Tpoppa

1 minute ago, 2talltim said:

I thought this too but it's the only store in town that's that busy. I stopped and bought some Rum there Saturday and checked the TP and Sanitizer isle while I was there and they were already cleaned out too. So yeah bars are closed and mount vernon is a blue collar town. I bet the liquor shelves are bare there now. 

I'll bet bars would be willing to sell some of their on hand stock at retail prices, or even distributors. 

I seem to always have an absurd amount of bourbon on hand 

One for @Tonik

19 minutes ago, Tonik said:

Might be time to see if you can get a plane from Rio to the US. Airlines are going to shut down and even if they don't we are almost certainly going to close our borders.

Unless there is a favorable location to "ride" this out for the next 2 or 3 months, I'd look at flights before you can't

1 hour ago, NinjaDoc said:

Guys, stay far away from people as much as possible. Follow the social isolation. The reports seems to be right most part, My intuition was wrong, this thing seems as bad as what it’s feared to be. Personal experience from colleagues in some hot spots seems like this is much virulent form. And we just started seeing the tip of the iceberg.  In our practice area we started seeing some positive cases. Not yet horrible scenario of icu filling up etc yet. Hopefully the curve flattens enough for us to deal with it in a timely manner. If the reports turns out to be true , Just a rough guesstimate on worst case scenario is 200 million being affected / 20 million needing hospital/ less than 2 million death/ and less than 1 million hospital beds in USA. If we follow stringent measures advised, we might be able to cut the numbers by a lot , and at least to a point where the 20 million needing hospital can be bought down to 10-15 and spread over time so we can tackle with the 1 million beds we have. 

How do you reconcile those estimates against data coming out of countries like China and South Korea where spread already appears to be leveling off?

It's easy to question the reliability of data from China, but South Korea is likely more trustworthy.

20 minutes ago, NinjaDoc said:

My brain had to give you guys the alarmist view point the healthcare is adopting to curb this infection. I agree with them just based on the current view point. And continue to follow the hyper precautions . But to be quite honest my heart and personal experience is telling me the virus was here even before the alarms and notoriety. Was seeing cases in hospital which was coming back negative for flu but fit all the bills for bad viral - lung  picture. Some cases even young people getting infected and presenting with caked out lungs. This was even December January period way before alarms went off. If infact that’s the case probably thousands of Ohioans already have it and it still hasn’t resulted in pandemonium. Now that we started testing for it we started finding it. If not we would have charted it as bad case of atypical flu or something. But this is just pure anecdotal personal view point of mine. 

I agree with a lot of that Nivin.

As a physician there are perspectives you should support to be the best physician you can be.  

My ex wife is a physician.  I was/am friends with many from her med school class.

My opinion on coronavirus makes me a level headed-non panicking-big picture thinking American, but not appropriate for someone who is responsible for treating people that need help.

46 minutes ago, NinjaDoc said:

lets just hope this blows over just like most other scares we been seeing. More than likely it will, I would rather be happy people are over prepared than under prepared. All essential services will keep going, its not going to be a world war scenario, streets not going to be empty, people not going to starve and die, people who really have to work and whose work is essential will keep working until they are sick.  A volatile thing like Stock market is not at all a judgement, viable marker or good measuring stick of humanities response to call for survival. It will bounce back in due course. Just like master card says , hand soap 1000$, toilet tissues 2000$ .. saving family from some fake, hyped up, simple flu ... priceless. 

I think the government actions like travel bans and limiting gathering sizes are justified.  The point is containment...incremental, half measures would be pointless.

The over-prepared-ness and panic is absolutely causing significant economic collateral damage.   I am not worried about corporate America, it s very likely that the stock market will bounce back.  OTOH, many small businesses (restaurants, bars, shops, barbers, etc ) and people living paycheck to paycheck will not bounce back.  Businesses will be shuttered and houses will be foreclosed over this panic.  That will ripple through our economy for years and have a greater effect than the virus itself.  

Panic and herd mentality over 6 thousanths of a percent will have a lasting impact on large swaths of the population.   

17 minutes ago, what said:

The issue is theres no way to know who actually has it out of the wider population due to diagnosis guidelines being fairly lax in some areas and testing not being widely available. They will only list cases they can verify. If you only have 1000 test kits you can only verify 1000 cases even if it is widespread. The overall case numbers are widely useless. The only meaningful data I can see them getting from the current public numbers is the mortality rate from proven cases, and mortality demographics. 

...and if your assumption is true that there really are more cases than known or reported that would mean the percentage of fatalities is even lower.  Because fatalities can be more easily counted, correct?

IE...if there were twice the cases; the fatality rate is cut in half.

3 minutes ago, what said:

The issue is theres no way to know who actually has it out of the wider population due to diagnosis guidelines being fairly lax in some areas and testing not being widely available. They will only list cases they can verify. If you only have 1000 test kits you can only verify 1000 cases even if it is widespread. The overall case numbers are widely useless. The only meaningful data I can see them getting from the current public numbers is the mortality rate from proven cases, and mortality demographics. 

I agree that there could be more cases than reported.  I disagree with your conclusion about mortality rates.

Even if you doubled the cases in China that still 12-thousanths of a single percent in 3 months.  

I'll be very surprised of cases spread in the US at the same rate as what was 'reported' in China.

Just a bit of perspective....

China's population is approx 1.4 Billion.  In 3 months, there have about 81,000 cases which equates to 0.006% of the Chinese Population (1% of China's population would be 14,000,000)

US population is about 327 Million.  About 1,300 cases in the US which equates to 0.0004% of the US Population (1% of the US population would be 3.2 million).

That's cases not deaths.   Reason to be concerned...absolutely.  Reason to lose your fucking minds and cause an economic meltdown...absolutely fucking not.  Feel free to check my math.

Probably the most accurate data source available:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html?fbclid=IwAR2B5QOYzmsIVK8KjrziR6idZgbXNFqT1xkUb2NtUD9a1gcWYpk4FJ_BmuY

49 minutes ago, what said:

How are they testing? Are they still testing or just saying good enough? Lots of videos of vans piled high with corpses making their way around the internet where mom/dad/grandma/grandpa didnt make it. 

Well they did report about 3000 deaths.  That would fill a few vans.

But yeah, accurate data out of China was an issue long before this.

1 minute ago, Steve Butters said:

I'm just waiting for my employer to let me work remote.... Shit

My company (based in LA) is allowing everyone to work from home.

About 20% of us (including me) already work from home.

9 minutes ago, SpecialEd said:

And just how is this disease deadlier than the flu as some assert? I don't get it.

By percentages, COVID 19 has a higher likelihood of being fatal.

Obviously, there are many more people that have the flu.

As of now, there have been about 81,000 cases in China, about 63,000 of those have recovered.  The occurrence of newly reported cases in China is slowing.  Containment measures in China appear to be having a positive effect. 

We have lower population density than China and access to better medical care.  We also have access to more information than China had when things started in December.  

https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-ten-reasons-why-you-ought-not-to-panic-132941?utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3OFNdf9jzhgIjODwFuFKUr1YDWJxmEWXYlJSN6u3Q9jndwcWYkoTvXRVQ

7 hours ago, Killer_kaw said:

I knew going in the green would be hard to match up. Plan to use vinyl graphics to break it up a bit. Tried a few different things and I like the purple/white but I was using scraps, ran out and the purple is no longer available. Got some material on order though. Back to the drawing board. 
 

Some of the new Ninja KRT models have Green/Gray decals.  Something like that might tie it together.

We decided?  My best interest?

1 minute ago, Qman said:

What year is the BMW?

2015 

12 minutes ago, Katoom said:

My buddy in AL loved his R12R. So long as the surface was smooth around the corners he was loving it. Get some chop mid corner, or a little bit of gravel, he said it was like riding on ice.

Never saw anything like that in any of the reviews. 

One of the things that stood out to me was how planted it feels.  The Dynamic Suspension does take a bit of the road feel away though.  Like some road imperfections get absorbed before you can feel them.    

11 minutes ago, Pauly said:

I wanted to ride Tony's bike, but he thought he might have trouble reaching the shifter on mine. 

Riding wouldn't be an issue.  Maybe stopping though.

Keep that in mind if you go off road.  Plan your lines around dips and low spots.

16 minutes ago, Pauly said:

I only got to ride with him once.. and I was no where near capable of seeing the smoldering cigarette. I heard tale, though. 

He was already blazing fast.  The cigarette was just rubbing it in your face 🤣

Great guy.  Passed years ago, unfortunately, due to a heart issue 😔

42 minutes ago, whaler said:

Interested to see this play out.

the adventure/tour/sport bike seems like the perfect balance.

Mine is the Roadster.  It's fully capable of sport riding or touring without any mods.

14 hours ago, Bad324 said:

I tried this once. Ended up so far behind he stopped at the gas station at the end of the road and was leaning up against the sign pole staring at his wrist when I got there

A (very fast) guy I used to ride with, would break away from the group and find a place to stop.  Then he'd break a cigarette in half and light it.  When you caught up he was leaning against his bike "just finishing" his smoke.  When I finally got quicker and could stay with him I figured out what he was doing  🤣 

First real ride on the BMW this weekend. 

I haven't liked a bike this much...maybe ever