Neal. While Howard has clearly taken a step forward this season to become the best center in the NBA, just how good has he been? While his numbers have been impressive it does not seem his reputation as a player has reached the heights as O’Neal did during his time in Orlando. Having jumped straight to the NBA from high school Howard is just 22 years old this season the same age O’Neal was in his third season out of LSU (‘94-‘95). That year Shaq led the Magic to first place with a record of 57-25, and an appearance in the NBA Finals. While Howard has a long way to go to match O’Neal’s postseason success statistically he compares very comparably to the former MVP. These statistics show both players’ averages at the same age (22). O’Neal has the edge in points, offensive rebounds, and assists while having fewer turnovers. Howard appears to be the better defensive player with the clear edge on the defensive boards and blocks. He is also shooting better than O’Neal both from the field and (predictably) the free throw line. In 1994-95 season the Magic averaged 111 points while giving up 104 points for a total of 215 points per game. This season Orlando is scoring 103 points while giving up 100 for a total of 203 points per contest. This means that the 2007-08 version of the Magic are playing a roughly 94% of the pace of the 1994-95 version. When Shaq’s averages are adjusted by 94% to account for pace his stat numbers look more like this and are more useful for comparison purposes: This gives an even bigger edge to Howard on the boards while shrinking the gap between the two players’ offensive numbers. AccuScore simulated this year’s Orlando Magic against the top teams in the Eastern Conference both home and on the road. In one scenario the roster was left as is with Howard at center, and a second scenario was simulated with a 22-year old O’Neal in the middle. In order to properly assess O’Neal’s performance we do not simply look at per-game averages or even averages adjusted for pace but rather by carefully assessing key simulation parameters such as: the percentage of team possessions used, percentage of rebounding opportunities taken by O’Neal, and several others factors. The most difficult thing to gauge is the impact of the different cast members O’Neal played alongside in 1994-95 such as power forward Horace Grant. The current Magic team is primarily composed of perimeter players with Howard the sole true inside player. Both forward spots are manned by players standing 6’10’’ but both Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu operate primarily on the perimeter and are weak rebounders. Howard is left inside by himself free to clean up the boards. So far this season Orlando is fairly even on the boards as their opponents. In 1994-95 the Magic had Grant, a strong rebounding player at the four position. Grant’s presence allowed Shaq to worry less about defensive rebounding as it was not critical for him to grab every single carom. In that year the Magic out-rebounded its foes by three per contest. In O’Neal’s first two seasons in the NBA his rebounding average was two more than in ’94-’95. Those seasons he did not play alongside Grant. If this information is taken into account Howard’s edge on the boards is mitigated when looking at the composition of the roster. In these key Eastern Conference match-ups the Magic (who have been better on the road than at home this year) win 51% of the simulations Dwight Howard at center and the same percentage with O’Neal manning the middle. Here are the two players’ simulation averages in those games: The simulation averages of the two players indicate that both shoot below their normal FG% because of the quality of the opponent defenses. Howard really is the better defensive player when measured by defensive rebounding and blocks. However, O’Neal is clearly superior offensively averaging 3.2 more points and 0.7 more assists per simulation. This offensive advantage offsets Howard’s defensive advantage. The edge in points is not the only relevant element to look at when making this comparison. O’Neal has long been known as an excellent passing big man, and in his prime he demanded double teams whenever he touched the ball in the post. His passing acumen would be especially good when paired with the dead-eye shooting of Lewis and Turkoglu at forward and Keith Bogans at guard. O’Neal also has a much more natural feel for the game offensively which gives him a significant edge in the turnover department. Howard averages nearly twice as many turnovers per simulation than O’Neal (3.9 to 2.2). In the end the differences in winning percentage with either player are so small that it is not clear if one player provides an advantage over the other. The Magic win the same percentage (51%) of simulated contests against the Eastern Conference’s best, but Howard does give his team the edge in four match-ups compared to just two for O’Neal. The fact that this comparison is even so close is a testament to the growth and progress of Howard’s game. It may be time to start talking about the young center as a dominating player in the same breath as O’Neal. Howard’s main weakness right now is his turnovers. Continued improvement in that department and the development of go-to moves in the post will push Howard from a dominant physical and defensive presence into an all-around force capable of controlling games from the paint. Ultimately the differences in winning percentage are so small that you do not want to say one player provides a clear advantage over the other. You might give Howard the slightest edge because he helps the Magic win a higher percentage of games in 4 match-ups vs. just 2 advantages for Shaq.
