smokin5s Posted April 6, 2020 Report Share Posted April 6, 2020 It amazes me that otherwise intelligent people who have no problem managing their own 401ks can't look at a trend line and figure out the obvious conclusions. This website has been making the rounds, it's one of the models Ohio is using to make decisions. It does predict a flattening off of new cases and deaths, based on our current policies, with the "light at the end of the tunnel" being around mid-May, May 15th-ish. At that point nearly 2000 Ohioans will have died. No big deal, right? That's only 2/3 of a 9/11. Except we know that for every death we have about 10 hospitalizations. That's 20,000 hospital beds, and upthread someone bragged that we should have 9,500 free at any given moment (which I doubt is true, sadly). 9,500 minus 20,000 means 10,500 getting sent home to die, or being treated in makeshift hospitals. If we can't save those 10,500 people that's like, three 9/11s! We're just at the beginning of a big ramp up, meaning the virus is just starting to hit critical mass. According to that model, those 9,500 empty beds that we may or may not have will be completely filled up on April 19th, 2 weeks from today. The two weeks after that are going to be an absolute shitshow. So let's just do what we're doing for another month, we can manage that in the greatest country on Earth, don't you think? In terms of Covid-19 information I'm getting everything from DeWine/Acton and the WH task force. They talk numbers a lot because it's a concrete way to make people realize the gravity of the next month, which might just scare people into not being morons. If we're talking shark attacks or immigrant crime I'll be right there with you blaming the media for blowing shit way out of proportion, but in this case all they're doing is reporting on what's being said by our (Republican) elected leaders and their respective teams. Journalists are not qualified to develop medical treatments so I'm not sure what else you want them to do. very true, my sister was turned away over the weekend when she is having problems breathing until her tests results come in next week. The hospital can see her labored breathing but yet choose to do nothing without a confirmed case... This makes absolutely no sense Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRocket1647545505 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 https://www.10tv.com/article/british-prime-minister-boris-johnson-moved-icu-after-coronavirus-symptoms-worsened-2020-apr Nice knowing you, Boris. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TTQ B4U Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 So I've been keeping track of Ohio's numbers for the past few days, and our state does seem to be "flattening the curve": 4043 on 4/5 3739 on 4/4 3312 on 4/3 2904 on 4/2 2400 on 4/1 I need to do some more research and see what I can find for the days prior to 4/1. Yep. Total Cases in Ohio based on https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards 3/27 2950 3/28 3152 +202 3/29 3310 +158 3/30 3543 +233 3/31 3786 +243 4/1 3972 +186 4/2 4150 +178 4/3 4318 +168 4/4 4407 +89 4/5 4450 +43 4/6 4450 +0 4/7 fingers crossed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1647545532 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Yep. Total Cases in Ohio based on https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards It's worth noting that Ohio is backdating their numbers on that site, you'll notice everything from 3/25 onward is marked with (*Preliminary). Those numbers will go up as they get test confirmation and data coming in. The difference isn't insubstantial, e.g. on 3/28 they announced 1406 known cases, that number is now up to 3152 as you note. Numbers as they were announced on day of: March 27: 1,137 March 28: 1,406 +269 March 29: 1,653 +247 March 30: 1,933 +280 March 31: 2,199 +266 April 1: 2,547 +348 April 2: 2,902 +355 April 3: 3,312 +410 April 4: 3,739 +427 April 5: 4,043 +304 April 6: 4,450 +407 The rate of increase does appear to be leveling off, which is a good sign that our measures are working, but we also need to be mindful that hospitalizations will lag behind -- Boris Johnson was diagnosed 10 days before he was admitted, for example -- and deaths will of course lag behind hospitalizations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mace1647545504 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Dr. Acton yesterday said that she may and I'm emphasize MAY have some better news in the next day or 2. Lets's keep our fingers crossed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RC K9 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Regardless of your politics, I feel there is some good data in here to look at, as well as some perspective I can't disagree with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1647545532 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Tucker Carlson needs to shut the fuck up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exodus Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Do we honestly believe we will be going back to our offices by May 1st? Or do we think we will be under lock down for longer? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wease Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Do we honestly believe we will be going back to our offices by May 1st? Or do we think we will be under lock down for longer? I don't give a fuck, as long as they open my gym back up... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1647545532 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Do we honestly believe we will be going back to our offices by May 1st? Or do we think we will be under lock down for longer? My personal guess is that the stay-at-home order will be lifted before Memorial Day, possibly May 1st but that all depends on what the next 2 weeks look like. However, DeWine will instruct businesses to only allow non-essential employees back to work if they're unable to do their jobs from home. There will be guidelines for all businesses about how to open back up while maintaining a clean environment. Public gatherings, however, will be banned through the summer. Schools won't reopen until fall. Nothing will go back to normal for a while; the covid19 death toll will start to tick back up and it will be a game of managing hospital capacity vs economic stagnation. Even healthy people who get it say it SUCKS as an illness, like a flu on steroids, so any notion that we all just need to catch it and move on with our lives will start falling apart once a bunch of us have lived through the misery. I imagine next winter, barring a vaccine, we'll all know someone personally who needed to be hospitalized, and that's going to be terrifying for a lot of people. My wife has asthma and while the mortality rate for a 40 year old with asthma isn't terrible, I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up in a hospital for observation if she catches it, so we're obviously going to do everything we can to keep it out of the house. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeitgeist57 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Tucker lost me at 1:00 mark. His banner message at the bottom - "We're Making Decisions Based On Limited Data" - means he shouldn't be questioning the quarantine as he doesn't have a better solution. He's a bad op-ed actor and his comments should not be misconstrued as news or expert advice...yet many people - including Trump - are thinking too much on his commentary. He discusses the prolonged economic damage of the quarantine, and questions both it's effectiveness and suggests targeted quarantining. I can't help but think if a Democratic President was at the helm of this pandemic, and the markets were tanking, Tucker's narrative would be geared towards shaming anyone that suggested going back to work, as it would expose Americans to deadly risks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillbot Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 My personal guess is that the stay-at-home order will be lifted before Memorial Day, possibly May 1st but that all depends on what the next 2 weeks look like. However, DeWine will instruct businesses to only allow non-essential employees back to work if they're unable to do their jobs from home. There will be guidelines for all businesses about how to open back up while maintaining a clean environment. Public gatherings, however, will be banned through the summer. Schools won't reopen until fall. Nothing will go back to normal for a while; the covid19 death toll will start to tick back up and it will be a game of managing hospital capacity vs economic stagnation. Even healthy people who get it say it SUCKS as an illness, like a flu on steroids, so any notion that we all just need to catch it and move on with our lives will start falling apart once a bunch of us have lived through the misery. I imagine next winter, barring a vaccine, we'll all know someone personally who needed to be hospitalized, and that's going to be terrifying for a lot of people. My wife has asthma and while the mortality rate for a 40 year old with asthma isn't terrible, I wouldn't be surprised if she ends up in a hospital for observation if she catches it, so we're obviously going to do everything we can to keep it out of the house. This is my thought as well. If they can manage antibody testing and ramp up testing overall, those who have already had it will be allowed to return to normal. Those that haven't will remain isolated until a vaccine is available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1647545532 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Daily case rate holding flat, hospitalizations/deaths slightly up but the updated models are now showing a big improvement, under 600 deaths projected by IMHE. Fantastic news if it holds. (For Ohio) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1647545532 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Fantastic news today about Ohio's efforts and the effect on the curve. Acton says hospitals will be able to handle the peak. Great day to be an Ohioan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mace1647545504 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Man I don't know about going back may 1, but maybe. I think more like may 15 or june 1 just to be safe. If we let people go back too soon, someone who is asymptomatic will spread it and we will be at this point in time. I think the government will err on the side of safety. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerrodh Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 The "best case" scenario by May 1st is they might open up specific sectors or reduce the overall restrictions. I feel a vast majority of places will be on lockdown well into May or even June. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KillJoy Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Do we honestly believe we will be going back to our offices by May 1st? Or do we think we will be under lock down for longer? Honestly, I can see the Stay At Home Order being in action throughout the Summer. I hope I am wrong, but, unless the Nation goes into the same situation, this thing is gonna pop back up, and most likely get worse. KillJoy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10phone2 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 Honestly, I can see the Stay At Home Order being in action throughout the Summer. I hope I am wrong, but, unless the Nation goes into the same situation, this thing is gonna pop back up, and most likely get worse. KillJoy I am worried about the impact of over use of hand sanitizer and cleaning products ends up making next years flu worse. We will hit july 4th and we all will have moved on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg1647545532 Posted April 7, 2020 Report Share Posted April 7, 2020 I thought this was interesting. The model makes some key assumptions about how state leaders will act — and depending on what they do, the picture could change. First, it assumes that all states will continue social distancing through the end of May — which is longer than the White House has asked Americans to practice social distancing. This is the model that looks very good for Ohio now. So that gives us a clue as to what the decision makers might be looking at. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillbot Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 I am worried about the impact of over use of hand sanitizer and cleaning products ends up making next years flu worse. We will hit july 4th and we all will have moved on. I try to limit my hand sanitizer use. I’m a big fan of howie mandell and his story on what hand sanitizer did to him has me weary of overuse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hwilli1647545487 Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 I try to limit my hand sanitizer use. I’m a big fan of howie mandell and his story on what hand sanitizer did to him has me weary of overuse. I'm not familiar. Any desire to elaborate? I also just wash my hand more, but when we are forced out in public (every two weeks or so) we use saniizer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gillbot Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 I'm not familiar. Any desire to elaborate? I also just wash my hand more, but when we are forced out in public (every two weeks or so) we use saniizer... I can’t remember if it was in one of his books or when he was on stern but he talked about the damage over washing and hand sanitizer did to his skin and hands. I’ll google and see what I can come up with but it escapes me right now. Old age n shit. Edit: still googling but I think it was on stern where he talked about his hands being raw and needing gloves all the time. He had to have skin grafts or something to help repair the skin on his hands. "I would constantly be soaked with Purell. And I also had my friend as a surgeon and I had a surgical scrub that I would do before and after the show," he said. "My hands were raw and I had no antibodies and I started getting warts and it was -- I was a mess." From here: https://abcnews.go.com/2020/howie-mandel-public-obsessive-compulisve-disorder-fear-germs/story?id=9153966 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeitgeist57 Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Exodus Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Honestly for me, I haven't really changed much of my sanitizing routine. I typically wash my hands after any dirty activity at home like cleaning, taking out the trash, etc. I don't really use hand sanitizer at home, have only ever really used it in 3rd world countries or at outdoor events where I can't readily wash my hands. I have however been using it more when I go into a restaurant, store, or work that has a dispenser on the wall, when I didn't really do that before. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buck531 Posted April 8, 2020 Report Share Posted April 8, 2020 Someone stole the hand sanitizer from our porta-shitter in the driveway at our house. Fucking morons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.