Coronavirus II

[Forrest Gump 9]

In case of anyone needs testing, OSU medical building at the corner of Ackerman and 315 has a drive thru and the place always looked empty. Don’t go to the main campus.

[Mallard]

I think more to the point... <climbs up on high horse>

 

 

 

People who study communicable diseases are experts in examining these sorts of numbers. They're looking at the numbers and saying, "Hey, there's a spike in cases, the disease is spreading again."

 

 

 

Now, there's a null hypothesis here -- maybe there aren't any more sick people than there were before, maybe we're just finding them because we're testing more! But this is such an *obvious* possibility that *of course* the experts who have looked at communicable diseases for years or decades have considered it. And if they're saying that's not the reason for the spike, to doubt them is to call them incompetent. This is the sort of head smacking moment I just don't understand.

 

 

 

It's like when I was a kid and I couldn't figure out auto racing -- "If some of the cars are going faster than others, then why don't the slower cars just push down the gas pedal more!?" I seriously thought that, because all I knew was that speed was tied directly to gas pedals. Why didn't these professional auto racers consider this bone-headedly simple solution to their problems!?

 

 

 

People (cough *Trump* cough) are so desperate to be *right*, though, that when presented with contrary data they MUST find an alternate explanation -- either the experts ARE incompetent, or worse, they're on the take! It's all a conspiracy!

 

 

 

Sometimes an expert opinion is just, you know, the correct answer. So it boggles my mind that so much hay is being made about "well it's just because we're testing more!" as if nobody has thought to check that.

 

 

 

<climbs down off high horse>

I stated that because we know there were uncounted cases in March when the shutdown began, but more people who have mild symptoms or can ride this out at home are now being counted. The raw number of cases today cannot be compared to the raw number we had counted in March, but the rate of increase day-to-day, week-to-week can be a good indicator of the rate of change within the community.

 

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[10phone2]

they really haven't. Wife and I laughed about how packed the stores and parks were when at it's peak. Also factor out nursing homes and it's still not alot per person for a population.

 

I am curring to see whats behind District of Columbia having an increase per person but a decline in new cases from the link Furlough gave.

[Tractor]

There's no way they "thought to check that". Even if they did politicians are always stuck in the rock and hard place situation of keeping themselves looking competent and voters happy. Through that lens things get distorted and decisions get made to err on the side of "I need to look good" and the other guy needs to look bad. Happens on both sides and we are caught in the middle trying to understand things that the majority can't understand.

[xlr8tn]

I think more to the point... <climbs up on high horse>

 

People who study communicable diseases are experts in examining these sorts of numbers. They're looking at the numbers and saying, "Hey, there's a spike in cases, the disease is spreading again."

 

Now, there's a null hypothesis here -- maybe there aren't any more sick people than there were before, maybe we're just finding them because we're testing more! But this is such an *obvious* possibility that *of course* the experts who have looked at communicable diseases for years or decades have considered it. And if they're saying that's not the reason for the spike, to doubt them is to call them incompetent. This is the sort of head smacking moment I just don't understand.

 

It's like when I was a kid and I couldn't figure out auto racing -- "If some of the cars are going faster than others, then why don't the slower cars just push down the gas pedal more!?" I seriously thought that, because all I knew was that speed was tied directly to gas pedals. Why didn't these professional auto racers consider this bone-headedly simple solution to their problems!?

 

People (cough *Trump* cough) are so desperate to be *right*, though, that when presented with contrary data they MUST find an alternate explanation -- either the experts ARE incompetent, or worse, they're on the take! It's all a conspiracy!

 

Sometimes an expert opinion is just, you know, the correct answer. So it boggles my mind that so much hay is being made about "well it's just because we're testing more!" as if nobody has thought to check that.

 

<climbs down off high horse>

 

I've thought for awhile now that testing is a terrible way to judge case numbers because you're not testing everyone....you're picking and choosing who you test which severely skews the results in one direction. I'm not sure there's 1 solid way to judge increases but for me the most telling is hospitalizations and even that doesn't factor in asymptomatic or people that are not yet sick enough for the hospital. I try to look at all the trends and they'll start to tell a.story. if everything is trending up that tells you everything you need to know. Because of bias you can't really trust what anyone tells you right now. We're just trying to make the best decisions we can for our family right now which means we err on the side of caution. Masks in our limited forays into public and no large groups period.

[greg1647545532]

Dr. Fauci is not a politician. If he says this surge of infections is concerning, I see no reason not to take that at face value. You wanna call Fauci and tell him maybe it's not disturbing because he didn't think to check if the surge is just the result of increased testing? He'd probably be happy to get such expert advice.

[Smokey]

If more testing were the sole cause for increased new cases you’d see the positivity rate go down. For some states with small increases that’s showing true. For the states that are having current case surges that is absolutely not true.

 

There also differences if you’re looking at the nation as a whole or states individually as the NE is calming down, Midwest pretty steady, and South and West coasts going thru surges.

 

These statistics get used in different ways by different people to fit their message, but in what I’ve seen CA, TX, AZ, and FL are definitely spiking and it’s not just more testing.

[Wease]

No one should be surprised at all that we have more cases. Nor should anyone be mad about it or looking for other data to support their narrative. However, if we did what we set out to do (PPE, get hospitals ready, etc.) then we should be ready for this. I've said a few times that the Convention Center has been sitting empty with 100+ hospital beds since early April. Still not being used. I think Columbus is ready and has been ready.

 

I also believe that if you're not in the danger zone for it, then move on with your life, wear a mask in public enclosed places if that's what makes people happy, etc.

[greg1647545532]

I also believe that if you're not in the danger zone for it, then move on with your life, wear a mask in public enclosed places if that's what makes people happy, etc.

 

That's all well and good until you have appendicitis and can't get into a hospital because it's overrun with covid patients.

[Wease]

That's all well and good until you have appendicitis and can't get into a hospital because it's overrun with covid patients.

 

Sorry, perhaps I didn't explain properly: The hospital bound COVID patients by and large have been the elderly or those that have a number of other health issues. Those are the people that still need to keep away from others. The rest of us can keep on with life, as long as we follow the new guidelines of social distancing, which includes keeping distance, masks indoors in crowded areas, etc.

[Otis Nice]

 

Glad I don't live in the south.

 

People are so desperate to be *right*, though, that when presented with contrary data they MUST find an alternate explanation --

 

Oooh...I like that. I'm saving that for later use. Prob on a CR political thread or something.

 

You wanna call Fauci and tell him maybe it's not disturbing because he didn't think to check if the surge is just the result of increased testing?

 

For 20 bucks I'll call the guy a chicken fucker.

 

I also believe that if you're not in the danger zone for it, then move on with your life, wear a mask in public enclosed places if that's what makes people happy, etc.

 

...life, liberty, and the pursuit of other people's happiness. 'Murica.

 

That's all well and good until you have appendicitis and can't get into a hospital because it's overrun with covid patients.

 

Just don't get that. It's easy.

 

Sorry, perhaps I didn't explain properly: The hospital bound COVID patients by and large have been the elderly or those that have a number of other health issues. Those are the people that still need to keep away from others. The rest of us can keep on with life, as long as we follow the new guidelines of social distancing, which includes keeping distance, masks indoors in crowded areas, etc.

 

Get your logic up out of here. No room for it.

[spankis]

Food for thought for those considering themselves and family to be in the "not at risk" crowd:

 

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/lifelong-lung-damage-the-serious-covid-19-complication-that-can-hit-people-in-their-20s

 

BBC has put similar info out, as has Fauci in recent days. Choose your source.

[Mallard]

https://asm.org/Press-Releases/2020/MMR-Vaccine-Could-Protect-Against-the-Worst-Sympto

 

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[Tractor]

If more testing were the sole cause for increased new cases you’d see the positivity rate go down. For some states with small increases that’s showing true. For the states that are having current case surges that is absolutely not true.

 

There also differences if you’re looking at the nation as a whole or states individually as the NE is calming down, Midwest pretty steady, and South and West coasts going thru surges.

 

These statistics get used in different ways by different people to fit their message, but in what I’ve seen CA, TX, AZ, and FL are definitely spiking and it’s not just more testing.

 

Not necessarily, if the spread is asymptomatic for the most part then your gonna see more positives but that doesn't have to be a bad thing. That just means more testing more positives.

 

We can all argue this day and night but the bottom line is if you don't test everyone and retest often then the data we get down to the masses is pointless in our discussions both ways.

[Tractor]

My issues with the experts and the data is that it seems the politicians are using the same data I'm getting to base decisions. I don't see anything pointing to them getting better information and likely are reacting to news.

[greg1647545532]

My issues with the experts and the data is that it seems the politicians are using the same data I'm getting to base decisions. I don't see anything pointing to them getting better information and likely are reacting to news.

 

Examples?

[Smokey]

Not necessarily, if the spread is asymptomatic for the most part then your gonna see more positives but that doesn't have to be a bad thing. That just means more testing more positives.

 

We can all argue this day and night but the bottom line is if you don't test everyone and retest often then the data we get down to the masses is pointless in our discussions both ways.

 

The asymptotic patients would be great news, and may be happening places, but the rise in hospitalizations in those hot states seem to indicate that’s not what’s occurring in those areas.

[Mallard]

Asymptomatic people wouldn't be getting tested, at least in large numbers, so I wouldn't assume that's of any significance in the rising case count.

 

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[Tractor]

Examples?

 

Head under a rock much?😀

[greg1647545532]

Head under a rock much?😀

 

Humor me, I don't get out much.

[10phone2]

greg what you recommend as a solution? its a catch 22 of slow economy vs increasing case.

[Tractor]

Asymptomatic people wouldn't be getting tested, at least in large numbers, so I wouldn't assume that's of any significance in the rising case count.

 

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So the virus can be a wide spectrum from "asymptomatic" all the way to "dead in a couple weeks".

 

This could be causing people who are symptomatic, but just having minor symptoms to get to a doctor for a test. People who are being cautious which I don't blame anyone for. This does however have the possibly unintended result in messing with the data. We don't get to know how many test positive vs how many are experiencing symptoms that matter.

 

Personally I'm very at risk however, if I come down with any symptoms at all it would have to be extremely bad before I would ever show up at a doctors office, that's just how I am. I'd also never miss work ever for a cold and I'm self employed and don't have anyone to make me miss work. I spend nearly every day of my life pretty run down, sick and wondering when its gonna take the turn for the worse and I'm basically done, but in the mean time I'm doing what I can to work and to play.

[Tractor]

Humor me, I don't get out much.

 

I'm just playing, but seriously we have two completely different opinions on the world. I personally distrust every single thing I ever hear from any news source on both sides and any experts they might have because I've been around a while and I was a Rush Limbaugh listener for over 10 years and then NPR, BBC etc and I see the problems on both sides. I guess you could say that my political affiliation is now Independent, but I do still believe in free markets however our markets are anything but free. Our political system is completely locked down by both sides and so polarized that nothing gets done and they just play games reacting to every situation as it comes up trying to spin things to their respective favors keeping the masses in the dark and hating each other in order to maintain control.

 

So having said that, my examples would be basically everything said about the entire corona virus situation from both sides. All crap, the truth is somewhere in the middle like always and the whole thing sucks for us all from several directions.

[greg1647545532]

So having said that, my examples would be basically everything said about the entire corona virus situation from both sides. All crap, the truth is somewhere in the middle like always and the whole thing sucks for us all from several directions.

 

Hey, I get it, there's a lot of hucksters and con-men out there. It's a confusing space to navigate.

 

You'll notice that in the last few pages, my sources have been:

 

A direct link to CDC guidance

A direct link to a hospital group's own data on ICU capacity

An analysis by myself of testing data pulled directly from the Texas department of of health

The direct congressional testimony of Dr. Fauci, the nation's premier expert on communicable diseases, which I also watched live.

 

Other than the last one being hosted by the Beeb, there is 0 "media" involved in any of that. I go out of my way to view and link direct, primary sources when available.

 

In any case, there are very few restrictions left in this country, so "the politicians" have basically relegated themselves to supporting their public health systems. That's why when you say, "I think the politicians are listening to the media," I don't think it's too much to ask, Which politicians? Which actions do you think are driven by the media?

 

I think a bunch of politicians lifted restrictions prematurely due to public demand, but that was hardly the media -- people were literally protesting with guns. Trump was literally tweeting "liberate <states>".

 

My thought, and I don't mean to be accusatory, is that this is what Stephen Colbert used to call "truthiness" -- you may not have any actual examples of politicians listening to the media, you just have this general notion that "the media" guides public policy, because the media is bad, and it *feels* true to you, even though you can't articulate any actual examples.

 

But maybe I'm looking at the world wrong, maybe it's because I don't listen to talk radio or listen to pundits blither endlessly.

[Tractor]

Yeah see, your sources can and are influenced by politics whether directly or indirectly IMO.

 

I guess I have a very dim view of anything and anyone and just don't expect anyone to guide and inform me. I guide myself these days, I mean if you looked way back in threads you'd see I used to be a complete right-wing moron. Now I'm a middle of the road moron, but I do think I'm being informed much better simply by being cynical.

 

I think you maybe believe experts when they tell you things and I simply don't. Whether its health related or the guy doing work on my car. I simply don't trust any of them unless I know them absolutely and I work on my own cars or anything else for that matter.

 

I guess you could say, trust issues lol