Mini prepping. (Covid-19 thread)

[Tpoppa]

49 minutes ago, what said:

How are they testing? Are they still testing or just saying good enough? Lots of videos of vans piled high with corpses making their way around the internet where mom/dad/grandma/grandpa didnt make it. 

Well they did report about 3000 deaths.  That would fill a few vans.

But yeah, accurate data out of China was an issue long before this.

[TimTheAzn]

5 minutes ago, Steve Butters said:

I'm just waiting for my employer to let me work remote.... Shit

Sameee. 

[NinjaDoc]

1 hour ago, SpecialEd said:

And just how is this disease deadlier than the flu as some assert? I don't get it.

When you have flu like thingy your nose sinuses close up right? Few squirts Of spray few sneezes and back to breathing better. 
 

now Imagine the same inflammation spreading all the way to the major and minute airways in the lungs and plugging up everything. And No way to clear it up and clean up and imagine how breathing is going to be. 

[what]

19 minutes ago, NinjaDoc said:

When you have flu like thingy your nose sinuses close up right? Few squirts Of spray few sneezes and back to breathing better. 
 

now Imagine the same inflammation spreading all the way to the major and minute airways in the lungs and plugging up everything. And No way to clear it up and clean up and imagine how breathing is going to be. 

I almost died from croup when I was 7 or 8, like I was blue and could not physically inhale or exhale and had to be intubated. Same experience as what a bad case of covid19 will do.

I still remember being in and out of consciousness, hearing a priest praying over me and realizing that might be it. Was not great, dont want to do it again.

[Tpoppa]

Just a bit of perspective....

China's population is approx 1.4 Billion.  In 3 months, there have about 81,000 cases which equates to 0.006% of the Chinese Population (1% of China's population would be 14,000,000)

US population is about 327 Million.  About 1,300 cases in the US which equates to 0.0004% of the US Population (1% of the US population would be 3.2 million).

That's cases not deaths.   Reason to be concerned...absolutely.  Reason to lose your fucking minds and cause an economic meltdown...absolutely fucking not.  Feel free to check my math.

 

Probably the most accurate data source available:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html?fbclid=IwAR2B5QOYzmsIVK8KjrziR6idZgbXNFqT1xkUb2NtUD9a1gcWYpk4FJ_BmuY

Edited March 12, 2020 by Tpoppa

[Tonik]

We just went full work from home except our SOC. We have a plan for them but for now the idea is we vacate to help keep them safer.

[TimTheAzn]

6 minutes ago, Tonik said:

We just went full work from home except our SOC. We have a plan for them but for now the idea is we vacate to help keep them safer.

Someone needs to tell my boss to get with the program.

[what]

20 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

Just a bit of perspective....

China's population is approx 1.4 Billion.  In 3 months, there have about 81,000 cases which equates to 0.006% of the Chinese Population (1% of China's population would be 14,000,000)

US population is about 327 Million.  About 1,300 cases in the US which equates to 0.0004% of the US Population (1% of the US population would be 3.2 million).

That's cases not deaths.   Reason to be concerned...absolutely.  Reason to lose your fucking minds and cause an economic meltdown...absolutely fucking not.  Feel free to check my math.

 

Probably the most accurate data source available:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html?fbclid=IwAR2B5QOYzmsIVK8KjrziR6idZgbXNFqT1xkUb2NtUD9a1gcWYpk4FJ_BmuY

The issue is theres no way to know who actually has it out of the wider population due to diagnosis guidelines being fairly lax in some areas and testing not being widely available. They will only list cases they can verify. If you only have 1000 test kits you can only verify 1000 cases even if it is widespread. The overall case numbers are widely useless. The only meaningful data I can see them getting from the current public numbers is the mortality rate from proven cases, and mortality demographics. 

[Tpoppa]

3 minutes ago, what said:

The issue is theres no way to know who actually has it out of the wider population due to diagnosis guidelines being fairly lax in some areas and testing not being widely available. They will only list cases they can verify. If you only have 1000 test kits you can only verify 1000 cases even if it is widespread. The overall case numbers are widely useless. The only meaningful data I can see them getting from the current public numbers is the mortality rate from proven cases, and mortality demographics. 

I agree that there could be more cases than reported.  I disagree with your conclusion about mortality rates.

Even if you doubled the cases in China that still 12-thousanths of a single percent in 3 months.  

I'll be very surprised of cases spread in the US at the same rate as what was 'reported' in China.

 

 

[what]

10 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

I agree that there could be more cases than reported.  I disagree with your conclusion about mortality rates.

Even if you doubled the cases in China that still 12-thousanths of a single percent in 3 months.  

I'll be very surprised of cases spread in the US at the same rate as what was 'reported' in China.

 

 

Italy is probably going to be the best estimate of what we will see here within the next 2 weeks. 

[Tpoppa]

17 minutes ago, what said:

The issue is theres no way to know who actually has it out of the wider population due to diagnosis guidelines being fairly lax in some areas and testing not being widely available. They will only list cases they can verify. If you only have 1000 test kits you can only verify 1000 cases even if it is widespread. The overall case numbers are widely useless. The only meaningful data I can see them getting from the current public numbers is the mortality rate from proven cases, and mortality demographics. 

...and if your assumption is true that there really are more cases than known or reported that would mean the percentage of fatalities is even lower.  Because fatalities can be more easily counted, correct?

IE...if there were twice the cases; the fatality rate is cut in half.

[what]

41 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

...and if your assumption is true that there really are more cases than known or reported that would mean the percentage of fatalities is even lower.  Because fatalities can be more easily counted, correct?

IE...if there were twice the cases; the fatality rate is cut in half.

They wouldnt be counted as covid19 deaths if the patient was never diagnosed with covid19

[Bad324]

I for one and glad with all the precautions they are taking. Take a couple weeks of everyone staying the fuck away from each other, snuff this fucker out and hopefully go on with our lives come April

[NinjaDoc]

yes panic is bad, its bad whtr its small scale as in small fire in our own home or whtr national lvl pandemic is spreading. Common sense + great judgement +  immediate controlled action + overall good IQ/EQ  is the difference between saving the house or saving the mass of at risk population. Problem is overall its boils down to us being mere humans again. Humans are flawed. We make fun of chicken running around headless or deer jumping righ into the car when panicked not realizing we do the same in a different lvl. 

When looking at bigger picture and statistics, question is >> Is the over reaction justified, may be the simple answer is yes. No body wants their loved ones to be counted among the small numerator no matter how small the number is. As in 1/1000 or 1/100000 doesnt matter if that 1 is your parent or older sibling. 

just like lottery > the difference between who wins a lottery and who will never win a lottery no matter how very very minuscule the chance is that one guy bought it and another didnt. 

lets just hope this blows over just like most other scares we been seeing. More than likely it will, I would rather be happy people are over prepared than under prepared. All essential services will keep going, its not going to be a world war scenario, streets not going to be empty, people not going to starve and die, people who really have to work and whose work is essential will keep working until they are sick.  A volatile thing like Stock market is not at all a judgement, viable marker or good measuring stick of humanities response to call for survival. It will bounce back in due course. Just like master card says , hand soap 1000$, toilet tissues 2000$ .. saving family from some fake, hyped up, simple flu ... priceless. 

[Tpoppa]

46 minutes ago, NinjaDoc said:

lets just hope this blows over just like most other scares we been seeing. More than likely it will, I would rather be happy people are over prepared than under prepared. All essential services will keep going, its not going to be a world war scenario, streets not going to be empty, people not going to starve and die, people who really have to work and whose work is essential will keep working until they are sick.  A volatile thing like Stock market is not at all a judgement, viable marker or good measuring stick of humanities response to call for survival. It will bounce back in due course. Just like master card says , hand soap 1000$, toilet tissues 2000$ .. saving family from some fake, hyped up, simple flu ... priceless. 

I think the government actions like travel bans and limiting gathering sizes are justified.  The point is containment...incremental, half measures would be pointless.

The over-prepared-ness and panic is absolutely causing significant economic collateral damage.   I am not worried about corporate America, it s very likely that the stock market will bounce back.  OTOH, many small businesses (restaurants, bars, shops, barbers, etc ) and people living paycheck to paycheck will not bounce back.  Businesses will be shuttered and houses will be foreclosed over this panic.  That will ripple through our economy for years and have a greater effect than the virus itself.  

Panic and herd mentality over 6 thousanths of a percent will have a lasting impact on large swaths of the population.   

 

 

[motocat12]

1 hour ago, Bad324 said:

I for one and glad with all the precautions they are taking. Take a couple weeks of everyone staying the fuck away from each other, snuff this fucker out and hopefully go on with our lives come April

are international travelers banned after those couple weeks?

[NinjaDoc]

38 minutes ago, Tpoppa said:

I think the government actions like travel bans and limiting gathering sizes are justified.  The point is containment...incremental, half measures would be pointless.

The over-prepared-ness and panic is absolutely causing significant economic collateral damage.   I am not worried about corporate America, it s very likely that the stock market will bounce back.  OTOH, many small businesses (restaurants, bars, shops, barbers, etc ) and people living paycheck to paycheck will not bounce back.  Businesses will be shuttered and houses will be foreclosed over this panic.  That will ripple through our economy for years and have a greater effect than the virus itself.  

Panic and herd mentality over 6 thousanths of a percent will have a lasting impact on large swaths of the population.   

We Panicking about Other people over panicking  is also not going to solve any issues. Yes there will be slow down in every sector but as a nation and majority run by day to day work there is no way to afford shutting it down.  When the choice is between get disease vs starve people would choose get the disease. The disease does not debilitate the Healthy young,  they will if they have to go to work keep going no matter what since alternate option is starving to death. Disease is not going to affect the wealthy old, they will let things keep running. It’s all not going to be sunshine and green grass, it will sure have its impact. Just like anything is this world, this also has pros and cons. Effect lies on the spectrum of good to bad. There are no right answers, to this question of how to solve this,  just answers that linker in grey zone. 
 

China was trying to keep it hush hush and not raise panic etc and go for containment and we are paying the price for that strategy. 

[snot]

The market was due to be shaken... The auto industry has been unstable for a couple of years, a large percentage of car loans were past due before this. Lots were over stuffed with inventory. Jobs were starting to decline in automotive factories.

People spend a lot of money on dumb stuff instead of paying bills. If this forces them to save a little from not going "shopping" or shipping taking 3 times longer, so be it.

When all the games continue and life starts again beyond our homes, people will be ready to start sending again. The market will bounce back.

Maybe, just maybe this will teach us how to work together, how to help each other, not just as a country but as the World. Maybe people will learn basic hygiene and proper disinfecting to prevent the spread of other diseases... Maybe people will vaccinate their kids again.

One fact, motorcycle season is coming. Get your bikes and gear ready (while you are working from home).

[Pauly]

I travel to Spokane next week. It's been fun, y'all. 

[NinjaDoc]

My brain had to give you guys the alarmist view point the healthcare is adopting to curb this infection. I agree with them just based on the current view point. And continue to follow the hyper precautions . But to be quite honest my heart and personal experience is telling me the virus was here even before the alarms and notoriety. Was seeing cases in hospital which was coming back negative for flu but fit all the bills for bad viral - lung  picture. Some cases even young people getting infected and presenting with caked out lungs. This was even December January period way before alarms went off. If infact that’s the case probably thousands of Ohioans already have it and it still hasn’t resulted in pandemonium. Now that we started testing for it we started finding it. If not we would have charted it as bad case of atypical flu or something. But this is just pure anecdotal personal view point of mine. 

[Tpoppa]

20 minutes ago, NinjaDoc said:

My brain had to give you guys the alarmist view point the healthcare is adopting to curb this infection. I agree with them just based on the current view point. And continue to follow the hyper precautions . But to be quite honest my heart and personal experience is telling me the virus was here even before the alarms and notoriety. Was seeing cases in hospital which was coming back negative for flu but fit all the bills for bad viral - lung  picture. Some cases even young people getting infected and presenting with caked out lungs. This was even December January period way before alarms went off. If infact that’s the case probably thousands of Ohioans already have it and it still hasn’t resulted in pandemonium. Now that we started testing for it we started finding it. If not we would have charted it as bad case of atypical flu or something. But this is just pure anecdotal personal view point of mine. 

I agree with a lot of that Nivin.

As a physician there are perspectives you should support to be the best physician you can be.  

My ex wife is a physician.  I was/am friends with many from her med school class.

My opinion on coronavirus makes me a level headed-non panicking-big picture thinking American, but not appropriate for someone who is responsible for treating people that need help.

[Wojo72]

16 hours ago, motocat12 said:

We just went into WFH mode so I have less to complain about there. 

I'm in the same boat.  Originally they were going to divide the IT teams into A and B with alternating days in the office.  That changed to full WFH for for office folks.   The news that the virus can survive for a couple of days on surfaces pushed them over the edge.

 

[Tpoppa]

I decided to pivot my for sale add.

 

[TimTheAzn]

13 hours ago, Wojo72 said:

I'm in the same boat.  Originally they were going to divide the IT teams into A and B with alternating days in the office.  That changed to full WFH for for office folks.   The news that the virus can survive for a couple of days on surfaces pushed them over the edge.

 

My job has still yet to say a damn thing.

[2talltim]

10 minutes ago, TimTheAzn said:

My job has still yet to say a damn thing.

We had a 15 min meeting today for them to tell us "we are monitoring the situation" ...worthless