what

just do what i do and use a simple combination of three numbers, like 123.

perrrrrrdy

how much belt fuzz did you have to clean out of there?

Those people already did the damage, unknowingly, weeks ago. Containment/isolation has failed and they are hunkering down for 2 or 3 weeks of hell right now it seems.

Population density mixed with frequently touched/high-traffic public spaces and a large population of people that travel to/from China and Italy going under the radar for weeks are the main factors that were brought up. Not in this press conference but by the female physician on Trump's team, Deborah I think.

NYC is about to be a death zone. A new peak case estimate of 14-21 days from today, with new infections doubling every 3 days. Seems the shelter-in-place order did not do enough to curb the spread, at least in NYC and surrounding areas. With the population density and the length of time this thing can live on surfaces it's not surprising. Sadly. video for anyone interested:

Yeah that was shitty.

That was my take on it as well. Trump wants to convey hope to people saying hydroxichloroquin might be effective at treating this, Fauci agreed with him but stipulated that the drug still needs to be tested (which it is starting today, 10,000 doses going to patients in NY supposedly) to see verifiable results so the FDA can approve it as a form of treatment for dire cases. That's businessman/politician vs. doctor/scientist speak. Same idea just different approaches for different crowds. Fauci wanted to avoid people going out and buying chloroquin used for other purposes, taking it as "medicine" and dying. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/man-dies-after-ingesting-chloroquine-attempt-prevent-coronavirus-n1167166 I never thought I would say this but for the last few days at least I think Trump has been doing as good a job as anyone could in the position we are in. Nobody knows exactly how to deal with this. He seems to be listening to the people on his task force at the very least. I guess we'll see how good a job they are doing after this is all over. Maybe I'll be eating my shoe, but I hope not.

Testing to see who has it is losing out in importance every day to testing to see who has had it and is now immune. Really hope they get those antibody test kits rolled out quickly, that would give a much clearer picture of where we stand, at least in areas that aren't currently drowning in cases. If even 10 or 20% of a given population is effectively immune, that would slow the spread by quite a bit, and from yesterday's press conference it sounds like they are starting to think this spread a lot further a lot sooner than previously thought.

The death tally won't outpace total deaths from other factors but it will be enough to put a dent in the averages for this year, should things get really out of control. That said, risk of death for this overall is very low. It's just a lot higher than the other more common highly communicable diseases out and about right now.

Got my new suit in the mail. Wore it around the house for a few hours while working just to smell like I'm going riding.

Once I'm out of self quarantine I will probably do some day rides down to a park to "go walking" in SEO or something. Assuming the weather is nice and we aren't at full scale national guard deployment acting as police yet.

Asymptomatic transmission is a thing for covid19, at least that's what they've been saying for the past month or so. They seem to think you can be contagious for days before you show any sort of symptoms. Some people never show symptoms and are just carriers. Other people this thing straight up kills dead. The flu is likely to be transmitted by infected to 1.5 other people, while they estimate covid will spread to 3 other people from a single source. So at least twice as infectious and likely 20-30x more deadly than the seasonal flu, on average. As far as cases go, the case numbers are likely very skewed as this is out in the wild but only a small amount of people are able to get tested. Once more testing starts being rolled out, expect to see the number of confirmed infected skyrocket. Most people will get over it on their own, but some wont. That "some" is the reason all of these lockdowns are being implemented. 2% of the population of Ohio is a heck of a lot of corpses.

It's a hellhole.

because springfield I imagine.

Gonna be ordering some delivery that will last me a few days so I don't have to dip into my stockpile. Lasagna sounds good. Stay at home order in full: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6816974/Ohio-Stay-at-Home-order.pdf

I'm around 300 in gear lol

These people will absolutely survive and absolutely have 20 children each.

Probably people desperately looking for supplies who didn't go out last week or the week before to stock up. This is going to be a tough next few months for most people. Things will come back once this blows by but I'm expecting a worse hit to the economy than the housing bust in 2008 in the short term. If I still have a job in a few weeks I will be surprised.

I appreciate the updates, @NinjaDoc, I like knowing your thoughts on this as it unfolds. It has an influence on my decision-making.

I had a really really bad cold the week after Christmas out in New Mexico. My throat was swollen and so sore it hurt to breath. I completely lost my voice, I was coughing so much I was coughing up blood, I was also dizzy and had a mild fever. The bad portion lasted for about 5 days, but it lingered for 2 weeks or so. When this corona virus stuff started popping up in the news and they were describing the symptoms it really sounded like what I had. It's possible that it could have been, given the timeline and the fact that China had known about this since very early December but was keeping quiet. I could have passed someone from Wuhan in the airport on the way to NM and picked it up there. No idea. Or it could have just been a really bad cold. It was not the flu. Got word today that everyone from my company that can, is to work from home for the next 3 to 4 weeks. I'm on that list. Time to be lonely.

IMA rearsets installed on the R1

They wouldnt be counted as covid19 deaths if the patient was never diagnosed with covid19

Italy is probably going to be the best estimate of what we will see here within the next 2 weeks.

The issue is theres no way to know who actually has it out of the wider population due to diagnosis guidelines being fairly lax in some areas and testing not being widely available. They will only list cases they can verify. If you only have 1000 test kits you can only verify 1000 cases even if it is widespread. The overall case numbers are widely useless. The only meaningful data I can see them getting from the current public numbers is the mortality rate from proven cases, and mortality demographics.