College Football Thread 2016/2017 v2.0

[Dr. Pomade]

And saying that Devin Smith was a once in a lifetime deep ball talent is hyperbolic. We have had several similar receivers at Ohio State - Ginn, Jenkins, Glenn, and Galloway to name 4.

[LJ]

You know that 5/10 extrapolates to 7.5/15, so no, I wouldn't call it "regressing"

[Dr. Pomade]

I think Washington is the most nervous. I know the committee isn't supposed to consider this but with how much money is involved there is no way they don't. If anyone saw the P12 championship game they saw that the stands were only about 70% filled. That's completely unacceptable. College Football is a huge money maker and if Washington can't even fill the stands in their conference championship game they certainly won't for the playoffs that will be further away and way more expensive. This is why teams like Ohio State typically get the benefit of the doubt. Am I sayin college football is corrupt? Not exactly. Is college Football a big business money maker? Yes.

 

Yup, exactly. As much as I hate to admit this, but Ohio State never would have as many BCS bowl wins/invites as they did if they weren't Ohio State. We Ohio State fans like to brag about how many BCS bowls we went to, how many we won, etc. but many (if not most?) of them were because we were selected as an at-large bid - and the powers that be wanted to make that money.

[Dr. Pomade]

You know that 5/10 extrapolates to 7.5/15, so no, I wouldn't call it "regressing"

 

And you know if my aunt had balls we'd call her my uncle.

[LJ]

And saying that Devin Smith was a once in a lifetime deep ball talent is hyperbolic. We have had several similar receivers at Ohio State - Ginn, Jenkins, Glenn, and Galloway to name 4.

 

None of those guys are within 10 yards of Smith's 2014 average per reception of 28 yards. Smith is #15 all time for career average and #8 all time for season average. That is all NCAA

[Dr. Pomade]

Besides, you're dodging my point: the article you quoted didn't exactly use the best data to support it's opinion. I'm not disagreeing with the possibility that Barrett isn't the problem, I'm just pointing out the article didn't do itself much of a favor.

 

"Ladies and gentleman of the jury, my client is innocent of murder. He has killed many people, but not this dead guy were are talking about today. No, that guy he didn't kill, though he did kill a couple and their dog earlier that same day. You must acquit."

[LJ]

Besides, you're dodging my point: the article you quoted didn't exactly use the best data to support it's opinion. I'm not disagreeing with the possibility that Barrett isn't the problem, I'm just pointing out the article didn't do itself much of a favor.

 

"Ladies and gentleman of the jury, my client is innocent of murder. He has killed many people, but not this dead guy were are talking about today. No, that guy he didn't kill, though he did kill a couple and their dog earlier that same day. You must acquit."

 

No I'm not. His overall deep ball completion % is HIGHER than his 2014 season. He is .5 completions off of last year to his top receiver.

[Dr. Pomade]

None of those guys are within 10 yards of Smith's 2014 average per reception of 28 yards. Smith is #15 all time for career average and #8 all time for season average. That is all NCAA

 

Just because Ginn isn't #1 in career YPC percentage in the NCAA doesn't mean he wasn't a really good deep ball threat.

 

Or are you saying that statistics never lie? Because if that's the case then I'd refer you to my fancy chart here showing that 50 percent is greater than 47 percent...

[LJ]

Just because Ginn isn't #1 in career YPC percentage in the NCAA doesn't mean he wasn't a really good deep ball threat.

 

Or are you saying that statistics never lie? Because if that's the case then I'd refer you to my fancy chart here showing that 50 percent is greater than 47 percent...

 

Ginn was more adept at taking a 15 yard slant to the house. Smith is the best we have ever had at catching a 30 yard bomb over his shoulder. That's why the averages are so different.

[Dr. Pomade]

No I'm not. His overall deep ball completion % is HIGHER than his 2014 season. He is .5 completions off of last year to his top receiver.

 

Not based on the numbers quoted in that article he's not.

 

57 % complete to Smith in 2014

 

50 % complete to Thomas in 2015

 

47 % complete to Samuel in 2016

 

See how those numbers go down? That's math

[Dr. Pomade]

Ginn was more adept at taking a 15 yard slant to the house. Smith is the best we have ever had at catching a 30 yard bomb over his shoulder. That's why the averages are so different.

 

Just because Ginn was better at taking a 15 yard slant to the house doesn't mean he wasn't also a really good deep ball threat.

 

Just because Smith was the best at Ohio State at catching a 30 yard bomb over his shoulder (not sure if I agree completely, but for the sake of argument I will) doesn't mean he was a once in a lifetime deep ball talent. Other receivers we've had are capable of and have caught 30 yard bombs over their shoulder. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

 

See how I did that? That's logic

[LJ]

Not based on the numbers quoted in that article he's not.

 

57 % complete to Smith in 2014

 

50 % complete to Thomas in 2015

 

47 % complete to Samuel in 2016

 

See how those numbers go down? That's math

 

He completed 34% of total deep balls in 2014, 35% in 2016. See how that goes UP? The total reception making up the 3% difference in the top receiver ISNT EVEN A WHOLE RECEPTION. aka statistically insignificant when there is no such thing as .5 receptions

[LJ]

Just because Ginn was better at taking a 15 yard slant to the house doesn't mean he wasn't also a really good deep ball threat.

 

Just because Smith was the best at Ohio State at catching a 30 yard bomb over his shoulder (not sure if I agree completely, but for the sake of argument I will) doesn't mean he was a once in a lifetime deep ball talent. Other receivers we've had are capable of and have caught 30 yard bombs over their shoulder. The two aren't mutually exclusive.

 

See how I did that? That's logic

 

I guess every analyst and scout's opinion that he is the best they have ever seen at catching the deep ball means nothing. Lol. See how I did that? Just because others were capable, doesnt mean they were nearly as good. That's logic.

[LJ]

Sample

 

NFL Media's Mike Mayock believes Smith tracks the deep ball better than any player in recent memory, while NFL Media's Daniel Jeremiah cited Mike Wallace as a receiver with a similar skill-set.

[Dr. Pomade]

He completed 34% of total deep balls in 2014, 35% in 2016. See how that goes UP? The total reception making up the 3% difference in the top receiver ISNT EVEN A WHOLE RECEPTION. aka statistically insignificant when there is no such thing as .5 receptions

 

Where exactly is that data presented in the article you quoted? I must have missed it.

[LJ]

 

Less interceptions now too. Devin Smith's Touchdown % was insane btw. He also averaged something like 38 yards per touchdown in 2014

[Dr. Pomade]

I guess every analyst and scout's opinion that he is the best they have ever seen at catching the deep ball means nothing. Lol. See how I did that? Just because others were capable, doesnt mean they were nearly as good. That's logic.

 

Yes, it's faulty logic.

 

To say that Player A is really good at X

 

does not mean

 

Player A is "once in a lifetime talent" at X

 

as it suggests that he's the only one in a lifetime that has that talent.

 

Just because someone isn't as good at something as someone else doesn't mean they aren't really good at it. The second fastest sprinter in the world who lost to Usain Bolt is still really fucking fast at running 100 yards down a track.

[Dr. Pomade]

 

Less interceptions now too. Devin Smith's Touchdown % was insane btw. He also averaged something like 38 yards per touchdown in 2014

 

Wait, now you are quoting an article that shows that his completion percentage went down by 10 percent from last year to this year and this is somehow supposed to suggest he hasn't regressed?

 

Am I taking crazy pills?

[LJ]

Anaysts scouts Urban Meyer all saying he is the best they have ever seen would mean he is the best in their lifetimes. Aka a once in a lifetime talent.

[LJ]

Wait, now you are quoting an article that shows that his completion percentage went down by 10 percent from last year to this year and this is somehow supposed to suggest he hasn't regressed?

 

Am I taking crazy pills?

Yes. Because he had less than HALF the attempts of 2014 or 2016. There is a reason that many stats arent tracked until you pass a certain number of attempts.

[LJ]

You also seem to be ignoring that his TD-INT ratio on deep passes has exponentially increased.

[LJ]

BTW a really good deep ball thrower is around 50% and anything above is considered "elite". Jake Browning hits close to 60%. So Barrett is near good when it comes to throwing to his top receiver, but on a total "not great" when it comes to the other receivers. His overall average including the outlier of 2015 is 36% and he is hitting 35% this year.

 

On the other hand, Jalen Hurts is 6/20 on deep balls.

[Dr. Pomade]

Final rankings will be:

 

1. Bama

2. Clemson

3. Ohio State

4. Washington

 

5. Michigan

6. Penn State

 

______________

 

 

Pretty much nailed it.

[Rustlestiltskin]

Lulz. Mich and penn state got snuffed. O-H !!!

[Dr. Pomade]

I think we handle Clemson - they aren't used to playing anyone who actually plays defense - and let's hope Washington lands a hay maker against Bama.