College Football Thread 2018 v 2.0

[SpaceGhost]

Remember, money factors in as much as record.

[Otis Nice]

Also, few more things for my Dear Diary:

 

- who exactly has Clemson beaten this year? Texas AM and Syracuse? The ACC is a hot mess.

 

Who has 'Bama beaten? LSU and Citadel? ELL-OH-ELL.

 

- Ohio State fans started and "overrated" chant at yesterday's game. That's about dumb. No, you want to be like, "This team was so good and probably was even underrated, but we just managed to curbstomp them." Though, admittedly, that would be a much more difficult chant to manage at the Shoe.

 

Agreed, but we could try.

[Dr. Pomade]

Gonna be a tough in for us, doesnt Oklahoma play Texas whose ranked higher than northwestern? They'd have to play them super close and us smoke NW or they'd have to lose.

 

I'm inclined to agree, it's going to be a difficult sell if Oklahoma beats Texas.

 

For one, Oklahoma's loss is much, much better than ours. They lost on a last second field goal to a blue blood ranked team in a rivalry game. Ohio State got manhandled by a basketball school. Oh, and BTW, Oklahoma will have avenged its only loss.

 

It also doesn't help that Oklahoma is a blue blood with a strong national following. Granted, it's not like Ohio State's, so we'd get the money nod, but still, it's not like it's Ohio State vs. TCU when there really was no comparison with respect how much money can be brought in.

 

If Oklahoma wins, Ohio State will have to absolutely throttle Northwestern to have any shot of making the 4th slot. The playoff rankings should have Oklahoma 5 and Ohio State 6, so they'll have position on us. The only way we leapfrog is with a decimation of Northwestern and hope that Oklahoma either looks weak or looks characteristically porous on defense. That way, Ohio State can claim to be playing better football currently, or, in other words, be favored through the "eye test." And people will have to give Oklahoma a hard way to go about sucking on defense. Meaning, the case will need to be made that Ohio State is the more "complete" team, is a much different team than it was just a couple of weeks ago, and is playing better than Oklahoma is currently (i.e., would be favored on a neutral field).

 

This concludes my dissertation. Thank you to my dissertation committee your time. Also, I'd be remiss if I didn't thank my advisor, who has been a fantastic mentor and source of infinite knowledge through this process. Good day.

[LJ]

How hilarious would it be if Ohio State destroys Northwestern and Oklahoma destroys Texas and the Committee leaves out Notre Dame while saying "Join a conference"

[BStowers023]

How hilarious would it be if Ohio State destroys Northwestern and Oklahoma destroys Texas and the Committee leaves out Notre Dame while saying "Join a conference"

 

I think I said it on here a while back that if ND goes 12-0 and you're deciding between them or a 12-1 conference champ/s then you need to throw out the 1 loss by the conference champ/s and compare the 12 wins. I'm sick of Notre Dame getting a pass because of refusal to join a conference based on pure greed. You want to be treated like an equal? Join a conference. You think Army or BYU would get the benefit of the doubt if they went 12-0 as an independent? Hell no.

[LJ]

I think I said it on here a while back that if ND goes 12-0 and you're deciding between them or a 12-1 conference champ/s then you need to throw out the 1 loss by the conference champ/s and compare the 12 wins. I'm sick of Notre Dame getting a pass because of refusal to join a conference based on pure greed. You want to be treated like an equal? Join a conference. You think Army or BYU would get the benefit of the doubt if they went 12-0 as an independent? Hell no.

 

People are saying "well we don't have any history on what the Committee does with a team with no conference championship"

 

Yes we do, Baylor and TCU 2014

[Dr. Pomade]

How hilarious would it be if Ohio State destroys Northwestern and Oklahoma destroys Texas and the Committee leaves out Notre Dame while saying "Join a conference"

 

That would be monumentally epic. Unfortunately, Notre Dame brings too much cash to the table.

 

The Ohio State homer in me doesn't want to type this, but if we are hoping for an expanded playoff then Georgia beating Alabama would likely be a nice catalyst. If that happens, Georgia and Alabama both get it, and so does ND. Let's say Clemson rounds out the top 4. Then you'd have:

 

- 3 of the Power 5 conferences are now left out: B10, B12, PAC

 

- ND gets in without needing a conference championship (or even a conference)

 

- B10 (at very worst the 2nd most politically powerful conference)champion being left out of playoff for second year in a row

 

- Clemson (ACC champ) gets in playing in a shit conference

 

There would be a lot of very unhappy people.

 

And, just to put this out there, the SEC really doesn't have anyone beyond Alabama. I'm still not sold on Georgia, who we all just assume is a good team. It's aggravating that we're anointing the SEC championship a spot in the playoff as if that conference is so good the winner MUST go on. Give me a break.

[Dr. Pomade]

People are saying "well we don't have any history on what the Committee does with a team with no conference championship"

 

Yes we do, Baylor and TCU 2014

 

Yup, and the precedent was that both were penalized for not being a conference champion whereas Ohio State was.

 

And while we're making the case against ND, they have a substantially weaker SOS than the other contenders. They are currently 27th in SOS, whereas Ohio State is 10th and Oklahoma is 15th. And, ND cannot improve their SOS, whereas both Ohio State and Oklahoma will can. Meaning, the disparity should be even greater after next weekend.

 

Here's what Irish fans will say:

 

- we beat Michigan, a great team

 

- we beat NW, the B10 West champ

 

- we beat Pitt, an ACC division champ

 

- we beat a good Syracuse team

 

- we beat USC, who are always good regardless of what their record is because they are from LA and fast and have good unis and play in the Coliseum where Marcus Allen played

 

- we beat Stanford, who are a PAC powerhouse (never mind they suck this year)

[SpaceGhost]

From ESPN, look at how the predictor is showing tOSU with a BETTER chance to make the playoff than OU, UCF, or Georgia.

 

The Playoff Predictor provides every team's chance to reach the College Football Playoff in the preseason and each and every day of the college football season. It's telling us not who would make the playoff at the end of the day, but rather, who will get in on Selection Day. This isn't some arbitrary formula based on the feeling of a few people in Bristol; it was created by studying the selection committee's rankings during the season and on Selection Day each of the past four seasons. For a full description of the Playoff Predictor's methodology, go here, but below you'll find the current playoff chances of the 25 teams most likely to get in.

 

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Otis Nice]

Playoff Predictor says Notre Dame isn't a final four lock.

[Dr. Pomade]

Playoff Predictor says Notre Dame isn't a final four lock.

 

lol, what the hell?

[Dr. Pomade]

Ohio State vs Oklahoma Debate

 

This article is from SBNation, which has content I tend to like. I can't disagree with anything the author offers. I didn't realize this until the article pointed it out, but Ohio State has been at the center of debate/controversy during every playoff selection.

 

A couple random thoughts for Dear Diary:

 

(1) We absolutely should have played for the NC in 2015. We squandered that season. Had we been dominant that year (like Alabama has been this year), I think we get a pass in losing to Michigan State. But, unfortunately, we fucked around with the Cardale is the starter, no it's JT, lol fooled you it's really Cardale thing way too long and sputtered far too much during the middle of the season. Elliot is the best running back in the NFL and we managed to run him like 3 times in the Michigan State game. I'm still scratching my head and cutting my wrists.

 

(2) Ohio State reminds me of USC in the mid-2000s: talent-rich teams that could easily have played and won the NC each year, but usually found some way of losing a game they had no business losing that ruined their chances. USC had Cal, Stanford (remember them being 41 point underdogs?), UCLA (in 2006, should have been playing Ohio State in BCS NC game), and Oregon State (which was in 2008 after they throttled Ohio State in LA). Ohio State has had Michigan State, Iowa, and now Purdue. Those USC teams would nearly lose to some lame ass team and then manhandle whoever they played in a bowl (Penn State, Illinois). Sound familiar?

[kirks5oh]

would be great if we have a win (first and foremost)--northwestern is a sleeper team--they were handling Michigan for most of the game. but a convincing win would be great. I think the committee needs the 3 teams that can compete against alabama--and I don't see Oklahoma being one of those teams. Oklahoma has zero defense--zero. we had a great defensive performance against Michigan. if we have the same performance against northwestern, I think we have a solid argument to not only jump Oklahoma, but also jump notre dame, and put them in the #4 slot, facing bama in the first round of the playoffs. otherwise, i'd honestly rather play in the rose bowl.

 

or Georgia beats bama in a close game and both of them make it in over Oklahoma/osu

[BStowers023]

What if scenario:

 

Georgia beats Alabama

Texas beats Oklahoma

Ohio State beats Northwestern

 

Final 4

Clemson

Georgia

Notre Dame

Alabama

 

Alabama: Doesn't win it's conference 2 years in a row, yet sneaks its way into the playoffs.

Ohio State: Wins it's conference 2 years in a row, but gets snubbed by the committee in back to back years.

[Dr. Pomade]

What if scenario:

 

Georgia beats Alabama

Texas beats Oklahoma

Ohio State beats Northwestern

 

Final 4

Clemson

Georgia

Notre Dame

Alabama

 

Alabama: Doesn't win it's conference 2 years in a row, yet sneaks its way into the playoffs.

Ohio State: Wins it's conference 2 years in a row, but gets snubbed by the committee in back to back years.

 

This could be a catalyst for expansion to 8 teams. B10 would lose their shit.

 

I'd like to see Clemson lose, Bama win, Oklahoma win, and Ohio State win, which would give you:

 

Alabama

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Oklahoma

 

That's a dream scenario for the Playoff Committee. It would guarantee either ND or Ohio State in NC game (which guarantees the most $$$) AND it would give you 3 out of 4 chances at a fantastic match in title game:

 

Ohio State v Alabama (rematch of 2014, 2 of the top programs right now going at it, Saban v Meyer - 2 best coaches in game going at it)

 

ND v Alabama (rematch of 2012, teams with most national titles going at it)

 

Ohio State v Oklahoma (grudge match)

 

ND v Oklahoma (2 bluebloods)

[Aaron]

It'll be 6, not 8, when it does finally expand.

[Mace1647545504]

I would LOVE to see tOSU vs ND..we beat the posers by 17..but then we bama and I'm not so sure we can handle Tua

[Dr. Pomade]

I'm not sure anyone can handle Tua this year. But, I'd think we'd have a puncher's chance.

 

Also, something else to keep in mind: if Ohio State goes to playoff, Michigan would go to the Rose Bowl, which would be a huge draw ($$$). Follow the money, it usually leads you to the answer.

[SpaceGhost]

6th behind OU. Man that sucks.

 

Not saying it would happen, but couldn’t Saban totally bomb the SEC game and fuck the Big Ten and the 12 and Alabama would not drop out of the top 4?

[Dr. Pomade]

Playoff Rankings (this is from memory, so someone correct me if I'm wrong):

 

1 - Bama

2 - Clemson

3 - ND

4 - Georgia

5 - Oklahoma

6 - Ohio State

7 - Michigan

8 - UCF

 

12 - Penn State

 

14 - Texas

 

21 - Northwestern

 

I don't like that Northwestern DROPPED 2 spots with a win. That doesn't bode well for a win over them next week, insofar as the committee is already devaluing them.

 

I do like that Michigan only dropped to 7. Weird that Ohio State is only 1 spot above them, as there certainly seemed like at least 10 spots between them on Saturday.

 

It's good that Michigan is at 7 and Penn State is at 12, insofar as they likely won't drop any lower than that - since they don't play and thus can't lose. In fact, Michigan might move up if Georgia loses. The final rankings are all that matter to the committee; they don't where a team was ranked when you played (like TCU; which is dumb IMO, but oh well).

 

The rankings were as I predicted. And, like I said, Ohio State is going to have to put a beating on NW. BTW, I don't really like how this is setting up, insofar as we're all talking like us beating NW is a foregone conclusion and we're just debating how much we'll win by - that's a recipe for a disaster. NW will be all kinds of pissed.

[Dr. Pomade]

6th behind OU. Man that sucks.

 

Not saying it would happen, but couldn’t Saban totally bomb the SEC game and fuck the Big Ten and the 12 and Alabama would not drop out of the top 4?

 

Saban would never intentionally lose a game, ever. At least not if my read on him is correct. Just not in his nature to do it.

 

However, should Alabama lose, they are totally in. And if that's the case Oklahoma and Ohio State are fucked, barring a Clemson loss.

 

It's good that Oklahoma/Texas play at noon on Saturday. Ohio State will know exactly what they have to do well before kickoff. If Texas can't beat Oklahoma, then we want Oklahoma to look hapless on defense and look mediocre on offense. Not sure those two things can happen, but, if they can, it would help even if Oklahoma wins.

[BStowers023]

I do like that Michigan only dropped to 7. Weird that Ohio State is only 1 spot above them, as there certainly seemed like at least 10 spots between them on Saturday.

 

I think if Milton didn’t get hurt for UCF, they would have put Michigan behind them, still giving them an outside shot at the playoff. What putting UCF behind Michigan means to me is even with the most insane chaos this weekend, they’re not getting in. The committee is protecting themselves with Michigan as their block.

[Otis Nice]

Elliot is the best running back in the NFL and we managed to run him like 3 times in the Michigan State game. I'm still scratching my head and cutting my wrists.

 

While I love everything you say typically and agree with most of it and being both an OSU fan and a Cowboys(lol) fan I believe Gurley would have something to say about this.

 

...there's a reason I took him #1 overall in fantasy when I could've gotten Zeke. Zeke is a stud. This year Gurley is numero uno.

 

As for Tua go back and watch film. He's LOOKED great against inferior opponents. I mean, he didn't even take a snap in the fourth quarter almost every game. To me that shows he's played crap.

 

Any time Tua has been pressured at all he makes shoddy decisions and/or throws some TERRIBLE throws. He's good but he's not NEARLY as good as the media is making him out to be. He'll go pro and be mediocre at best on a fair to middling team.

 

I think if Milton didn’t get hurt for UCF, they would have put Michigan behind them, still giving them an outside shot at the playoff. What putting UCF behind Michigan means to me is even with the most insane chaos this weekend, they’re not getting in. The committee is protecting themselves with Michigan as their block.

 

Good assessment.

[Dr. Pomade]

While I love everything you say typically and agree with most of it and being both an OSU fan and a Cowboys(lol) fan I believe Gurley would have something to say about this.

 

Maybe I was being a little hyperbolic about Elliot. And, granted, Gurley is a total beast. I probably stand corrected. PROBABLY I SAID.

 

The point I was making was that we had a fantastic weapon in Elliott and managed to squander him in that game. Oh well, like we've established, if a handful loses are all we have to complain about over the span of a decade, then we're pretty much spoiled.

 

PS - Heard this stat yesterday: Urban has as many losses (7) as he does wins over Michigan.

[Otis Nice]

Maybe I was being a little hyperbolic about Elliot. And, granted, Gurley is a total beast. I probably stand corrected. PROBABLY I SAID.

 

The point I was making was that we had a fantastic weapon in Elliott and managed to squander him in that game. Oh well, like we've established, if a handful loses are all we have to complain about over the span of a decade, then we're pretty much spoiled.

 

PS - Heard this stat yesterday: Urban has as many losses (7) as he does wins over Michigan.

 

Agreed and lol @ the stat.