CoronaVirus

[Mallard]

I just looked at the Ohio numbers...2199 confirmed cases with 55 deaths, this means the death rate in Ohio is 0.025%

 

So we are doing ok, thank you mr dewine, whom i didn't vote for, but the little guy seems to be doing a very good job.

Michigan had another 75 deaths today bringing our total to 259. The numbers are still rising daily. There are 7615 confirmed cases, but we know that's under reported.

 

To the comments above above about being sick earlier with similar symptoms; my wife and I both had pneumonia in late Nov/early Dec and it was a pretty nasty season for respiratory illnesses before this came along. Consider that up here only about 25% of those tested are positive for COVID-19.

 

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[Otis Nice]

- Do you think everything is being handled adequately?

"Everything" where? In Ohio? In the nation? In other states?

 

- Has this changed your opinion on the role of federal government, and if so how? If not, why not?

Nope. Still too big and largely worthless. Full of folks with their best interests at heart.

 

- Has this changed your opinion on national healthcare? if so, how? if not why not?

Nope.

 

- Has this changed your opinion on social programs like unemployment?

Nope.

 

It's shown me it's kinda smart to live in Ohio and confirmed I'd never want to live in NY or Cali.

[greg1647545532]

This is awful.

 

The captain of the San Diego-based aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt, in port in Guam fighting a coronavirus outbreak among its crew, says that unless the Navy takes immediate action to isolate the crew off the ship, COVID-19 will continue to spread and “there will be losses,” he wrote in a letter sent Sunday to Pacific Fleet commanders.

[oh8sti]

Got a link? I wonder how they're deriving that number. Ohio is at 2% according to the health dept, US is at 1.9%, according to the data on worldometer. That would be fantastic news if it's only .66%, maybe they're including estimated number of untested infected?

 

eta: Found it, from the Lancet based on estimates/models. So not out of line with what we already suspected, but still encouraging.

 

my bad - I should have had a link. Yeah thats it though

[Jewtoys]

1,500+ cases and 10 deaths here in NC.

 

 

Weird times.

[10phone2]

This is awful.

 

I agree that isn't good. It can domino effect to Pearl Harbor if they port there and San Diego when they get back. A good portion of enlisted sailors live within 6 blocks to 2 miles from where they dock if they are at the regular docking stations.

[supldys]

That's actually 2.5%, not 0.025%.

 

I'm not sure what to make of the numbers. Overall the US rate seems to be flattening -- still a bit worse than a true linear progression but getting closer to one. Ohio's infected rate, likewise, seems to be slowing down. Social distancing at work? Maybe. But our hospitalization rate is still increasing exponentially, and today in the conference DeWine said we're only able to do 280 tests per day in state. That's pretty close to the number of new infections we've added over the last few days. I don't know how many tests are getting sent out of state.

 

I'm hopeful.

 

eta: And I gotta say, DeWine has been a goddamn rockstar at these daily briefings. Clear, direct, honest and transparent.

 

Yup 2.5% death rate in Ohio so far. But the infection rate is still about .016%

NY and NJ are still 50% of the cases in this country, CA and WA are the next 8%.

[TTQ B4U]

When did it get "real" for you? Home and like horror movies or sci-fi and have a tolerance for anxiety, then you might be able to handle him.

 

I began watching his video last week as I've been studying health and wellness and with my uncle having died just recently of COPD like my father did 6 years ago I wanted to learn more about what I witnessed. I was there both time and it was tough.

 

 

Then I began watching the rest of his videos and combined with reading about what the military is facing I'm now more interested in what this might look like 6 months from now. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/military/story/2020-03-31/spread-of-covid-19-on-carrier-theodore-roosevelt-is-ongoing-and-accelerating-captain-says

 

He's a little funny maybe even cheesy at first but he gets real fast. Keep in mind he's been doing videos online and keeping youtube attention spans for this long he needs to be.

 

 

Watch and share your opinions.

[iwashmycar]

I like that guy. Pretty entertaining yet serious AF.

 

I cant get over the cheesy backdrop though lol. Some rich mahogany and leather bound books

Edited April 1, 2020 by iwashmycar

[Mallard]

When did it get "real" for you? Home and like horror movies or sci-fi and have a tolerance for anxiety, then you might be able to handle him.

 

I began watching his video last week as I've been studying health and wellness and with my uncle having died just recently of COPD like my father did 6 years ago I wanted to learn more about what I witnessed. I was there both time and it was tough.

 

 

Then I began watching the rest of his videos and combined with reading about what the military is facing I'm now more interested in what this might look like 6 months from now. https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/military/story/2020-03-31/spread-of-covid-19-on-carrier-theodore-roosevelt-is-ongoing-and-accelerating-captain-says

 

He's a little funny maybe even cheesy at first but he gets real fast. Keep in mind he's been doing videos online and keeping youtube attention spans for this long he needs to be.

 

 

Watch and share your opinions.

He's 100% in line with everything I've been hearing and reading for the last several weeks, which is why I'll be continuing to take it seriously. The hospitals are overwhelmed and already running out of equipment.

 

Here's a nurse from a hospital up here talking about how bad it already is, and this was days ago. It's amazing that there are still people up here who think this is overblown media hype and are refusing to stay home.

 

 

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[Exodus]

Myself, Wife, and 2 mo old over Thanksgiving all got sick with the same respiratory illness. We NEVER have coughs or get sick at the same time. My little girl 2 months old at the time had it a week or two longer than we did and just slowly got better.

 

For myself over New Years, I went to bed one night and about 30min in to sleeping, I started to shiver violently, and got really sick for about 24-48hrs.

 

No idea if its related to this virus or anything but those two were definitely new and different sicknesses than we have gotten in the past.

[wagner]

https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/hilliard-woman-loses-three-family-members-to-covid-19-urges-social-distancing-for-others?fbclid=IwAR2bAWPPMQMizHLYlnj3Z5fEZUKJ_mZMLAkhlYtL1uvmh5GoaQPpKYVcg8g

[Mace1647545504]

It's sad losing so many in 1 family, it's like the family in nj that lost 4 maybe 5.

 

I look at it as a bad gene, much like cancer. If you are genetically predisposed to get cancer, or heart disease, arthritis, etc. you will contract it.

[cstmg8]

It's sad losing so many in 1 family, it's like the family in nj that lost 4 maybe 5.

 

 

 

I look at it as a bad gene, much like cancer. If you are genetically predisposed to get cancer, or heart disease, arthritis, etc. you will contract it.

I had the same thought, and I believe there's something to it..... But, remember that at least to of them didn't share the same genes. The mother and father hopefully weren't blood related to each other, and the husband who is now on a ventilator isn't a blood relative.

 

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[smokin5s]

what I'd like to know is are the doctors trying the cocktail of the malaria drug, zinc, and z-pack? I'm reading good things about it and honestly if these people are on their death beds, why not try it?

[greg1647545532]

I can pinpoint the exact moment it became real for me, March 12th -- I posted in this thread a link to the NYT map of known cases. Up until that point, while I was watching events unfold on the world stage with the sort of morbid curiosity I have for these things, I think I felt that it would remain "someone else's problem" -- Italy, Iran, China. Every other epidemic I've lived through that's made it to America had been contained after a few local outbreaks, and I guess while I was concerned, and I was angry that Trump was being a moron about it, I thought that public health professionals on the ground in Seattle would handle it. Or at least I wasn't seriously considering the possibility that they wouldn't.

 

March 11th WHO declared it a pandemic, and then March 12th I look at that map and realized it was already in every major US city. That's the moment I realized the federal response had utterly failed, it was not a Seattle problem, or a NYC problem, it was just a matter of weeks or months before we were all going to be Italy.

 

I think people are still looking at the NY/Jersey case numbers and thinking that this is still "someone else's problem." My sister lives in Jackson and the sense there is that this is a "big city problem."

 

I had a glimmer of hope yesterday after several days of good numbers, but when the final Tuesday numbers were in they were right back on the exponential curve. 750 dead Americans yesterday. Gonna be 8, 900 today. And then over a thousand a day for a while until we get up to the numbers that the Trump administration is now talking about. I saw video yesterday of body bags stacked up in the maternity ward of a NYC hospital. Dozens and dozens of bodies. It's just so surreal, it's a natural disaster that's going to hit 100 times.

 

My parents are 70 and in good health, not overweight, and they're taking good precautions. My grandmother is 91 and will most likely die from this if it gets into her facility. I haven't seen her since December, and at her age and condition there's already a good chance I won't see her again just because of the lockdown, even if she dies from something else. But we've been preparing for this for a couple of years now, so while it's a bummer to think about, it is what it is. My in-laws, on the other hand, are being complete dumbasses. They're both in their late 60s, overweight, with literally every co-morbidity factor on the list, and they're still working at their completely non-essential job every day. Guarantee my father-in-law thinks this is all just liberal bullshit.

 

Anyway, that's my debbie downer post of the day. On the upside, my kids are doing great with this distance learning thing. I'm really proud of all 3 of them, going off to school in their rooms while my wife and I go off to work.

[gillbot]

I can pinpoint the exact moment it became real for me, March 12th -- I posted in this thread a link to the NYT map of known cases. Up until that point, while I was watching events unfold on the world stage with the sort of morbid curiosity I have for these things, I think I felt that it would remain "someone else's problem" -- Italy, Iran, China. Every other epidemic I've lived through that's made it to America had been contained after a few local outbreaks, and I guess while I was concerned, and I was angry that Trump was being a moron about it, I thought that public health professionals on the ground in Seattle would handle it. Or at least I wasn't seriously considering the possibility that they wouldn't.

 

March 11th WHO declared it a pandemic, and then March 12th I look at that map and realized it was already in every major US city. That's the moment I realized the federal response had utterly failed, it was not a Seattle problem, or a NYC problem, it was just a matter of weeks or months before we were all going to be Italy.

 

I think people are still looking at the NY/Jersey case numbers and thinking that this is still "someone else's problem." My sister lives in Jackson and the sense there is that this is a "big city problem."

 

I had a glimmer of hope yesterday after several days of good numbers, but when the final Tuesday numbers were in they were right back on the exponential curve. 750 dead Americans yesterday. Gonna be 8, 900 today. And then over a thousand a day for a while until we get up to the numbers that the Trump administration is now talking about. I saw video yesterday of body bags stacked up in the maternity ward of a NYC hospital. Dozens and dozens of bodies. It's just so surreal, it's a natural disaster that's going to hit 100 times.

 

My parents are 70 and in good health, not overweight, and they're taking good precautions. My grandmother is 91 and will most likely die from this if it gets into her facility. I haven't seen her since December, and at her age and condition there's already a good chance I won't see her again just because of the lockdown, even if she dies from something else. But we've been preparing for this for a couple of years now, so while it's a bummer to think about, it is what it is. My in-laws, on the other hand, are being complete dumbasses. They're both in their late 60s, overweight, with literally every co-morbidity factor on the list, and they're still working at their completely non-essential job every day. Guarantee my father-in-law thinks this is all just liberal bullshit.

 

Anyway, that's my debbie downer post of the day. On the upside, my kids are doing great with this distance learning thing. I'm really proud of all 3 of them, going off to school in their rooms while my wife and I go off to work.

 

That's one of my biggest fears now. Where i'm at, healthcare on a daily basis is severely limited. If you add this on top of it they can't handle anything over a sprained ankle as it is, if I got it i'm WAY more likely to succumb because the care here is undertrained and inadequate on a daily basis. I mean, D doctors have to go somewhere right? Unfortunately, we end up with them it seems.

[Brandon]

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

 

I wonder when the reality will set in that this will never be a manageable load thru mitigation as it stands. It is just a mechanism to buy time (not arguing that is not bad for a short timeline) and frankly you can not, will not be able to do so for a year or longer which is what is needed for a vaccine, therapeutic....There are models (among models and models and assumptions and assumptions) showing that once May 1st hits this thing spikes in the same method it was originally going to and all we keep doing is delaying the spike, not preventing it, doing nothing to the total number of cases/deaths, and barely putting a dent in manageable load. In fact this strategy "could" be worse if evidence by the Spanish flu with not allowing more social gathering (irony) and the weather (uv radiation ect) to help combat/allow herd immunity.

 

"two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations" ...

"Unfortunately, extreme mitigation efforts which end (even gradually) reduce the number of deaths only by 1% or so; as the mitigation efforts let up, we still see a full-scale epidemic, since almost none of the population has developed immunity to the virus." ...

 

Buying time is good at this point, but some measure of reality needs to bestowed upon us these dates are false hopes. Lets hope the rate changes, I am not sure how that happens under this guideline but am certain smarter people then me are working towards that.

[RedRocket1647545505]

what I'd like to know is are the doctors trying the cocktail of the malaria drug, zinc, and z-pack? I'm reading good things about it and honestly if these people are on their death beds, why not try it?

 

Plaquenil and Azythromycin, yes. Zinc? doubtful.

[Mallard]

https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b

 

I wonder when the reality will set in that this will never be a manageable load thru mitigation as it stands. It is just a mechanism to buy time (not arguing that is not bad for a short timeline) and frankly you can not, will not be able to do so for a year or longer which is what is needed for a vaccine, therapeutic....There are models (among models and models and assumptions and assumptions) showing that once May 1st hits this thing spikes in the same method it was originally going to and all we keep doing is delaying the spike, not preventing it, doing nothing to the total number of cases/deaths, and barely putting a dent in manageable load. In fact this strategy "could" be worse if evidence by the Spanish flu with not allowing more social gathering (irony) and the weather (uv radiation ect) to help combat/allow herd immunity.

 

"two months of mitigations actually results in 50% more infections and deaths than two weeks of mitigations" ...

"Unfortunately, extreme mitigation efforts which end (even gradually) reduce the number of deaths only by 1% or so; as the mitigation efforts let up, we still see a full-scale epidemic, since almost none of the population has developed immunity to the virus." ...

 

Buying time is good at this point, but some measure of reality needs to bestowed upon us these dates are false hopes. Lets hope the rate changes, I am not sure how that happens under this guideline but am certain smarter people then me are working towards that.

The modeling seems to be accurate, however there are some unknowns that can affect that curve, or the deaths that occur. Flattening the curve and slowing the spread of the virus allows us time to build up supplies of equipment that are currently in short supply or nonexistent. It also gives us time to run trials of existing drugs that have FDA approval in order to find an effective treatment. Also, if this does behave like the flu and the rates of infection drop in summer time we may get a further delay to prepare for the next wave that comes in the fall.

 

It's definitely not going away any time soon, but it also sounds like we will all be encouraged to wear face masks once hospitals are endured a steady supply.

 

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[Brandon]

The modeling seems to be accurate, however there are some unknowns that can affect that curve, or the deaths that occur. Flattening the curve and slowing the spread of the virus allows us time to build up supplies of equipment that are currently in short supply or nonexistent. It also gives us time to run trials of existing drugs that have FDA approval in order to find an effective treatment. Also, if this does behave like the flu and the rates of infection drop in summer time we may get a further delay to prepare for the next wave that comes in the fall.

 

It's definitely not going away any time soon, but it also sounds like we will all be encouraged to wear face masks once hospitals are endured a steady supply.

 

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/31/pence-task-force-coronavirus-aid-157806

 

In summary, it appears we are sending loads of PPE to other countries when we have a shortage here, in hopes that down the line, these countries can make PPE for us when a second wave hits...

 

Seems like a flawed strategy that we are into IMO, but I hope I am wrong. If you read the article they are showing no difference in 2 weeks to 2 months, none, but the collateral damage is potentially far greater.

 

Offering some buffer to scramble is important, clinical ect. Brix and Fauci are both adamant that these trials while great they are happening rapidly are ad minimum a year away...You simply cant do this for a year. You can not.

 

To me I would argue get as prepared (seems to be happening//who says we did it the best?) as you can, we are mostly there, get the serological test out asap to control the asymptomatic and immune reentry and affect the transmission rates, and get people back at it, build the herd, shelter the weak, put in place mild distancing measures and get things going back to normal. The out come as it is understood is not changing thats what this is saying just delaying the suffering and has a high potential to be worse waiting. The sliver of hope for a miracle drug repurposed on a unheard of timeline is a nice thought to advocate for the delay tactic (and I would love that) but it has a 6-10 trillion dollar cost maybe larger and maybe more life lost then just letting this proceed in short fashion with the short term extreme controls and then longer term moderate measures. I hope things change.

[Mace1647545504]

My wife is worried sick about our son who works in the health care field.

He's health but as a youngster had seasonal allergies/asthma.

He's a millennial with that indestructible attitude, which upsets his mom and I.

He was supposed to go to New Orleans about 3 weeks ago before they shut everything down and was going to go ..finally they shut stuff down and he had to cancel his plans.

WTF is wrong with these kids

[10phone2]

not just the young folks. parents just flew down to new orleans for the 2nd time in a month.

[Mace1647545504]

JEZZZZZZZUS

[10phone2]

Right. They also live in a nice area and really only go out to hardward stores since they just go down there to work on the house, but still.