Kevin R. Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 So, with all this shit happening in the financial sector with AIG/Merrill Lynch/Lehman Brothers (everyone) going down the shitter and the government stepping in to help; what would you guys say are some themes in the market today? I did a small study on this approx. 8 months ago and my top three themes were the rapid increase in oil prices, the real estate "crisis", and how everything was leading to the rise of inflation and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. I don't really see any of these that QUITE apply as well as they did 8 months ago any more and am interested to see what those of you that follow this stuff think are some of the current "themes" in the market today? I know there can be some intelligent conversation on CR I promise I'll never initiate this again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LJ Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 Theme? Credit crisis is worse, dollar strengthened and oil weakened, killing the only 2 things keeping our GDP positive, cheap exports and a boom in the energy industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin R. Posted September 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 Theme? Credit crisis is worse, dollar strengthened and oil weakened, killing the only 2 things keeping our GDP positive, cheap exports and a boom in the energy industry. I agree the credit crisis is worse off than before. I guess I am in the dark on this one, how does the dollar strengthening and crude oil going down lead the drop in GDP? I am honestly curious and don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LJ Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 I agree the credit crisis is worse off than before. I guess I am in the dark on this one, how does the dollar strengthening and crude oil going down lead the drop in GDP? I am honestly curious and don't know. High crude prices oil companies were hiring like crazy... like a normal boom, prices had been increasing steadily for a while. Weaker dollar meant it was cheaper for other countries to buy our products, therefore we moved from the #10 exporter to the #2 exporter in the world in 1 quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin R. Posted September 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 High crude prices oil companies were hiring like crazy... like a normal boom, prices had been increasing steadily for a while. Weaker dollar meant it was cheaper for other countries to buy our products, therefore we moved from the #10 exporter to the #2 exporter in the world in 1 quarter. Interesting. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Karacho1647545492 Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 boy i wish we had a subforum for this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dragknee66 Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 boy i wish we had a subforum for this i dont Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpfiend Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 I do- Where did you find out that we moved up from #10 to #2? How are we as far as importing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Science Abuse Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 No one is spending, because we can't really afford to. Fuel and basic costs of living are absorbing the funds that normally went to buy nice things that stimulated the economy. The banks that have hit bottom did so because of sub-prime lending risks biting them in the ass. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hpfiend Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 yes but people aren't saving either because A) they dont have the money as you mentioned or B) those that do have the money aren't going to put it in a bank because the interest rates are so low there is no incentive with inflation as it is... that is why banks are failing- in addition to the subprime lending you mentioned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LJ Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 I do- Where did you find out that we moved up from #10 to #2? How are we as far as importing? I'll have to find the report again... it's a pain in the ass to find because NO media sources reported on it, but the DOW was up around 300 points that day. Importing had dropped or stayed the same. Germany was #1 in exports, lol.... damn engineering Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LJ Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 No one is spending, because we can't really afford to. Fuel and basic costs of living are absorbing the funds that normally went to buy nice things that stimulated the economy. The banks that have hit bottom did so because of sub-prime lending risks biting them in the ass. Actually, the majority of people that I have talked to... from the childhood friend with 3 kids that barely has work to the guy who lives in a paid off 6000 sq ft house, they aren't spending money because they are scared. Scared that everything is going to crash, scared they are going to lose their jobs. They can afford the gas and the food, but that is all they are willing to spend their money on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin R. Posted September 18, 2008 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 boy i wish we had a subforum for this How is this political? I guess in a sense but I didn't want it be thrown in with Thorne's "Palin is a lying skank ho-bag omg" threads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Science Abuse Posted September 18, 2008 Report Share Posted September 18, 2008 How is this political? It's macroeconomics, but you're right, it doesn't need to be filed away with the crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conesmasher Posted September 19, 2008 Report Share Posted September 19, 2008 So, with all this shit happening in the financial sector with AIG/Merrill Lynch/Lehman Brothers (everyone) going down the shitter and the government stepping in to help; what would you guys say are some themes in the market today? I did a small study on this approx. 8 months ago and my top three themes were the rapid increase in oil prices, the real estate "crisis", and how everything was leading to the rise of inflation and the weakening of the U.S. dollar. I don't really see any of these that QUITE apply as well as they did 8 months ago any more and am interested to see what those of you that follow this stuff think are some of the current "themes" in the market today? I know there can be some intelligent conversation on CR I promise I'll never initiate this again. Well the real estate crisis has led a the banking fiasco. Many have known about this, but this crisis really need a couple of big pins to fall down before the true effects were known. So many banks are reliant on their stock prices and their real estate values for their ability to lend credit, that when their asset base plunges so quickly, it's more like a liquidity crisis. Oil is falling based on the issues with the US economy. I still say 2.99 gas before December 31st. They want to make sure that we stay addicted to oil. Drilling bills + aleternative energy = OPEC begining to wonder if we're serious about other fuel sources. The word is..........the next banking crisis is the "credit card crunch". This is next place people are over extended. http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/18/news/economy/Colvin_next_credit_crunch.fortune/index.htm Read up. It's cyclical to me. I know it's not visible to everyone else, but if your paying attention, you can see if from a mile away. I'm CC debt free, so I'm not in these shoes. I hope for your own sake, most of you aren't ankle deep in CC debt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LJ Posted September 19, 2008 Report Share Posted September 19, 2008 Well the real estate crisis has led a the banking fiasco. Many have known about this, but this crisis really need a couple of big pins to fall down before the true effects were known. So many banks are reliant on their stock prices and their real estate values for their ability to lend credit, that when their asset base plunges so quickly, it's more like a liquidity crisis. Oil is falling based on the issues with the US economy. I still say 2.99 gas before December 31st. They want to make sure that we stay addicted to oil. Drilling bills + aleternative energy = OPEC begining to wonder if we're serious about other fuel sources. The word is..........the next banking crisis is the "credit card crunch". This is next place people are over extended. http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/18/news/economy/Colvin_next_credit_crunch.fortune/index.htm Read up. It's cyclical to me. I know it's not visible to everyone else, but if your paying attention, you can see if from a mile away. I'm CC debt free, so I'm not in these shoes. I hope for your own sake, most of you aren't ankle deep in CC debt. As my dad has been saying "cash will be king" I only have old CC debt that is being paid down. People who have higher salaries and live off of cash will be fine while people overextending will begin to struggle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conesmasher Posted September 19, 2008 Report Share Posted September 19, 2008 As my dad has been saying "cash will be king" I only have old CC debt that is being paid down. People who have higher salaries and live off of cash will be fine while people overextending will begin to struggle Exactly. Cash is king. That's rule number one in finance. Many folks have lived beyond their means for quite awhile, with second mortgages, HELOC's, and CC's. Falsifying their standard of living..... It seems that all will be well in the end......and if not, let's head north to live with the Canadian commies.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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